{
 "name": "Afrimintel demand & market layer",
 "feed_version": "1.0.0",
 "dataset_version": "v2.53.0",
 "note": "Per-commodity demand, supply-balance, price-context and security-of-supply synthesis grounded entirely in named public primary sources (IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025; World Gold Council; World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook; De Beers/Anglo American filings; industry market reports). This is a SOURCED PUBLIC-DATA SYNTHESIS, not a proprietary forward-curve model — every figure carries a named source and vintage; where a clean primary figure is absent it is marked Absent, never invented. Three-state throughout. World-production context per commodity added at v2.136.62 from World Mining Data 2026 (Sourced; data year 2024).",
 "quality_standard": "Sourced / Derived / Absent — no invented demand figures",
 "commodities": [
  {
   "id": "Cu",
   "label": "Copper",
   "direction": "structural-deficit",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "Demand +30% to 2040 (largest established critical-minerals market); grid investment + electrification primary drivers",
    "source": "IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Potential ~30% supply shortfall by 2035 — declining ore grades, rising capex, limited new discoveries, long lead times; the single most-flagged supply concern",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "Record ~US$14,500/t (Jan 2026), +40% in 2025; ICSG abandoned surplus call, now forecasts a 2026 deficit",
    "source": "mining.com May 2026; ICSG",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "grid/electrification",
    "EVs",
    "renewables build-out",
    "AI-driven data-centre power"
   ],
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "DRC + Zambia ~6% of global reserves but fastest-growing supply; mining less China-concentrated than refining",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025; African Green Minerals Observatory",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "high-priority",
    "note": "Several Western DFIs state critical-minerals supply-security objectives in their published strategies; African copper features in those strategies."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Strongest flagship-sector case on the public evidence. Structural deficit + electrification demand makes African copper the highest-conviction transition-metal exposure for development finance.",
   "flagships": [
    "kamoa-kakula",
    "kansanshi",
    "khoemacau-z5",
    "motheo",
    "sentinel",
    "tenke-fungurume"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 22911145,
    "unit": "metr. t Cu content",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 8.81,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "Co",
   "label": "Cobalt",
   "direction": "improving-but-oversupplied",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "Demand +50-60% by 2040 (≈3x by 2035); battery-driven, though chemistry shift (LFP) is a structural headwind",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Near-term OVERSUPPLY — CMOC ramped DRC output well above stated capacity; long-term deficit risk by 2035 but narrowing as projects are planned",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025; Cobalt Institute 2024",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "Prices fell ~10-20% in 2024 on DRC oversupply; DRC export-quota actions a key 2025-26 swing factor",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "EV batteries (NMC)",
    "superalloys"
   ],
   "_headwind": "LFP battery share gain reduces cobalt intensity",
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "DRC ~70% of global mined supply; China dominant in refining",
    "china_share": "refining majority",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "high",
    "note": "DRC holds one of the highest single-country production concentrations in critical minerals (mined cobalt); co-product economics tie cobalt to copper projects."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Selective. Demand is real but near-term oversupply + DRC concentration mean cobalt is best underwritten as a copper co-product, not a standalone thesis.",
   "flagships": [
    "tenke-fungurume"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 268755,
    "unit": "metr. t Co content",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 107.24,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "Ag",
   "label": "Silver",
   "direction": "deficit-leaning",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "Demand rising on safe-haven + industrial; industrial uses >50% of demand (solar, semiconductors)",
    "source": "World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook Oct 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Demand expected to outpace gradual supply growth; prices +~34% (2025) and +~8% (2026 forecast)",
    "source": "World Bank CMO Oct 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "Record ~US$54/oz mid-Oct 2025; gold/silver ratio compressed below 60x for first time in a decade",
    "source": "World Bank CMO; CME Group 2026",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "solar PV",
    "semiconductors",
    "safe-haven investment"
   ],
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "Largely a by-product of base-metal and gold mining — supply is inelastic to silver price",
    "source": "World Bank CMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "moderate",
    "note": "Co-product at Khoemacau (Zone 5 19.75 g/t Ag) — adds margin, not a standalone driver."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Supportive co-product. Strengthens copper-silver project economics; not underwritten standalone.",
   "flagships": [
    "khoemacau-z5"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 27108325,
    "unit": "kg Ag",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 2.22,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "Graphite",
   "label": "Graphite",
   "direction": "balanced-concentrated",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "Demand ~doubles by 2040 (battery anode); battery ~10% of graphite demand by 2030",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Announced projects may cover demand pre-2035 if on schedule; near-term prices fell ~10-20% in 2024",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "Flake/anode prices soft in 2024; structural support from anode demand longer-term",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "EV battery anodes",
    "refractories",
    "steel"
   ],
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "China ~80% of battery-grade graphite refining — the highest single-country processing concentration; export controls a live risk",
    "china_share": "~80% battery-grade",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "high",
    "note": "China refining dominance + 2023-25 export-control actions make ex-China natural-flake supply (Balama) strategically valuable."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Strategically attractive on security-of-supply grounds despite soft spot prices — the ex-China anode-feedstock thesis is the underwriting case.",
   "flagships": [
    "balama-graphite"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 1685817,
    "unit": "metr. t",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 21.21,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "Li",
   "label": "Lithium",
   "direction": "near-term-oversupply-then-deficit",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "Demand grows ~5x by 2040 (STEPS); EVs ~80% of lithium demand growth",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Well-supplied/oversupplied near term (2025), projected into DEFICIT by the 2030s; new-project prospects stronger than copper",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "Prices fell >80% since 2023 after the 2021-22 8x spike — current weakness is the key risk to greenfield economics",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "EV batteries",
    "grid storage"
   ],
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "China processes 60-90% of refined lithium; mining more diversified (Australia, Chile, Africa emerging)",
    "china_share": ">60% refined",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "high",
    "note": "DRC Manono is a world-class hard-rock resource but price weakness + contested ownership are the binding constraints, not geology."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Long-term yes, near-term cautious. The 2030s deficit thesis is real, but today's >80% price drawdown means timing and balance-sheet resilience dominate the decision.",
   "flagships": [
    "manono-lithium-district"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 601914,
    "unit": "metr. t Li2O content",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 221.88,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "REE",
   "label": "Rare earths (NdPr)",
   "direction": "supply-adequate-but-security-critical",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "Demand +50-60% by 2040 (NdPr for permanent magnets — EVs, wind, defence)",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Project pipeline appears adequate to 2035 on paper — BUT supply concentration is the binding vulnerability, not tonnage",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "NdPr oxide ~US$110/kg range (Apr 2026); price is policy- and export-control-sensitive",
    "source": "SMM via Afrimintel commodities layer; IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "EV traction motors",
    "wind turbines",
    "defence/electronics"
   ],
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "China ~80% of refined rare earths; Dec-2024/2025 export controls on heavy REEs to the US",
    "china_share": "~80% refined",
    "source": "IEA GCMO 2025",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "critical",
    "note": "The single most security-sensitive flagship commodity — ex-China REE supply (Ngualla) is strategically prized regardless of headline price; Shenghe 19.9%+offtake is itself the China-exposure flag."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "High strategic priority for Western DFIs on security-of-supply grounds — but note the disclosed Shenghe offtake and shareholding at Ngualla when assessing supply-security objectives.",
   "flagships": [
    "ngualla-ree"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 398008,
    "unit": "metr. t REO content",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 73.13,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "Au",
   "label": "Gold",
   "direction": "structurally-supported",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "Investment + central-bank demand structurally supported by geopolitical risk, de-dollarisation and inflation hedging",
    "source": "World Gold Council Q1 2026 Outlook",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Central banks bought ~850-863t in 2025 (vs 2010-21 avg ~473t); WGC 2026 official-sector target 700-900t; mine supply grows only modestly",
    "source": "World Gold Council; J.P. Morgan; Capital.com",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "Spot ~US$4,530/oz (Jun 2026), +~34% YoY; ATH ~US$5,595 (Jan 2026); 2026 bank targets cluster US$4,800-6,300, Reuters poll median ~US$4,916",
    "source": "WGC; J.P. Morgan; Reuters poll; Capital.com",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "central-bank reserve diversification",
    "geopolitical hedging",
    "inflation hedge",
    "Asian investment demand"
   ],
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "Geographically diversified production; no single-country processing concentration",
    "source": "World Gold Council",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "low",
    "note": "Not a security-of-supply commodity; the thesis is price and cash-margin, which is currently very strong."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Strong cash-generative exposure at current prices — African gold producers throw off margin that underwrites well; production and processing are geographically diversified.",
   "flagships": [
    "obuasi",
    "sukari-au",
    "south-deep"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 3331141,
    "unit": "kg Au",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 3.99,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "Potash",
   "label": "Potash / SOP",
   "direction": "steady-growth",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "SOP is the fastest-growing potash segment (~5.8-6.1% CAGR to 2031); chloride-free premium for high-value crops; food-security demand (population to 9.7bn by 2050)",
    "source": "Mordor Intelligence; MarketDataForecast 2026",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Tight global potash supply — Belarus sanctions + concentrated production (Canada/Russia/Belarus); MOP ~US$488/t (Mar 2026, highest since Feb 2023), SOP at a premium",
    "source": "World Bank; Investing News Apr 2026",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "MOP firmed to ~US$488/t Mar 2026; SOP trades at a notable premium to MOP; energy-cost-sensitive (Mannheim process)",
    "source": "World Bank Commodity data; Expert Market Research 2026",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "food security / population growth",
    "high-value horticulture",
    "precision agriculture",
    "Asia + Africa subsidies"
   ],
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "Production concentrated in Canada, Russia, Belarus, China; Belarus sanctions keep balance tight",
    "source": "Grand View; Mordor 2026",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "moderate",
    "note": "Eritrea Colluli is a rare primary-SOP (not Mannheim-conversion) resource — structurally low-cost IF developed; but ownership transferred and DFS is stale."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Sound long-horizon agricultural-security thesis with steady fundamentals — but Colluli specifically is gated by stale economics + ownership change, not by the commodity.",
   "flagships": [
    "colluli-potash"
   ],
   "world_production": {
    "value": 47679161,
    "unit": "metr. t K2O",
    "data_year": 2024,
    "change_2020_2024_pct": 6.55,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "World Mining Data 2026, Vol. 41 (Austrian Federal Ministry of Finance, Reichl & Schatz; publ. Vienna, Apr 2026; data year 2024)",
    "note": "Recoverable content basis per WMD conventions (not ROM/concentrate). Per-commodity producer-country concentration indices ((mod)HHI(ct), WMD ch. 6.5) identified as the neutral concentration metric for this layer — extraction from the WMD Excel dataset queued (operator item); not restated here unverified."
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "Diamonds",
   "label": "Diamonds",
   "direction": "structural-decline",
   "demand_outlook": {
    "text": "STRUCTURAL demand erosion — lab-grown now ~50% of US engagement-ring volume and ~14% of US jewelry sales; Gen-Z/millennial preference shift may be permanent not cyclical",
    "source": "De Beers/Anglo 2025-26; National Jeweler; imaa-institute",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "supply_balance": {
    "text": "Producers cutting output to match weak demand — De Beers 2026 guidance cut to 21-26 Mct (from 26-29); reported rough price index -17% YoY and consolidated realised price -19% (Q1 2026); the -25% 'effective' index includes stock-rebalancing actions",
    "source": "De Beers Q1 2026 production report; Anglo American",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "price_context": {
    "text": "Natural diamond prices at lowest this century; De Beers Q1-2026 avg realised US$101/ct (-19%; reported price index -17%); lab-grown 1-ct ~US$750-1,000 vs natural ~US$4,200",
    "source": "De Beers Q1 2026; TheStreet Apr 2026",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "drivers": [
    "luxury/bridal (eroding)",
    "provenance/premium segment (relatively resilient)"
   ],
   "_headwind": "lab-grown substitution at ~90% price discount",
   "supply_concentration": {
    "text": "De Beers (Anglo 85%/Botswana 15%) historically set price discipline; Anglo actively divesting (~US$4.1bn, below writedowns); sovereign bidders (Botswana/Angola/Namibia) could erode price discipline",
    "source": "De Beers; Anglo American; Ecofin Feb 2026",
    "state": "Sourced"
   },
   "security_of_supply": {
    "flag": "none",
    "note": "Not a security commodity; the issue is structural demand decline + ownership in flux."
   },
   "dfi_lens": "Weakest greenfield case on the public evidence. The honest read: structurally declining demand + price index at a century low + control in flux make new diamond exposure the weakest DFI case in the flagship set. Venetia is a producing legacy asset, not an investment thesis.",
   "flagships": [
    "venetia"
   ]
  }
 ],
 "disclaimer": "The 'DFI lens' lines are analysis to inform a decision on the public evidence — not investment advice, a recommendation, a rating or an underwriting. Demand projections for transition metals are anchored substantially to the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025; multi-source triangulation is a scheduled deepening.",
 "as_of": "2026-06-25"
}