{ "name": "Afrimintel DFI financeability layer", "feed_version": "1.0.0", "dataset_version": "v2.56.4", "as_of": "2026-06-25", "note": "DFI financeability of the 13-asset Africa development-gold + critical-minerals pipeline. Every cell is Sourced (named source), N/A (genuinely not-applicable, reason given), or Absent (honestly not in reviewed public disclosures) — no un-researched 'Pending'. Analysis, not investment advice. v2.55.0 adds time-to-cashflow (gestation), deal-structure (state participation + fiscal regime + observed capital stack), DFI-mandate eligibility, and committee-grade provenance per asset.", "quality_standard": "Sourced / Derived (capital-need from sponsor) / Pending / Historic", "assets": [ { "id": "assafou", "dfi_stage": "DFS (Apr 2026) complete / pre-FID (FID targeted end-2026, then 24–30mo build)", "sponsor": { "value": "Endeavour Mining", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "major", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "None / N/A", "state": "N/A", "basis": "N/A — Endeavour Mining (LSE/TSX: EDV) major; cornerstone asset to be funded from balance sheet/corporate facilities; no DFI in capital structure" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 1060, "state": "Sourced", "src": "FS/study capex" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — Endeavour Mining (LSE/TSX: EDV) major; cornerstone asset to be funded from balance sheet/corporate facilities; no DFI in capital structure", "state": "N/A", "src": "Endeavour Mining DFS (Apr 2026)" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Early works launched (long-lead orders, detailed engineering, key tenders); FID targeted end-2026; corporate-funded (Endeavour)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "cornerstone-asset scale cited; Endeavour has not published quantified jobs/GDP/fiscal figures in reviewed disclosures (DFS Apr 2026; self-funded major)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "DFS → pre-FID", "fid": "targeted end-2026", "first_prod": "~2029 (24-30mo build)", "ytc": "~3 yr", "risk": "LOW — corporate-funded (Endeavour); FID-gated", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Côte d'Ivoire state participation per 2014 code", "fiscal": "CIV: sliding-scale gold royalty; 2014 code under revision", "fiscal_state": "Derived (2014 code)", "stack": "Endeavour balance sheet / corporate facilities; no DFI", "nat": "MEDIUM" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Côte d'Ivoire is an EBRD country of operation (since Jul 2025); EBRD has CIV mining projects in pipeline incl. equity in exploration (Devex/EBRD May 2026)", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Company PR / announcement (committee pulls filing)", "docs_pinned": "1 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Company DFS announcement — full technical report not pinned", "citable": false }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "baomahun", "dfi_stage": "construction (~30% complete at Dec-2025 financial close) / first gold 2026", "sponsor": { "value": "FG Gold (private)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior/private", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Funded", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Financing CLOSED Dec 2025 (~$430m African-DFI) — new DFI window closed; showcase of a completed African-DFI mining deal, ~30% construction, first gold 2026" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 430, "state": "Sourced", "src": "~US$430m total DFI package (AFC+Afrexim)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "AFC + Afreximbank US$330m senior debt — FINANCIAL CLOSE & first drawdown 1 Dec 2025; plus AFC US$100m (streaming + mezzanine, incl. $55m mezz Jan 2024) + Afreximbank US$75m term loan (Oct 2024) = ~US$430m African-DFI investment; +US$20m equity from Fundo Soberano de Angola (Angola SWF); Trafigura capital; CrossBoundary Energy funds the hybrid-renewable power. AFC led/structured.", "state": "Sourced", "src": "AFC/Afreximbank/FG Gold PR 1 Dec 2025" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold doped to doré/refiner at spot; no concentrate offtake agreement required", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "FUNDED — financial close Dec 2025; ~30% construction complete; first gold targeted 2026", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": "~10% of Sierra Leone GDP during operations; up to 900 direct+indirect jobs; 90% local employment; 1% gross-revenue Community Development Fund; hybrid-renewable power (~380kt CO2 avoided/20yr)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "AFC/FG Gold PR Dec 2025", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "construction (~30%)", "fid": "taken", "first_prod": "2026", "ytc": "<1 yr", "risk": "LOW — financed Dec 2025, in build", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Sierra Leone state participation per Mines & Minerals Act", "fiscal": "Sierra Leone: tax-royalty regime; project-specific terms", "fiscal_state": "Derived (regional norm; exact terms not surfaced)", "stack": "FULL DFI STACK: AFC+Afreximbank $330m senior debt (close 1 Dec 2025) + AFC $100m (mezz/stream) + Afrexim $75m term + Angola SWF $20m equity + Trafigura + CrossBoundary (power)", "nat": "MEDIUM" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Absent (no figure to defend)", "docs_pinned": "2 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design." }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing", "detail": "AFC + Afreximbank US$330m senior debt — at financial close", "note": "DFI-validated proof point — main debt committed or at financial close; limited room for a NEW DFI cheque. Strongest evidence the asset cleared a real DFI screen, not an open origination opportunity." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$430m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "AFC + Afreximbank US$330m senior debt — at financial close", "basis": "Actual committed/closing DFI/ECA facility (Sourced from financeability dfis_ecas) — supersedes the indicative capex-geared band now that debt is in place." }, "readiness": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing — DFI/ECA debt committed or at financial close; underwriting validated by the lenders, not indicative.", "basis": "Where a DFI/ECA facility is committed or closing, the asset is past origination; the indicative capex band does not apply." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Absent", "value": "post-tax NPV not in the public disclosures reviewed — economics anchor pending" } } }, { "id": "colluli-potash", "dfi_stage": "DFS 2015 (stale) / pre-development under new owner", "sponsor": { "value": "SRBG / ENAMCO (state JV)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "state-JV", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "High (capital); no Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "HISTORIC (under prior owner Danakali, now exited 2023): AFC US$150m + AFC/Afreximbank US$200m senior debt (Dec 2019). Current owners: SRBG (Sichuan provincial SOE) 50% + ENAMCO (Eritrea state) 50%. No current Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed. (Note: prior basis string was stored truncated" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "HISTORIC (under prior owner Danakali, now exited 2023): AFC US$150m + AFC/Afreximbank US$200m senior debt (Dec 2019). Current owners: SRBG (Sichuan provincial SOE) 50% + ENAMCO (Eritrea state) 50%. No current Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed.", "state": "Sourced (historic)", "src": "AFC PR (Dec 2019) / FCA RNS — historic" }, "offtake": { "value": "EuroChem SOP offtake (historic, agreed under Danakali ownership); status under SRBG/ENAMCO not re-confirmed", "state": "Sourced (historic)" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 302, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Module I FEED (~$298-302m)" }, "ownership": { "value": "CMSC = SRBG 50% / ENAMCO (Eritrea state) 50%; Danakali exited 2023", "state": "Sourced" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Restructured under SRBG/ENAMCO; historic AFC/Afrexim package was under Danakali (exited 2023). Current funding path not publicly defined.", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical (potash / SOP fertiliser)", "development_impact": { "value": "UNDP-funded independent study (2018): ~3% of Eritrean GDP by 2021; exports ~US$537m ≈ 50% of national exports by 2030; fiscal ~US$204m/yr by 2026; local procurement ~US$189m/yr by 2026; ~10,000 indirect jobs; aligns with 13 of 17 SDGs; SOP supports food security (agriculture = 11% GDP / 80% of population). CAVEAT: assessed under Danakali ownership (exited 2023); value capture under SRBG/ENAMCO not re-confirmed", "state": "Sourced", "src": "UNDP Colluli SDG study 2018/2019", "impact_provenance": "Independently assessed (UNDP)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "DFS 2015 (stale) → pre-development", "fid": "undated", "first_prod": "undefined", "ytc": "long / stalled", "risk": "HIGH — DFS a decade stale; SRBG (Chinese SOE)+ENAMCO ownership; Eritrea sanctions/governance overlay", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Eritrea ENAMCO 50% (50/50 JV)", "fiscal": "Eritrea: 50% state JV (ENAMCO); fiscal terms project-specific", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "HISTORIC (Danakali era): AFC $150m equity + AFC/Afreximbank $200m senior debt (Dec 2019) + EuroChem offtake — predates SRBG/ENAMCO restructure", "nat": "HIGH — 50% state JV; Eritrea sanctions/governance" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "Owners: SRBG (Sichuan provincial SOE) 50% + ENAMCO (Eritrea state) 50%. The historic AFC/Afreximbank package was under prior owner Danakali (exited 2023). No current Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "Yes — critical (potash / SOP fertiliser)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Absent (no figure to defend)", "docs_pinned": "2 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design." }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "doropo", "dfi_stage": "FID (Mar 2026) / construction / first gold ~2028", "sponsor": { "value": "Resolute Mining", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "mid-major", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "None / N/A", "state": "N/A", "basis": "N/A — Resolute Mining (LSE/ASX: RSG) funding from balance sheet/corporate facilities; no DFI in capital structure" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 516, "state": "Sourced", "src": "FS/study capex" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — Resolute Mining (LSE/ASX: RSG) funding from balance sheet/corporate facilities; no DFI in capital structure", "state": "N/A", "src": "Resolute Mining" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "FID taken Mar 2026; corporate/balance-sheet funded (Resolute); construction underway, first gold ~2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": ">US$420m in government royalties + social-fund payments over LOM (at $3,000/oz base); peak construction workforce >1,500; >400 employees during operations; solar+battery power study to cut emissions", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Resolute DFS PR 15 Dec 2025", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "FID (Mar 2026) → construction", "fid": "taken Mar 2026", "first_prod": "~2028", "ytc": "~2 yr", "risk": "LOW — corporate-funded, FID taken; ML targeted early-2026", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Côte d'Ivoire state participation per 2014 code", "fiscal": "CIV: sliding-scale gold royalty; ML targeted early-2026", "fiscal_state": "Derived (2014 code)", "stack": "Resolute balance-sheet / corporate facilities; no DFI", "nat": "MEDIUM" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Côte d'Ivoire is an EBRD country of operation (since Jul 2025); EBRD has CIV mining projects in pipeline incl. equity in exploration (Devex/EBRD May 2026)", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Primary filing located (committee-citable)", "docs_pinned": "1 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Primary filing located — Resolute updated DFS PDF (Dec 2025) is the NPV source; committee-citable", "citable": true }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "ewoyaa", "dfi_stage": "development pre-FID — economics impaired by lithium price; ownership transition (Elevra→Huayou) May 2026", "sponsor": { "value": "Atlantic Lithium (+Elevra earn-in)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "High", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "N/A — no DFI. Development now to be sole-funded by Huayou Cobalt (Chinese strategic), replacing Elevra (ex-Piedmont) which is exiting amid arbitration; Huayou could indirectly control ~87% if deals close. Ghana MIIF ~US$27.9m for 6% (non-bi" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 185, "state": "Sourced", "src": "FS/study capex" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — no DFI. Development now to be sole-funded by Huayou Cobalt (Chinese strategic), replacing Elevra (ex-Piedmont) which is exiting amid arbitration; Huayou could indirectly control ~87% if deals close. Ghana MIIF ~US$27.9m for 6% (non-binding).", "state": "Sourced", "src": "MyJoyOnline / Elevra / NRGI (May–Jun 2026)" }, "offtake": { "value": "50% of LOM spodumene concentrate to Elevra→Huayou at market prices; remaining 50% uncommitted (investment bank engaged to monetise)", "state": "Sourced" }, "funding_status": { "value": "In transition — Huayou agreeing to sole-fund remaining development; MATERIAL: lithium-price crash cut spodumene to ~US$785/t (Q1 2025) vs US$1,587/t DFS assumption; Atlantic states IRR fell to ~13.6% and has requested Ghana fiscal concessions (royalty 10%→5%)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical (lithium)", "development_impact": { "value": "Ghana's first lithium mine; ~300 permanent jobs (~70% local hire); 1% of retained earnings to Community Development Fund; scholarships/healthcare/agriculture programmes; feldspar by-product (~10%) for domestic ceramics; >1,500 project-affected persons; mining lease RATIFIED by Ghana Parliament Mar 2026", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Atlantic Lithium / Fair Finance Intl Mar 2026", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "pre-FID (lease ratified Mar 2026)", "fid": "pending (post-ownership-transition)", "first_prod": "delayed (was 2025-26)", "ytc": "uncertain", "risk": "HIGH — ~3yr lease-ratification delay (now cleared); Elevra→Huayou ownership transition; lithium-price impairment (IRR 105%→~13.6%)", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Ghana 13% free-carried interest (confirmed Apr 2026); Chamber of Mines pushing to raise via MIIF — additional stake not yet confirmed", "fiscal": "Ghana: sliding-scale royalty (2025 Royalty Regs); growth-levy cut 3%→1% on gold (Mar 2026); Atlantic requested lithium royalty 10%→5%", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "Huayou (Chinese) sole-funding development (replacing Elevra) + MIIF ~$27.9m equity; no DFI", "nat": "MEDIUM — investor-friendly 2026 levy cut, but lithium-specific fiscal renegotiation ongoing" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "Control change pending: Huayou Cobalt to sole-fund remaining development, replacing Elevra; ~87% potential control if pending deals close (not closed). No DFI in the capital structure; Ghana MIIF ~US$27.9m for 6% (non-binding) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Ghana is in the EBRD accession process; operations/office expected 2026 (EBRD)", "energy_transition_aligned": "Yes — critical (lithium)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Primary filing located (committee-citable)", "docs_pinned": "3 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Filing located — DFS (republished); committee-citable with lithium-price caveat", "citable": true }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "EBRD", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "kabanga-ni", "dfi_stage": "FS complete / pre-FID (FID 2026)", "sponsor": { "value": "Lifezone Metals", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "High", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US DFC due-diligence complete Q1 2026; US EXIM + JOGMEC (Japan) engaged; Société Générale-led project-finance package; Standard Chartered strategic. Western-DFI/ECA-anchored (battery-supply-chain rationale)." }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "US DFC due-diligence complete Q1 2026; US EXIM + JOGMEC (Japan) engaged; Société Générale-led project-finance package; Standard Chartered strategic. Western-DFI/ECA-anchored (battery-supply-chain rationale).", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Lifezone Metals IR / SEC 6-K" }, "offtake": { "value": "100% offtake control retained by Lifezone (nickel/copper/cobalt intermediate)", "state": "Sourced" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 942, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Kabanga FS-TRS 18 Jul 2025 (pre-production; +$168m capitalised opex, $1.34bn sustaining incl. closure, $42m growth)" }, "ownership": { "value": "Lifezone 84% (via KNL/Tembo Nickel) / Govt of Tanzania 16% carried", "state": "Sourced" }, "funding_status": { "value": "In progress — DFC/EXIM/JOGMEC + SocGen PF package being finalised ahead of FID 2026", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical (nickel)", "development_impact": { "value": "91% Tanzanian-nationals operating-workforce target (currently 97% of Tembo Nickel staff Tanzanian); Government of Tanzania 16% free-carried interest; CSR: Mukubu Primary School build, Household Well-Being/Livelihood survey + Livelihood Restoration programme; SGR-rail & Julius Nyerere hydropower reduce capital intensity", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Lifezone/Crux Dec 2025–Jan 2026", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "FS complete → pre-FID", "fid": "targeted 2026", "first_prod": "~2030 (≈4yr build post-FID)", "ytc": "~4 yr", "risk": "MEDIUM — pre-FID, financing-dependent; multi-source ECA package not yet closed", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Tanzania 16% free-carried interest (2017 Mining Act framework)", "fiscal": "Tanzania: 6% gold/min royalty + 1% clearing fee; 30% CIT; 16% state carry — regime less price-responsive (NRGI)", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "Project financing LED BY Société Générale (announced; anchored by US DFC initial indication of interest) + $60m Taurus Mining Finance bridge loan closed Aug 2025 + $75m equity raised H2-2025; DFI/ECA package being finalised pre-FID. (FS-TRS-confirmed; corrects v2.55.1 over-softening that dropped SocGen.)", "nat": "MEDIUM — 2017 reforms baked in; stable jurisdiction now" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "Financing parties engaged: US DFC (E&S due diligence completed), US EXIM, JOGMEC (Japan); Société Générale-led project-finance package; Standard Chartered strategic [Sourced per disclosures]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "Yes — critical (nickel)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Primary filing located (committee-citable)", "docs_pinned": "2 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Primary filing located — Kabanga FS-TRS (S-K 1300; DRA Projects & S. Sylvester, 18 Jul 2025) on SEC EDGAR/IR; committee-citable", "citable": true }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$942m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$518m–US$612m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$1579m at 8% — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "kalana", "dfi_stage": "PFS-stage (Feb 2021); DFS pending — least-advanced of the slice", "sponsor": { "value": "Endeavour Mining", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "major", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "None / N/A", "state": "N/A", "basis": "N/A — Endeavour Mining (LSE/TSX: EDV) major; would be corporate-funded; no DFI in capital structure" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "DFS pending — capex not published" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — Endeavour Mining (LSE/TSX: EDV) major; would be corporate-funded; no DFI in capital structure", "state": "N/A", "src": "Endeavour Mining" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "DFS pending; funding plan not defined (Endeavour major, would be corporate-funded). Mali fiscal/security context is a material overlay." }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "DFS pending (PFS 2021); no quantified development-impact disclosure" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "PFS (2021) → DFS pending", "fid": "undated", "first_prod": "undefined (longest gestation)", "ytc": "long / stalled", "risk": "HIGH — DFS pending; Mali 2023 code (35% state equity, royalty→10%, SOPAMIM); 2025 sector disruption (gold output −19%, Barrick/Loulo)", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Mali state equity up to 35% (2023 Mining Code; SOPAMIM)", "fiscal": "Mali: 2023 code — royalty raised to max 10% (from 6.5%); state equity up to 35%; SOPAMIM manages stakes", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "Endeavour (would be corporate-funded); no structure defined (DFS pending)", "nat": "HIGH — 2023 resource-nationalism; $1.2bn arrears recovered; 2025 sector disruption" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Absent (no figure to defend)", "docs_pinned": "1 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design." }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "kokoseb", "dfi_stage": "Scoping Study (Sept 2025) complete / DFS due H2-2026 / pre-FID (FID targeted end-2026)", "sponsor": { "value": "Wia Gold", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "High", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "None to date — well-capitalised junior (A$45.8m cash, no debt end-2025; A$52.1m at 30 Sep 2025). Wia Gold 80% / Epangelo Mining (Namibia state) 20%. Debt/financing path to be defined at DFS (H2-2026)." }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 359, "state": "Sourced", "src": "FS/study capex" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "None to date — well-capitalised junior (A$45.8m cash, no debt end-2025; A$52.1m at 30 Sep 2025). Wia Gold 80% / Epangelo Mining (Namibia state) 20%. Debt/financing path to be defined at DFS (H2-2026).", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Wia Gold quarterlies" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot; no offtake agreement required", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Equity-funded to date (A$30m placement Aug 2025); construction financing to be arranged post-DFS; first gold late 2027/early 2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "Namibia employment/procurement/royalty benefits cited qualitatively; no quantified figures in reviewed disclosures (DFS due H2-2026)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "Scoping → DFS H2-2026", "fid": "targeted end-2026", "first_prod": "late 2027 / early 2028", "ytc": "~2 yr", "risk": "LOW-MEDIUM — well-capitalised; DFS+permitting on track; debt path TBD at DFS", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Namibia Epangelo (state) participation; stake % carried from platform record, flagged for primary back-check", "fiscal": "Namibia: royalty + high total tax burden (TTB ~0.79); 10yr mining loss-carryforward; new minerals bill replacing 2002 Act in prep", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "Equity-funded to date (A$30m placement Aug-2025; A$45.8m cash, no debt); construction debt TBD at DFS", "nat": "MEDIUM — minerals-bill reform + beneficiation push pending" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Secondary / non-NPV doc (filing unpinned)", "docs_pinned": "2 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Company scoping-study page — not a filing; scoping-stage figure", "citable": false }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "kone", "dfi_stage": "construction (on-budget, ahead of schedule) / first gold late Q4-2026", "sponsor": { "value": "Montage Gold", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "single-asset developer", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Moderate-High", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "N/A — no DFI. Fully funded via US$825m package (Oct 2024): Wheaton Precious Metals gold stream US$625m + Wheaton loan US$75m + Zijin gold stream US$75m + Zijin loan US$50m. Streaming + strategic (Zijin 9.9%); Montage is part of the Lundin g" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 712, "state": "Sourced", "src": "UFS Jan 2024 pre-production (corrects earlier $545m = 2022 DFS)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — no DFI. Fully funded via US$825m package (Oct 2024): Wheaton Precious Metals gold stream US$625m + Wheaton loan US$75m + Zijin gold stream US$75m + Zijin loan US$50m. Streaming + strategic (Zijin 9.9%); Montage is part of the Lundin group. Liquidity ~US$968m. Minimal equity dilution.", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Montage Gold PR (23 Oct 2024) / Northern Miner" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot (note: Wheaton holds a gold STREAM as financing, not an offtake agreement)", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "FULLY FUNDED (Oct 2024 US$825m streaming+loan package); construction on-budget & ~2 months ahead; first gold brought forward to late Q4-2026 via oxide circuit", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": ">90% of construction tasks self-performed with local-talent training programmes; owner-operator model with local hiring; 'new gold district' for northern Côte d'Ivoire", "state": "Sourced (qualitative)", "src": "Montage construction updates 2025", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "construction (on/ahead)", "fid": "taken", "first_prod": "late Q4-2026", "ytc": "<1 yr", "risk": "LOW — fully funded, on-budget/ahead", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Côte d'Ivoire state participation per 2014 Mining Code (~10%)", "fiscal": "CIV: sliding-scale gold royalty; 2014 code under revision (Li/Co/Cu/U focus)", "fiscal_state": "Derived (2014 code; revision in progress)", "stack": "Streaming-led, no DFI: Wheaton gold stream $625m + Wheaton loan $75m + Zijin stream $75m + Zijin loan $50m (≈$825m); Lundin group", "nat": "MEDIUM — code revision underway" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Côte d'Ivoire is an EBRD country of operation (since Jul 2025); EBRD has CIV mining projects in pipeline incl. equity in exploration (Devex/EBRD May 2026)", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Primary filing located (committee-citable)", "docs_pinned": "2 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Primary filing located — Montage Koné UFS NI 43-101 (Lycopodium, Jan 2024) on SEDAR/IR; committee-citable", "citable": true }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "kurmuk", "dfi_stage": "pre-commissioning (Q2-2026) / first gold mid-2026", "sponsor": { "value": "Allied Gold — Zijin Gold (China) acquisition pending; arrangement Jan 2026, outside date 29 Jul 2026", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "mid-major", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "None / N/A", "state": "N/A", "basis": "N/A — Allied Gold (TSX: AAUC) self-funded; Allied is itself under a Zijin C$5.5bn takeover. No DFI in capital structure." }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 717, "state": "Sourced", "src": "FS/study capex" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — Allied Gold (TSX: AAUC) self-funded; Allied is itself under a Zijin C$5.5bn takeover. No DFI in capital structure.", "state": "N/A", "src": "Allied Gold / Kristie Batten (Jun 2026)" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Self-funded (US$717m budget); pre-commissioning Q2-2026, first gold mid-2026; Allied under Zijin takeover", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": "~976-person on-site workforce capacity (798 main + 178 security camp); anchors Allied's ~600kozpa group profile; Ethiopia gold-sector flagship", "state": "Sourced (workforce proxy)", "src": "Allied Gold / mining-technology project profile", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "pre-commissioning", "fid": "taken", "first_prod": "mid-2026", "ytc": "~0 (imminent)", "risk": "MEDIUM — control change mid-build: Allied under Zijin C$5.5bn takeover", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Ethiopia state participation per mining proclamation", "fiscal": "Ethiopia: royalty + CIT per proclamation; project-specific", "fiscal_state": "Derived (regional norm)", "stack": "Allied Gold balance sheet ($717m budget); Allied under Zijin C$5.5bn takeover", "nat": "MEDIUM" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "Parent Allied Gold under a pending Zijin takeover (C$5.5bn; outside date extended to 29 Jul 2026; shareholder, court, ICA, ECOWAS and COMESA clearances obtained; remaining African host-country approvals in progress; not closed). Self-funded; no DFI in the capital structure [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Secondary / non-NPV doc (filing unpinned)", "docs_pinned": "1 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Secondary aggregator profile only — FS not pinned", "citable": false }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "ngualla-ree", "dfi_stage": "BFS complete / pre-FID", "sponsor": { "value": "Peak/Mamba (Shenghe-owned)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "High", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "IFC and Appian Capital historic investors; current funding via Shenghe Resources (Chinese strategic) + Mamba. No active Western-DFI package disclosed." }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "IFC and Appian Capital historic investors; current funding via Shenghe Resources (Chinese strategic) + Mamba. No active Western-DFI package disclosed.", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Peak Rare Earths ASX disclosures" }, "offtake": { "value": "Shenghe Resources offtake ~7,500 tpa REE concentrate (strategic Chinese offtaker/shareholder)", "state": "Sourced" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 320, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Peak BFS Oct 2022 (mine; FEED 2023 ~$287m)" }, "ownership": { "value": "Peak/Mamba (Shenghe-owned, takeover pending) / Govt of Tanzania 16% free-carried non-dilutable", "state": "Sourced" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Shenghe-anchored; BFS-stage, FID pending — NdPr price (~$110/kg current vs $231.88/kg BFS assumption) materially below study basis", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical (rare earths / NdPr)", "development_impact": { "value": "~600 direct + up to 3,000 indirect jobs (construction); ~220 direct + ~1,000 indirect (operations); Tanzania 16% free-carried interest + 3% gross-revenue royalty; in-country beneficiation (4.8% REO ore → 45% REO concentrate) + downstream-refinery study with GoT. CAVEAT: figures are Peak's 2022 impact statement; Shenghe (now 100% of Peak) has not published a workforce plan", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Peak 2022 impact statement / Ecofin Sept 2025", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "BFS complete → pre-FID", "fid": "pending", "first_prod": "undefined (FID-gated)", "ytc": "3-4+ yr", "risk": "MEDIUM — Shenghe control (100% of Peak); NdPr ~$110/kg below BFS deck ($231.88/kg); FID undated", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Tanzania 16% free-carried (STAMICO) + 3% gross-revenue royalty", "fiscal": "Tanzania: 16% carry + 3% royalty + dividends; in-country beneficiation required (2017 Act)", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "Shenghe (Chinese; 100% of Peak) strategic funding + offtake; IFC/Appian historic equity", "nat": "MEDIUM — controlling shareholder Shenghe Resources (100% of Peak); in-country beneficiation mandate (2017 Act)" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "Controlling shareholder: Shenghe Resources — 100% of Peak Rare Earths (completed Sep/Oct 2025); Peak ~84% of Ngualla; Tanzania 16% free-carried; offtake 100% Shenghe. No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed (IFC/Appian historic equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "Yes — critical (rare earths / NdPr)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Primary filing located (committee-citable)", "docs_pinned": "2 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Primary filing located — Ngualla BFS PDF (Oct 2022); committee-citable but NdPr deck is stale", "citable": true }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$320m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$176m–US$208m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$1350m at post-tax (BFS @ NdPr $231.88/kg, Oct 2022) — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "nyanzaga", "dfi_stage": "construction (~48% complete, Mar 2026) / first gold Q1-2027", "sponsor": { "value": "Perseus Mining", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "major", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "None / N/A", "state": "N/A", "basis": "N/A — Perseus Mining (ASX/TSX: PRU) self-funded via interest-free loans from Perseus' existing cash (US$801m at 31 Mar 2025). Perseus 80% / Government of Tanzania 20% non-contributing. No DFI in capital structure." }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 523, "state": "Sourced", "src": "FS/study capex" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — Perseus Mining (ASX/TSX: PRU) self-funded via interest-free loans from Perseus' existing cash (US$801m at 31 Mar 2025). Perseus 80% / Government of Tanzania 20% non-contributing. No DFI in capital structure.", "state": "N/A", "src": "Perseus Mining FID (28 Apr 2025)" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "FID Apr 2025; self-funded (Perseus cash); ~48% construction-complete Mar 2026; first gold Q1-2027", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": "First major gold-mine development in Tanzania in 17 years; lifts Perseus group output toward ~630koz FY29; Government of Tanzania 20% interest; positive national GDP/fiscal contribution cited (not separately quantified)", "state": "Sourced (qualitative)", "src": "Perseus / Mining Review 2025-26", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "construction (~48%)", "fid": "taken Apr 2025", "first_prod": "Q1-2027", "ytc": "~0.5 yr", "risk": "LOW — self-funded, on schedule", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "~20% Tanzanian — Perseus holds 80% of Sotta Mining (SMCL) per Apr 2025 FS; remaining ~20% held by Tanzanian interests (govt/STAMICO)", "fiscal": "Tanzania: 6% royalty + 1% clearing fee; 30% CIT; 20% state (non-contributing here)", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "Perseus interest-free loans from $801m cash; no DFI", "nat": "MEDIUM" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Primary filing located (committee-citable)", "docs_pinned": "2 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Primary filing located — Perseus Updated FS (28 Apr 2025) technical report; committee-citable", "citable": true }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "twin-hills", "dfi_stage": "construction (commenced Sept 2025) / first gold Q1-2027", "sponsor": { "value": "Shanjin International", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "major", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "None / N/A", "state": "N/A", "basis": "N/A — Shanjin International Gold (acquired Osino Resources) self-funded; no DFI in capital structure" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 365, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Twin Hills DFS NI 43-101 Jun 2023 (incl. $34m contingency + $18m pre-strip); corrects earlier $475m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "N/A — Shanjin International Gold (acquired Osino Resources) self-funded; no DFI in capital structure", "state": "N/A", "src": "Osino/Shanjin DFS (2023)" }, "offtake": { "value": "N/A — gold sold to refiner at spot", "state": "N/A" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Self-funded (Shanjin); construction commenced Sept 2025; first gold Q1-2027", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": "Mining-licence conditions mandate a 5% non-carried local minority interest + affirmative-action quotas (20% of management for disadvantaged Namibians); Namibia's third gold mine", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Osino ML/ECC disclosures 2022-23", "impact_provenance": "Sponsor-stated projection (promoter source; not independently verified — DFI additionality assessment required)" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "gate": "construction", "fid": "taken", "first_prod": "Q1-2027", "ytc": "~0.5 yr", "risk": "LOW — self-funded (Shanjin), in build", "risk_state": "Derived", "risk_basis": "Risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is a Derived editorial judgment from disclosed stage/ownership/jurisdiction events — no numeric rubric; the underlying events are Sourced, the banding is not" }, "deal_structure": { "state": "Namibia 5% non-carried local minority interest (ML condition) + 20%-management affirmative-action", "fiscal": "Namibia: royalty + high TTB; new minerals bill pending; local-equity/beneficiation conditions", "fiscal_state": "Sourced", "stack": "Shanjin (parent) balance sheet; no DFI", "nat": "MEDIUM" }, "dfi_mandate": { "african_multilateral": "African jurisdiction — within the published geographic mandates of the African multilaterals (AfDB / AFC / Afreximbank / TDB / EBID)", "western_dfi_eca": "No Western-DFI/ECA financing disclosed; funding as stated in this record (corporate / streaming / equity) [Sourced]", "ebrd": "Not an EBRD country of operation — EBRD's 2025 SSA entry covers Benin/Côte d'Ivoire/Nigeria (+ Ghana/Kenya/Senegal in process); this jurisdiction not yet an EBRD country of operation", "energy_transition_aligned": "No (gold — monetary/FX, not energy-transition input)" }, "committee_grade": { "npv_grade": "Primary filing located (committee-citable)", "docs_pinned": "1 primary document(s) located", "note": "Committee-grade = whether a credit officer can cite the figure or must independently re-derive it. Primary-doc-pinned survives committee; Derived is zeroed by design.", "npv_grade_detail": "Primary filing located — Twin Hills DFS NI 43-101 (Lycopodium, eff. 12 Jun 2023) filed on SEDAR; committee-citable", "citable": true }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "china_exposure": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "Acquired by Shanjin International Gold / Yintai (Chinese major).", "dfc_sensitive": false, "basis": "Per-asset ownership/offtake verified against company filings + trade press (2025-26)." } } }, { "id": "kasiya", "dfi_stage": "DFS complete (2026, conforms to IFC Performance Standards for bankability) / pre-FID", "sponsor": { "value": "Sovereign Metals (ASX:SVM, AIM:SVML); Rio Tinto 19.9% strategic", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior + major-backed (Rio Tinto)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Likely — junior developer, ~US$0.66bn+ initial capex; project finance not yet secured", "state": "Derived", "basis": "Capex US$665m (OPFS); DFS may differ; financed to date by equity, no project-finance package closed" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 665, "state": "Sourced", "src": "OPFS Jan 2025 initial capex (US$665m); DFS capex may differ" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "None committed yet; Rio Tinto strategic + Japan Nacala-corridor initiative; offtake/financing in discussion", "state": "Derived", "src": "Sovereign disclosures 2025-26" }, "offtake": { "value": "In discussion — Toho Titanium validated rutile quality; no binding offtake signed", "state": "Derived", "src": "Sovereign 2025 Annual Report" }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS-funded via A$40m (2025) raise; project financing not yet secured; offtake + permitting workstreams ongoing", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (rutile-Ti + flake graphite)", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "200+ locals trained in rehab; quantified jobs/state-take not published this cycle" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-FID build; first production not yet guided to a firm date", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Project finance + offtake-linked + possible strategic (Rio Tinto/Japan) — not yet structured", "state": "Derived" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Critical-minerals supply diversification (Ti/graphite away from China); IFC active in Malawi power", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Strong critical-minerals candidate, IFC-PS-conformant DFS; pre-FID, financing gap open", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$727m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$400m–US$473m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Absent", "value": "post-tax NPV not in the public disclosures reviewed — economics anchor pending" } } }, { "id": "etango", "dfi_stage": "DFS (Dec 2022) complete + fully permitted (ML 250, Dec 2023) + early works / pre-FID (FID guided 2025-26)", "sponsor": { "value": "Bannerman Energy (ASX:BMN) via BMRN 95% / One Economy Foundation 5%; CNNC (CNOL) strategic JV", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior + Chinese-SOE-backed (CNNC)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Partly filled commercially — CNNC (CNOL) to invest up to US$321.5m for 45% of the JV; build capex ~US$317-353m", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "CNOL US$321.5m strategic investment (Feb 2026); residual debt/JV to close" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 353, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Updated capital US$353m (2025 cost-confirmation; DFS US$317m)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI in structure; CNNC (Chinese state nuclear SOE) strategic JV partner", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Bannerman Feb 2026" }, "offtake": { "value": "Binding — CNOL purchases 60% of production; Bannerman markets 40%; plus select N.American utility offtakes (Sep 2025)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Bannerman / Extractor Sep 2025; Africa Outlook 2026" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Early works underway; CNNC JV US$321.5m (45%); FID guided 2025-26; first production targeted 2027-28", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (uranium / nuclear fuel)", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "40%+ Namibian local content cited; quantified jobs not published this cycle" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "First production targeted 2027-2028 post-FID", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Strategic JV (CNNC 45%) + utility offtakes + residual debt", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Energy-transition (nuclear fuel) + supply security; but CNNC ownership narrows Western-DFI/ECA appetite", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Construction-ready, fully permitted, binding offtake — but CNNC 45% is an integrity/geopolitical overlay for Western DFIs", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "critical_nonEBRD", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "china_exposure": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "CNNC Overseas 42.75% economic stake + 60% life-of-mine offtake; debt-free CNNC funding. Bannerman retains operating control (55% of JVCo, 3 of 5 board seats, chair + CEO).", "dfc_sensitive": true, "basis": "Per-asset ownership/offtake verified against company filings + trade press (2025-26)." } } }, { "id": "mahenge", "dfi_stage": "Enhanced DFS (2019, bankable) + FEED (2022) + fully permitted (SML) + early works / pre-FID (full funding pending)", "sponsor": { "value": "Black Rock Mining (ASX:BKT) 84% / Govt of Tanzania 16% free-carry; POSCO largest shareholder (~19.9%); subsidiary Faru Graphite", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior + strategic-backed (POSCO)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — and largely met: DBSA + IDC + CRDB facilities ~US$179-204m already committed; Module 1 capex ~US$182-231m", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "DBSA/IDC/CRDB Facilities Agreement Sep 2024, raised to US$204m May 2025" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 231, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Module 1 initial capex US$231m (eDFS/early-works)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "DBSA + IDC (DFIs) + CRDB Bank — US$179-204m debt facilities committed; DFI E&S/technical DD substantially complete", "state": "Sourced", "src": "TanzaniaInvest / The Citizen Sep 2024; Faru May 2025" }, "offtake": { "value": "Binding — POSCO 30ktpa Module-1 fines (LOM) + 100% Module-2 fines; ~95% of Module 1 contracted (incl. two Chinese counterparties + large-flake customers)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Black Rock / Faru 2024-25" }, "funding_status": { "value": "DBSA/IDC/CRDB debt + POSCO equity/offtake-prepayment; early works completing late Q2 2026; FID pending full funding", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (battery flake graphite)", "development_impact": { "value": "500+ direct/indirect jobs; 220kV line extends grid to Mahenge/Ulanga villages (rural electrification); local-content framework", "state": "Sourced", "src": "The Citizen Sep 2024" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "24-month build from FID to commissioning", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "DFI/commercial debt (DBSA/IDC/CRDB) + strategic equity (POSCO) + offtake prepayment", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Battery-supply-chain diversification + rural electrification + local content — DFIs (DBSA/IDC) already engaged", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Strong — DFI-already-financed, binding offtake, quantified development impact; the clearest near-term DFI asset in the batch", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing", "detail": "DBSA + IDC + CRDB Bank US$179–204m debt facility", "note": "DFI-validated proof point — main debt committed or at financial close; limited room for a NEW DFI cheque. Strongest evidence the asset cleared a real DFI screen, not an open origination opportunity." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$231m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "DBSA + IDC + CRDB Bank US$179–204m debt facility", "basis": "Actual committed/closing DFI/ECA facility (Sourced from financeability dfis_ecas) — supersedes the indicative capex-geared band now that debt is in place." }, "readiness": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing — DFI/ECA debt committed or at financial close; underwriting validated by the lenders, not indicative.", "basis": "Where a DFI/ECA facility is committed or closing, the asset is past origination; the indicative capex band does not apply." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$1400m at 10% — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "songwe-hill", "dfi_stage": "Updated NI 43-101 DFS (Mar 2026; base DFS Jul 2022) / pre-construction (engineering start Apr 2026)", "sponsor": { "value": "Mkango Resources (AIM/TSX-V:MKA) 100% via Lancaster Exploration; Govt of Malawi 10% free-carry; NASDAQ listing as Mkango Rare Earths (MKAR) pending", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (US-DFC + EU-CRMA backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — junior; U.S. DFC already funding FEED (US$4.6m, Sep 2025); project-finance package to follow", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US DFC Project Development Funding Agreement Sep 2025; EU CRMA Strategic Project" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 217, "state": "Derived", "src": "PFS-era initial capex ~US$217m; updated DFS (Mar 2026) capex not isolated this cycle" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "U.S. DFC (Project Development Funding Agreement, US$4.6m FEED, Sep 2025); EU Critical Raw Materials Act Strategic Project (Songwe + Pulawy)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mkango YE-2025; mining-technology" }, "offtake": { "value": "Vertically integrated — MREC feeds Mkango's planned Pulawy separation plant (Poland; Grupa Azoty collaboration); EU route-to-market", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mkango DFS Mar 2026" }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFC FEED funding secured; NASDAQ SPAC merger (Crown PropTech) pending SEC F-4; project finance to follow", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (NdPr magnet rare earths)", "development_impact": { "value": "Mining Development Agreement signed with GoM (Jul 2024); employment / high-value exports cited", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mkango / mining-technology" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Construction start Apr 2027; commissioning Oct 2028; full production Q2 2029 (per DFS schedule)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "DFC development funding + NASDAQ equity (MKAR) + project finance + EU strategic backing", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "US/EU critical-minerals supply security (NdPr magnets away from China); US DFC + EU CRMA strategic", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Very strong — US DFC already engaged, EU CRMA strategic, current NI 43-101 DFS, IFC-PS+GISTM ESHIA", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$326m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$179m–US$212m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$339m at 10% — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "tumas", "dfi_stage": "2025 DFS (updated Mar 2026) + Mining Licence (Sep 2023) + early works / FID DEFERRED (Apr 2025, uranium-price-contingent)", "sponsor": { "value": "Deep Yellow (ASX:DYL); Oponona Investments (local Namibian) right to acquire 5% post-FID", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — ~US$474m capex; Nedbank Mandated Lead Arranger for ~US$350m debt; FID price-contingent", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Deep Yellow 2025 DFS; Nedbank financing process" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 474, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Deep Yellow 2025 DFS initial capex US$474m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "Nedbank (SA commercial bank) Mandated Lead Arranger ~US$350m debt; Independent Technical Expert engaged in DD; no DFI named", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Extractor Jul 2025; mining-technology" }, "offtake": { "value": "None yet — securing long-term offtake contracts is a stated FID pre-condition", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mining-technology / WNN Apr 2025" }, "funding_status": { "value": "FID deferred Apr 2025 on uranium price; phased early works + detailed engineering (>65%) continue; plant construction paused", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (uranium / nuclear fuel)", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "Namibian supplier networks / local content cited; not quantified this cycle" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Price-contingent — FID gated on uranium price; production previously eyed ~2027", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Nedbank-arranged senior debt (~US$350m) + equity; FID gated on uranium price", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Energy-transition (nuclear fuel) + supply security; but market-gated, financing led by a commercial bank not a DFI", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Technically ready (DFS + ML + IE engaged) but FID paused on uranium price — financing-ready, market-gated", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "critical_nonEBRD", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "kangankunde", "dfi_stage": "Stage-1 Feasibility Study (Jul 2024) + FID (Q3 2025) + in construction (first production Q4 2026)", "sponsor": { "value": "Lindian Resources (ASX:LIN) via Rift Valley Resource Developments (RVR); Lindian 67% of RVR, moving to 100% by a final US$10m vendor payment at commissioning", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (Iluka-partnered)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Low and largely met — pre-production capex only ~US$40m; fully funded for Stage 1 via A$91.5m placement (Aug 2025) + Iluka US$20m loan", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "A$91.5m placement + Iluka construction loan; FID taken Aug 2025" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 40, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Lindian FS Jul 2024 pre-production capex US$40m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI — commercially funded; Iluka Resources strategic partner (US$20m loan + 15-yr offtake)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining-technology Aug 2025" }, "offtake": { "value": "Binding — Iluka Resources 15-year offtake (90,000t / ~6,000tpa monazite concentrate to Eneabba refinery, WA) WITH floor-price protection; plus Gerald Metals 45,000t/60-month contract", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Rare Earth Exchanges / mining-technology" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Fully funded Stage 1; in construction; first production targeted Q4 2026", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (NdPr monazite rare earths)", "development_impact": { "value": "Local jobs / Malawian professional & contractor pool; community engagement plan", "state": "Derived", "src": "Lindian" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "First production Q4 2026 (in construction)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Commercial equity placement + Iluka strategic loan + offtake (floor-priced)", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Ex-China NdPr magnet supply security; low-capex, fast-to-production", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Construction-stage, fully funded, floor-priced Iluka offtake — commercially financed (low DFI additionality), but a clean low-radionuclide REE producer", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "makuutu", "dfi_stage": "Stage-1 DFS (Mar 2023) + Mining Licence (LML 00334, Jan 2024) + demonstration plant running / pre-FID (financing-gated)", "sponsor": { "value": "Ionic Rare Earths (ASX:IXR) via Rwenzori Rare Metals (RRM); IXR ~60% at DFS, since increased (reported ~94% by 2026); ~6% local partners", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — ~US$120.8m Stage-1 capex; financing is the explicit gating factor for FID; no DFI/binding finance committed", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "DFS capex US$120.8m; FID not announced as of Apr 2026" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 121, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Makuutu Stage-1 DFS pre-production capex US$120.8m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI committed; Mineral Security Partnership (MSP) engagement; offtake/financing discussions via demo-plant MREC samples", "state": "Derived", "src": "rare-earth-mining.com Apr 2026" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding yet — demo-plant MREC samples supporting offtake discussions; no product committed to China", "state": "Sourced", "src": "rare-earth-mining.com" }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS + ML in hand; demo plant (Phase 1, Mar 2025) producing MREC samples; FID financing-gated, not yet announced", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (heavy REE — Dy/Tb/Sc)", "development_impact": { "value": "Stage-1 royalties ~US$199m + corporate tax ~US$438m to Uganda over LoM (DFS)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Makuutu DFS" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-FID; first production previously targeted Q4 2024, now financing-gated", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Project finance + offtake-linked + possible MSP/strategic — not yet structured", "state": "Derived" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Heavy-REE (Dy/Tb/Sc) supply security — the rare earths most constrained by China's 2025 export controls; MSP-aligned", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Strong strategic fit (scarce non-China HREE) + genuine financing gap = high DFI additionality; pre-FID, financing-gated", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$121m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$66m–US$79m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$278m at 8% — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "kobada", "dfi_stage": "DFS (Oct 2024, Lycopodium; upscaled to 6Mtpa under Mali's 2023 code) + FID + construction commenced (first gold Q3 2027)", "sponsor": { "value": "Toubani Resources (ASX:TRE) ~90% / State of Mali 10% equity (2023 mining code); Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA) ~35% major shareholder", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (EEA-backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Met commercially — A$395m package (Oct 2025): EEA US$160m gold stream + A$125m equity + options; ~US$216m capex; senior-debt process also run", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "A$395m funding package Oct 2025; FID taken; Endeavour Financial arranging senior debt" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 216, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Kobada DFS initial capex US$216m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI — EEA gold stream + equity; Endeavour Financial advising; African banks/credit funds in data room", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mining Weekly / Toubani" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold sold at spot; EEA gold STREAM over 11.1% of production at 20% of spot price (a financing structure, prior claim on that gold)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mining Weekly Oct 2025" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Fully funded (A$395m); FID taken; construction commenced; first gold targeted Q3 2027", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": "Would be a top-5 Mali gold mine; village resettlement (Kobada/Foroko); community initiatives in capex", "state": "Derived", "src": "Toubani DFS" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "First gold targeted Q3 2027 (~19-month build)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Gold stream (EEA) + equity + senior debt process", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Limited DFI angle — commercially/stream funded; Mali jurisdiction is the binding constraint, not capital", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Construction-stage, fully funded, low-capex oxide gold — but Mali (HIGH political risk) is the headline; commercially financed", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "banio", "dfi_stage": "PEA complete; DFS IN PROGRESS (initiated Jan 2026, ERCOSPLAN, target H2 2026) + ESIA in progress / early development (pre-DFS-complete)", "sponsor": { "value": "Millennial Potash Corp (TSXV:MLP, OTCQB:MLPNF)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (US-DFC-backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — and DFC-led: U.S. DFC funded the DFS (US$3M) and intends to LEAD project financing once the DFS completes (full funding targeted late-2026/early-2027)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US DFC US$3M DFS funding + stated intent to lead project finance" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "DFS in progress; construction capex not yet defined (PEA-level only)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "U.S. DFC — funding the DFS (US$3M) and intends to lead project financing", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Proactive Jan 2026" }, "offtake": { "value": "None yet — MOP (muriate of potash) + high-purity-salt marketing studies underway", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Millennial Jan 2026" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Fully funded for DFS/ESIA (DFC-supported); DFS + ESIA targeted end-2026; mining-licence application to follow; DFC to lead construction finance", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "agri-mineral (potash / food security)", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "Early development; impacts not quantified" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-DFS (H2 2026) + ML + FID; full funding targeted late-2026/early-2027", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "DFC-led project finance (intended) + equity", "state": "Derived" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Food-security / fertiliser supply + US DFC strategic interest (DFC already funding and intending to lead finance)", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Earlier-stage (DFS in progress, no reserves yet) BUT strongest DFI posture in the batch — DFC already funding and intending to lead project finance", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "agri", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "epanko", "dfi_stage": "Updated Bankable Feasibility Study (Feb 2026) + Independent Engineers' Report complete — financing-ready, advancing to construction", "sponsor": { "value": "EcoGraf Limited (ASX:EGR; FSE:FMK) via its TanzGraphite business unit (formerly Kibaran Resources)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (multi-DFI-backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes, DFI-led — US$181.2m construction + US$18.1m RAP; KfW IPEX-Bank mandated for a US$105m senior secured loan (IER completed); EIB technical assistance; EU infrastructure co-financing", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "KfW IPEX US$105m senior facility mandated; EIB TA; EU infrastructure" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 199, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Epanko BFS US$181.2m construction + US$18.1m RAP" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "KfW IPEX-Bank (US$105m senior secured, mandated) + European Investment Bank (technical assistance) + European Commission (infrastructure / transport corridor co-financing)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Globe and Mail / TanzaniaInvest Feb 2026" }, "offtake": { "value": "Binding + in-principle offtake covering ~40,000 tpa (incl. ThyssenKrupp Metallurgical Products, Germany); a further ~20,000 tpa expected to convert to binding once in production", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Goldinvest / EcoGraf BFS Feb 2026" }, "funding_status": { "value": "BFS + IER complete; debt financing advancing (KfW IPEX-led US$105m); positioned for construction", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (battery-anode graphite)", "development_impact": { "value": "~200 local jobs (95%+ Tanzanian nationals); 2025 RAP for affected Epanko hamlets", "state": "Sourced", "src": "EcoGraf BFS" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-financing-close; advancing to construction", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "DFI senior debt (KfW IPEX) + EIB TA + EU infrastructure + offtake + equity", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Ex-China battery-anode graphite for European supply chains; multiple European DFIs already engaged", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Strong DFI fit — BFS+IER done, KfW IPEX US$105m mandated, EIB+EU engaged, ThyssenKrupp offtake, GISTM/IFC-PS E&S; financing-ready", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing", "detail": "KfW IPEX-Bank US$105m senior secured (mandated) + European ECA cover", "note": "DFI-validated proof point — main debt committed or at financial close; limited room for a NEW DFI cheque. Strongest evidence the asset cleared a real DFI screen, not an open origination opportunity." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$181m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "KfW IPEX-Bank US$105m senior secured (mandated) + European ECA cover", "basis": "Actual committed/closing DFI/ECA facility (Sourced from financeability dfis_ecas) — supersedes the indicative capex-geared band now that debt is in place." }, "readiness": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing — DFI/ECA debt committed or at financial close; underwriting validated by the lenders, not indicative.", "basis": "Where a DFI/ECA facility is committed or closing, the asset is past origination; the indicative capex band does not apply." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Absent", "value": "post-tax NPV not in the public disclosures reviewed — economics anchor pending" } } }, { "id": "dugbe", "dfi_stage": "DFS (Jun 2022, DRA/SRK) BEING UPDATED (2025-26, MineScope gap analysis) to support a 2026 construction-decision financing — 2022 study is stale/being-refreshed", "sponsor": { "value": "Pasofino Gold (TSXV:VEIN) via ARX Resources / Hummingbird Resources (Liberia) (HRL) — 100% pre the Government of Liberia 10% free-carry", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — ~US$397-435m construction capex; financing not yet secured; FS being updated to support a 2026 construction decision", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "2022 FS capex US$435m (US$397m construction per Nioko); FID pending" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 435, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Dugbe 2022 FS start-up capital US$435m (US$397m construction per Nioko 2026)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI; Nioko Resources / Hummingbird cooperation funding the FS update and pre-construction (Nioko 50.8% of US$10m 2025 + US$15m 2026)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "The Assay / Mining Weekly" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold sold at spot; no offtake structure noted", "state": "Sourced", "src": "commodity market structure" }, "funding_status": { "value": "FS-update + pre-construction funding (Nioko/Hummingbird); construction finance NOT yet secured; FID pending", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "GoL 10% free-carry; broader impacts not quantified this cycle" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Targeting a 2026 construction decision; first production thereafter", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Pre-construction: Nioko/Hummingbird co-funding; construction finance to be arranged post-updated-FS", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Host-economy gold (Liberia); MDA framework in place — but a live GoL-MDA dispute and a pending Nioko takeover complicate the picture", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Material reserve (2.76Moz) but THREE flags: (1) live GoL-MDA dispute (Dec 2025); (2) Nioko takeover of Pasofino pending (ownership in flux); (3) 2022 FS stale, being updated. Not committee-ready until these clear", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "sanankoro", "dfi_stage": "Updated DFS (Sep 2025, New SENET/DRA) + FEED underway (H2 2026) — pre-construction, PERMITTING-GATED (Mali mining permit pending)", "sponsor": { "value": "Cora Gold (AIM:CORA) via Malian operating company; Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA) 29.9% largest shareholder; State of Mali 10% free-carry (up to 35% with Malian investors)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (EEA-backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Met commercially — US$124m capex; fully funded by EEA US$120m gold stream + ~£15.7m EEA-led equity, pending permit", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "EEA US$120m stream + equity = fully funded pending permitting" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 124, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Sanankoro 2025 DFS pre-production capex US$124m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI — EEA gold stream + equity; Cora may convert 50% (US$60m) of the stream to senior debt within 240 days of approvals", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mining Weekly / Sharecast" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold sold at spot; EEA gold STREAM over 30.44% of production (15.22% if half replaced by debt) at 20% of spot — a prior claim on that gold", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Mining-technology / Sharecast Apr 2026" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Fully funded to production (EEA stream + equity), pending the Mali mining permit; FEED underway", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "gold/precious", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "Land compensation underway; jobs not quantified this cycle" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "~21-month build after permit; FEED completing H2 2026", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "EEA gold stream (US$120m) + equity; optional 50% conversion to senior debt", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Limited DFI angle — commercially/stream-funded; Mali permitting is the binding constraint", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "DFS+FEED, fully funded (EEA stream), solar-hybrid — but Mali (HIGH risk) and a pending mining permit under the 2023-code moratorium are the headline; third Mali asset", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "chilalo", "dfi_stage": "Updated DFS + FEED complete + Mining Licence + Govt framework agreement — FID-ready, financing-gated (lender ITE + E&S diligence underway)", "sponsor": { "value": "Evolution Energy Minerals (ASX:EV1; FSE:P77), a subsidiary of Marvel Gold; ARCH Sustainable Resources Fund cornerstone investor", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (ARCH-cornerstoned)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — US$120m capex; debt process run by Auramet International; non-binding EOIs from European/African/Tanzanian banks, MULTILATERAL institutions, funds and strategics", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US$120m capex; Auramet-run debt process; multilateral + bank interest (non-binding)" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 120, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Chilalo DFS pre-production capex US$120m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No committed DFI yet — multilateral institutions among non-binding financier EOIs; ITE + Independent E&S Consultant appointed by potential financiers (site visit completed)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "TanzaniaInvest May 2023 / EV1" }, "offtake": { "value": "Binding coarse-flake offtake with Yichang Xincheng Graphite (YXGC, China) ~30,000 tpa over 3 yrs (~56% of early production); fine flake INTENTIONALLY uncontracted for planned US downstream CSPG", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Crux Investor / EV1", "basis": "Coarse offtake is a Chinese counterparty — cuts against ex-China framing; fine flake reserved for US downstream." }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS+FEED+ML in hand; FID-ready; financing-gated (debt process live; ARCH cornerstone to follow into financing)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (battery-anode + expandable graphite)", "development_impact": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "GoT framework/shareholders agreement; jobs not quantified this cycle" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-FID/financing-close; construction-ready per FEED", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Senior debt (Auramet-run) + ARCH equity + offtake; possible fine-flake offtake if it aids financing", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Ex-China battery-anode graphite (fine flake reserved for US CSPG); multilateral financier interest", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Highest-grade graphite, DFS+FEED+ML, FID-ready — but financing not yet closed and the binding offtake is Chinese (YXGC); multilateral interest is non-binding", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$120m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$66m–US$78m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$338m at 8% — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "mingomba", "dfi_stage": "DEVELOPMENT COMMENCED — 29 Apr 2026 groundbreaking on shaft construction; land acquired for processing/TSF/admin; permitting advancing; definitive engineering/cost study early 2027; first copper early-2030s (still pre-definitive-FS)", "sponsor": { "value": "KoBold Metals (US; Bezos/Gates-backed, AI exploration) 80% / ZCCM-IH (Zambia state mining holding, LON:ZCC) 20%; superseded the EMR Capital JV", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "private (US strategic) + state minority", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Large (~US$2.3-2.5bn) but sponsor is well-capitalized — KoBold self-funding for now and 'confident'; open to partnerships (equity/offtake/JV); no DFI engaged", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US$2.3-2.5bn capex; KoBold self-funded to date, partnership-open" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 2400, "state": "Derived", "basis": "Estimated US$2.3-2.5bn (midpoint); pre-DFS, not yet a firm capex" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "None engaged — KoBold self-funding; partnership discussions ongoing", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Miners Digest / The Assay" }, "offtake": { "value": "None yet — concentrate; Zambian smelters (Kansanshi etc.) / cross-border options; offtake strategy a future item", "state": "Sourced", "src": "African Mining Market Apr 2026" }, "funding_status": { "value": "Construction commenced (29 Apr 2026 groundbreaking, shaft-sinking) ahead of a definitive FS; definitive engineering/cost study early 2027; KoBold self-funding to date; first copper early-2030s", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "transition (copper)", "development_impact": { "value": "ZCCM-IH 20% state holding; ~10% of Zambia's 2031 3Mtpa national copper target", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Discovery Alert / African Mining Market" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "First copper targeted early-2030s (long-dated, deep underground)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Self-funded development; future partnership / project finance possible (none structured)", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Strategic ex-China copper at scale — but a well-capitalized US sponsor means limited DFI financing-gap additionality despite the size", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "World-class scale (Kakula-like grade) BUT pre-definitive-FS (construction commenced 29 Apr 2026, ahead of the early-2027 definitive study; KoBold's first-ever mine build), deep/water-ingress + drought-power risk, US-backed self-funded — not a near-term DFI mandate; one to watch", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "phalaborwa", "dfi_stage": "PEA complete; DFS IN PROGRESS (targeted 2026, delayed from 2025) + pilot plant; permitting/financing in parallel; construction 2027, first production 2028 (pre-DFS-complete)", "sponsor": { "value": "Rainbow Rare Earths (LSE:RBW), UK-based; brownfield retreatment of phosphogypsum stacks at the Phalaborwa Mining Complex, Limpopo", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (US-DFC/TechMet-backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes, US-backed — ~US$326m project; U.S. DFC proposed US$50m investment via TechMet (announced at COP28); US Govt identifies it as a REE supply-chain-independence contributor", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US DFC US$50m via TechMet; ~US$326m project capex (pre-DFS)" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 326, "state": "Derived", "basis": "~US$326m project (Ecofin); firm capex pending DFS completion" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "U.S. DFC (proposed US$50m via TechMet); Ecora Royalties (royalty + equity)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Rainbow / rare-earth-mining.com" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding yet (pre-DFS); NdPr oxide + SEG+ mixed REE (incl Dy, Tb, and newly-added yttrium)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Rainbow / Mining Weekly" }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS in progress (2026); pilot plant validating flowsheet; financing/permitting in parallel; small near-term equity needs flagged", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (NdPr + heavy REE Dy/Tb/Y from phosphogypsum)", "development_impact": { "value": "Brownfield phosphogypsum retreatment — remediation co-benefit; Limpopo; SA mining infrastructure + ports (Richards Bay/Cape Town)", "state": "Derived", "src": "rare-earth-mining.com" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Construction 2027; first production 2028 (post-DFS)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "US DFC (via TechMet) + equity + royalty (Ecora); project finance post-DFS", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "US REE supply-chain independence (NdPr + heavy REE incl yttrium, China-export-controlled); US DFC already proposing investment", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Strong US/DFI posture (DFC via TechMet) + full-spectrum REE incl HREE + remediation co-benefit; but pre-DFS (DFS delayed to 2026), resource-only", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "kola", "dfi_stage": "DFS (2019) + Optimisation (2022) + Optimised DFS (Feb 2025, post-EPC) + fixed-price EPC signed (PowerChina, Nov 2024) + early works — 'transition to construction', financing-gated", "sponsor": { "value": "Kore Potash (LON/ASX/JSE/A2X:KP2), London-based; 97% of Kola + DX Potash, Sintoukola Basin, Republic of Congo", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (cash-constrained)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Very large — fixed-price EPC US$1.929bn (total project capital ~US$2.07bn); financing NOT closed; sponsor cash-thin (~US$8.3m, Mar 2026); reliant on external financing + equity raises", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "EPC US$1.929bn fixed-price (PowerChina); financial close pending; sponsor cash ~US$8.3m" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 2070, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Kola Optimised DFS total project capital ~US$2.07bn (EPC US$1.929bn + owner's cost)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No committed DFI/financier yet — a would-be financier proposal expected; OWI-RAMS GmbH funding agreement signed; PowerChina is the EPC contractor (Chinese)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Alliance News / LSE Jan-2025 / Kore" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding cited — Muriate of Potash (MoP), 2.2 Mtpa; coastal (35km, jetty); global fertiliser market", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Kore Potash / bitget overview" }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS+EPC+early works (marine drilling Q1 2026); construction targeted early 2026 PENDING FINANCIAL CLOSE; not yet funded", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "agri-mineral (potash / food security)", "development_impact": { "value": "RoC mining convention (fiscal terms); EPC includes US$708.9m transport/utility infrastructure (self-reliant); local market-gardener sourcing MoU", "state": "Sourced", "src": "World Fertilizer / Kore" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "43-month EPC construction after financial close (targeted early 2026)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Fixed-price EPC (PowerChina) + external project finance (not closed) + equity raises", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Food-security / fertiliser supply; very large financing gap; low-cost producer potential", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Technically advanced (DFS+EPC+early works) and HIGH additionality (US$1.9bn gap, food security) — but financing NOT closed, sponsor cash-thin, and the EPC is Chinese (PowerChina); financial close is the make-or-break", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "agri", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "waterberg", "dfi_stage": "DFS (2019) + DFS Update (Aug/Sep 2024, SEDAR+) + Mining Right granted (2021) — pre-construction, financing-gated (equity/ATM; Implats diluting)", "sponsor": { "value": "Platinum Group Metals Ltd (TSX:PTM, NYSE American:PLG) 37.19% (operator) / Implats 14.86% / HJ Platinum 21.95% (JOGMEC+Hanwa) / Mnombo Wethu (BEE) 26%", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior-operated JV (majors + BEE)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — large bulk-mine capex; financing-gated. Funding to date via equity/ATM; Implats has not funded its share since early 2024 (slight dilution); MISA (Saudi) MoU for potential support of smelter/BMR + project", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Equity/ATM pre-construction funding; no project-finance close; MISA MoU" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "2024 DFS capex not isolated this cycle; large bulk underground mine" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI committed — equity/ATM; MISA (Saudi Ministry of Investment) MoU for potential financial support; commercial mine-finance alternatives being assessed", "state": "Sourced", "src": "PTM 6-K FY2025" }, "offtake": { "value": "Implats holds a first-right-of-refusal for concentrate/smelter offtake; Hanwa rights to market refined metal — ROFR/in-discussion, not a committed binding offtake", "state": "Sourced", "src": "PTM / newsfilecorp Sep 2024", "basis": "ROFR is not committed volume; concentrate offtake discussions ongoing with SA smelters." }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS-updated + Mining Right; pre-construction; financing-gated (equity/ATM; project finance + offtake being negotiated)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "PGM (palladium-rich 4E) + by-product Cu/Ni", "development_impact": { "value": "~1,100 skilled jobs; BEE partner (Mnombo 26%); training/local business investment", "state": "Sourced", "src": "PTM" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-financing-close (pre-construction); 54-yr LOM once built", "state": "Derived" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Equity/ATM to date; project finance + concentrate offtake (Implats ROFR) to be arranged", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "PGMs are transition-MIXED (hydrogen/fuel-cell + electrolyser upside vs ICE autocatalyst exposure); low-cost shallow mechanised mine; SA buyer-relevant", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "World-class scale (23.4Moz 4E, 54-yr LOM) + Mining Right, but financing-gated, Implats diluting, offtake only ROFR; PGM demand is transition-mixed", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "longonjo", "dfi_stage": "IN CONSTRUCTION (~22% complete, per company disclosures) — first MREC commissioning targeted 2027; 20-yr LOM; US-aligned (US DFC project-development support; US EXIM ~$160M debt at LOI stage Oct-2025; VAC/eVAC US magnet offtake); $100M strategic equity Dec-2025", "sponsor": { "value": "Pensana Plc (LSE:PRE), London-based; FSDEA (Angola Sovereign Wealth Fund) ~29.2%; Cascade Natural Resources US$165m strategic investor; Nasdaq listing considered 2026", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (multi-DFI/ECA-financed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Largely met — ~US$250m project, FINANCED at ~60% debt / 40% equity: US EXIM (~US$160m debt + political-risk insurance, in finalisation), African Finance Corporation, US DFC project-development funding, FSDEA (sovereign), ABSA Bank, Cascade US$165m", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US$100m equity (Dec 2025) + EXIM/AFC/DFC/FSDEA/ABSA debt-equity package; ~22% built" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 250, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Pensana Longonjo ~US$250m construction capital" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "US EXIM (~US$160m debt + PRI, finalising); African Finance Corporation; US DFC (project-development funding); FSDEA (Angola sovereign)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ecofin / DFC / Crux Investor" }, "offtake": { "value": "Contracted — Vacuumschmelze (VAC, Germany) 5-year MREC offtake to its eVAC Magnetics plant in South Carolina (bypassing China); plus ReElement Technologies (US) up to 20,000 tpa; Toyota Tsusho MOU (non-binding)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "metalnomist / DFC / Magnetics Mag", "basis": "VAC contracted; ReElement + Toyota Tsusho are additional (some MOU-stage)." }, "funding_status": { "value": "Financed and IN CONSTRUCTION (~22% complete; power/water/telecoms/security installed 2025); first MREC late-2026/2027", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (NdPr magnet REE; HREE co-products targeted)", "development_impact": { "value": "Lobito-Corridor rail access (273km to Lobito Atlantic port); central Angola (Huambo); local infrastructure build", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Pensana / DFC" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "First MREC commissioning late-2026/2027 (in construction)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "~60% debt (EXIM/AFC/ABSA) / 40% equity (FSDEA, Cascade); offtake-anchored (VAC/ReElement)", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "US/allied mine-to-magnet supply chain (ex-China NdPr); multiple ECAs/DFIs already committed — among the strongest DFI-financeability cases in the screen", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Flagship DFI case — in construction, multi-ECA/DFI-financed (EXIM/AFC/DFC/FSDEA), VAC offtake, IFC-PS+GISTM, top-3 undeveloped NdPr; residual: HREE recovery + final EXIM close", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing", "detail": "US EXIM ~US$160m debt + PRI (finalising); in construction (~22%)", "note": "DFI-validated proof point — main debt committed or at financial close; limited room for a NEW DFI cheque. Strongest evidence the asset cleared a real DFI screen, not an open origination opportunity." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Absent", "value": "capex not in public disclosures reviewed" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US EXIM ~US$160m debt + PRI (finalising); in construction (~22%)", "basis": "Actual committed/closing DFI/ECA facility (Sourced from financeability dfis_ecas) — supersedes the indicative capex-geared band now that debt is in place." }, "readiness": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "FINANCED / closing — DFI/ECA debt committed or at financial close; underwriting validated by the lenders, not indicative.", "basis": "Where a DFI/ECA facility is committed or closing, the asset is past origination; the indicative capex band does not apply." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Absent", "value": "post-tax NPV not in the public disclosures reviewed — economics anchor pending" } } }, { "id": "khill", "dfi_stage": "DFS (28 May 2026, supports Mineral Reserve declaration) — pre-construction, financing-gated (US EXIM LOI non-binding; ~US$310m gap)", "sponsor": { "value": "Giyani Metals Corp (TSXV:EMM), 100%-owned K.Hill, Kanye Basin, Botswana", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (DFI/strategic-backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — initial capex ~US$535m (incl contingency; total LOP ~US$679m). US EXIM letter of intent US$225m (2025, NON-BINDING, not converted as of the May-2026 DFS); remaining funding gap ~US$310m; IDC of South Africa (convertible loan, combined facilities up to ~ZAR329.9m) + ARCH Sustainable Resources Fund (~US$26m earlier)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$535m initial; EXIM LOI US$225m non-binding; ~US$310m gap; IDC+ARCH committed" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 535, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Giyani K.Hill DFS initial capex ~US$535m (incl contingency); total LOP ~US$679m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "US EXIM (US$225m letter of intent, non-binding); IDC of South Africa (convertible loan, DFI); ARCH Sustainable Resources Fund", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ecofin / Giyani / Botswana Gazette / Discovery Alert" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding — battery-grade HPMSM + HPMO; passed Phase-2 testing with C4V; per-customer battery qualification still required; offtake discussions to follow", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Giyani DFS / Proactive / nai500" }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS complete (May 2026); pre-construction; financing-gated (EXIM LOI non-binding, ~US$310m gap; construction timeline not yet announced)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (battery-grade manganese: HPMSM/HPMO for NCM & LMFP EV cathodes)", "development_impact": { "value": "Ex-China battery-grade Mn (China = ~95% of Mn processing); Kanye Basin (~40km from Gaborone); community water-infrastructure relocation", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Giyani / Discovery Alert" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-financing-close (construction timeline not yet announced)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "IDC convertible loan + ARCH; EXIM LOI to be converted; ~US$310m gap to fill (debt + strategic)", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Ex-China battery-grade manganese supply security (EXIM LOI + IDC DFI engagement); EV-cathode demand projected into deficit ~2029", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Strong economics + demonstrated battery product (C4V Phase-2) + IDC/EXIM interest — but financing-gated (EXIM LOI non-binding, ~US$310m gap) and Measured resource still being built for debt cover", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$535m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$294m–US$348m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$482m at 8% (real) — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "minim-martap", "dfi_stage": "DFS (1 Sep 2025) + Mining License (late 2024) + IN CONSTRUCTION (surface miner mobilised Apr 2026, trial mining) — first shipment targeted Q3 2026; Stage-1 fully funded", "sponsor": { "value": "Canyon Resources (ASX:CAY) via Camalco Cameroon S.A.; major shareholder Eagle Eye Asset Holdings (EEA); Afriland First Bank group strategic investor", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (commercially financed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Modest + FUNDED — initial capex ~US$97m; Stage-1 fully financed to first shipment (commercial): ~US$140m AFG Bank Cameroon facility (~US$95m undrawn), A$215m Sept-2025 package (EEA + Afriland), ~A$40m cash", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$97m; Stage-1 funded via AFG/Afriland/EEA; rail upgrades (PQ2) part-funded by World Bank + EIB" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 97, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Minim Martap DFS initial capex ~US$97m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "Commercial mine finance (AFG Bank Cameroon, Afriland, EEA); World Bank + EIB part-fund the Camrail PQ2 rail upgrade (enabling infrastructure, not direct mine finance)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Canyon / Crux Investor / Business in Cameroon" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding BY DESIGN — spot-market shipments first to demonstrate quality, then negotiate long-term offtake from strength; debt provider (AFG) did not require offtake", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Crux Investor / Canyon", "basis": "Deliberate spot-first commercial strategy; 51% Al2O3 / <2% silica premium grade." }, "funding_status": { "value": "In construction, Stage-1 FULLY FUNDED to first shipment (Q3 2026); ramp 1.2Mtpa -> 10Mtpa by ~2031/32", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "industrial metal (bauxite -> alumina -> aluminium; aluminium has lightweighting/transition uses)", "development_impact": { "value": "Cameroon's first major mine; 800km existing rail to Douala port; Camrail equity 9.1%->26.9% for logistics control; downstream alumina-refinery FS (Q3 2026); strong government support", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Canyon / Business in Cameroon" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "First bauxite shipment targeted Q3 2026 (in construction)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Commercial debt (AFG) + equity (EEA/Afriland placement) + Camrail logistics equity; spot-first revenue then term offtake", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Catalytic first-mine + rail-corridor development (WB/EIB rail upgrades); in-country value-add (alumina refinery FS) — development impact high though mine is commercially funded", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Near-production, Stage-1-funded, tier-one grade (NPV ~US$835m/IRR 29%) with own logistics — among the most execution-ready in the screen; residuals: spot-first (no binding offtake), China loco/equipment delivery on critical path", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "steelpoortdrift", "dfi_stage": "DFS (Oct 2022) + FULLY PERMITTED (mining right + integrated environmental authorisation + water-use licence) + FEED — pre-FID, financing-gated; near-term DSO route", "sponsor": { "value": "Vanadium Resources Ltd (VR8) (ASX:VR8, DAX:TR3), 86.49% of Steelpoortdrift; Bushveld Complex, Limpopo, South Africa", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (pre-FID)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — pre-production capex ~US$211m (Phase 1); seeking strategic equity + construction debt for FID; Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) appointed exclusive financial adviser; exploring brownfield-site acquisition to cut capex", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Phase-1 capex ~US$211m; pre-FID; RMB advising; no DFI committed" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 211, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Steelpoortdrift DFS pre-production capex ~US$211m (Phase 1)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI committed; RMB (Rand Merchant Bank) exclusive financial adviser/capital-sourcing agent; strategic-equity + debt processes underway", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Discovery Alert / VR8" }, "offtake": { "value": "Mixed — BINDING DSO offtake with China Precious Asia (CPAL, 100k tpm direct-shipping ore) for near-term cashflow; NON-BINDING US Vanadium (USV, TechMet-owned, Arkansas) term sheet for 100% of V-Iron-Plant slag (binding pending V-Iron FS); CEIG partly-binding MoU", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining.com.au / Discovery Alert", "basis": "CPAL DSO binding (Chinese); USV US slag term sheet non-binding; product split (98%/99.5%) offtake-driven." }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS-complete + fully permitted; pre-FID (financing-gated); near-term DSO cashflow strategy; SRL/V-Iron plant funding to follow", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (vanadium: V2O5 for steel + 99.5% for vanadium flow batteries / grid-scale storage)", "development_impact": { "value": "Bushveld (Limpopo); community leasing/support; bottom-quartile opex/capex; ex-China/Russia vanadium supply (US defence/aerospace pathway via USV/TechMet)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Discovery Alert / VR8" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Near-term DSO first; SRL/V-Iron plant production post-FID (H2 2026/H1 2027 per company guidance, financing-dependent)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Phased: DSO cashflow (CPAL) -> strategic equity + debt for concentrator -> SRL/V-Iron plant; RMB advising", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Ex-China/Russia vanadium supply security (steel + VFB grid storage); US pathway via USV/TechMet; fully permitted tier-one resource", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Fully permitted, tier-one resource (4.74Mt V2O5), strong DFS economics (NPV ~US$1.05bn/IRR 42%) + VFB transition angle — but pre-FID/financing-gated, US offtake non-binding, near-term DSO via a Chinese counterparty (CPAL); 2022 DFS with a newer V-Iron co-production overlay still in study", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$211m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$116m–US$137m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$1210m at 7.5% — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "dasa", "dfi_stage": "FULLY PERMITTED + UNDER CONSTRUCTION (underground dev since Nov 2022; ~US$250m invested; ~700 on-site) — commissioning slipped to H2 2027 (first shipments possibly 2028); financing-gated for completion", "sponsor": { "value": "Global Atomic Corp (TSX:GLO, OTCQX:GLATF) via SOMIDA (Societe Miniere de Dasa S.A.); Republic of Niger government holds 20% of SOMIDA", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (state-participated; under construction)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — total project cost US$424.6m (2024 DFS); ~US$250m already invested (meets US DFC 40% capital-contribution requirement); seeking a US development-bank loan for ~60% (debt/equity 60/40); US$100m+ still required", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Project cost US$424.6m; ~US$250m invested; US DFC ~60% loan at Investment-Committee stage (Dec 2025)" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 425, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Dasa 2024 DFS total project cost US$424.6m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "US development bank (US DFC) — funding reviewed at Credit Committee, forwarded to Investment Committee (Dec 2025); uranium declared a US critical mineral; project 'blessed' by White House/State Dept", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Global Atomic Dec-2025 / Crux Investor", "basis": "DFC loan NOT yet closed; ~2-month next-steps guidance as of Dec 2025" }, "offtake": { "value": "Strong — ~90% of offtake contracted to US nuclear utilities (multiple definitive agreements + LOIs; e.g. 2.1Mlb and 3.5Mlb multi-year windows); ~1.3Mlb/yr contracted vs ~3-4Mlb/yr output", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Crux Investor / mining.com / Global Atomic", "basis": "Multiple definitive US-utility agreements; US energy-security aligned." }, "funding_status": { "value": "Under construction (~US$250m invested) but financing-gated for completion; commissioning H2 2027 (delayed from 2026); shipments possibly 2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (U3O8 — nuclear fuel; clean-energy baseload; COP28 nuclear-tripling)", "development_impact": { "value": "SOMIDA (Niger govt 20%); 97-98% Nigerien workforce; improved Niger mineral code (royalty 12%->7%); 'Nigerien project for Nigeriens'", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Crux Investor / Global Atomic" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Commissioning H2 2027 (delayed); first uranium shipments possibly 2028 (financing + logistics dependent)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "60% debt (US DFC, pending) / 40% equity (~US$250m invested via repeated raises); Niger govt 20% of SOMIDA", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "US uranium supply security (US utilities burn ~50Mlb/yr vs ~4-5Mlb/yr domestic) + nuclear clean-energy; US DFC capital requirement already met", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Africa's highest-grade uranium, under construction, ~90% US-utility offtake, US DFC engaged — but a JUNTA jurisdiction that revoked PEER licences (Orano Imouraren, GoviEx Madaouela), nationalised Somair, expelled US troops; financing slipped, state holds 20%. Strong asset, high-risk jurisdiction", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "baniaka", "dfi_stage": "PFS (Nov 2022) + PFS Addendum (capex savings) + FULLY PERMITTED (20-yr mining permit + Certificate of Environmental Conformance + Mining Convention) + early civil works — PRE-DFS / pre-FID, financing-gated", "sponsor": { "value": "Genmin Limited (ASX:GEN), 100% of Baniaka; SE Gabon near Franceville (Haut-Ogooue); ex-Fortescue chair Greg Lilleyman", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (cash-thin, pre-FID)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — Stage-1 capex ~US$200m (5Mtpa); funding gap ~US$197.9m; reliant on director/non-exec loans for opex; A$25.7m raised late-2025", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "~US$200m Stage-1 capex; ~US$197.9m gap; director-loan-dependent opex" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 200, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Genmin Baniaka Stage-1 capex ~US$200m (PFS)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI committed — China-led interest: SHICO (Sino-Hunan) LOI to fund ~60%; Sinohydro/PowerChina (Chinese SOE) EPC + financing MoU; plus Middle Eastern consortium, Shanghai-listed co, commodity-trader prepayment (~US$50m), mining fund (~US$10m) — all NON-BINDING; Oval Advisory engaged to broaden beyond China", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ecofin / ainvest / nextinvestors", "basis": "All financing proposals non-binding; SHICO LOI ~60%; China-concentrated." }, "offtake": { "value": "4x NON-BINDING offtake MoUs with major Chinese steelmakers (extended); SHICO LOI includes offtake; commodity-trader prepayment draft (~US$50m) — no binding offtake", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Sharecafe / Ecofin / nextinvestors", "basis": "Chinese-steelmaker MoUs non-binding; China-concentrated demand side." }, "funding_status": { "value": "Fully permitted + early civil works; PRE-DFS / pre-FID (FID targeted mid-2026); financing-gated; first production late-2026/2027 'subject to funding'", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "industrial metal (iron ore; 'Baniaka Green' hydro-powered, high-grade for lower-emission steel)", "development_impact": { "value": "Gabon's first commercial iron ore mine (diversify beyond manganese); 15-yr rail+port deal (5Mtpa, Transgabonais/Franceville); 20-yr Grand Poubara hydropower; govt assured public-infrastructure access", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ecofin / MarketScreener" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "FID targeted mid-2026; first production late-2026/2027, financing-dependent (commissioning date no longer specified)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Targeting ~60% debt (SHICO/Chinese) / 40% equity; Sinohydro EPC; rail/port + hydro already contracted", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Catalytic first-iron-ore mine + 'green' hydro-powered, high-grade product; but financing is China-led, not DFI/Western — a potential DFI/Western-capital entry point", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Fully permitted with rail/port + hydro secured and a large resource (758.7Mt @36.7% Fe), but only PFS-level (no DFS, FID not taken), cash-thin (director loans), offtake non-binding and financing China-concentrated; land dispute + pending permits + a subsidiary legal proceeding", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "china_exposure": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "100% Genmin-owned; Chinese offtake MoUs (non-binding) + Sinohydro financing/EPC letter-of-intent (no equity taken).", "dfc_sensitive": false, "basis": "Per-asset ownership/offtake verified against company filings + trade press (2025-26)." } } }, { "id": "kanyika", "dfi_stage": "BFS (Apr 2026) + FULLY PERMITTED (Large-Scale Mining Licence + Mining Development Agreement) + EARLY WORKS begun (Jan 2026) — pre-FID (FID 2026); first oxide Q1 2028", "sponsor": { "value": "Globe Metals & Mining (ASX:GBE), 100% (retains full ownership + offtake control); Kanyika, central/northern Malawi (Mozambique Orogenic Belt)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior (capital-disciplined, pre-FID)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — BFS initial capex ~US$139m (A$197m); phased to cut upfront capital; A$8.67m raised 2025; multiple funding pathways being established; FID targeted 2026", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$139m; phased; financing-gated; FID 2026" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 139, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Kanyika BFS initial capex ~US$139m (A$197m)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI committed — early works under a BINDING pre-development collaboration agreement with Sinomine (Chinese, Sinomine Resource Group; cost-reimbursable + US$20k/mo); Export Development Zone status sought from the Malawi Government", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining-technology / mining.com.au", "basis": "Sinomine is the early-works contractor (China); no DFI; Globe retains ownership/offtake." }, "offtake": { "value": "NON-BINDING MoU with Myst Trading (Phase-1 offtake, Mar 2025, renewed annually); prefers long-term strategic partners; target markets Japan/Europe/Americas — no binding offtake yet", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining.com.au / Globe", "basis": "Myst Trading MoU non-binding; offtake conversion ongoing." }, "funding_status": { "value": "BFS-complete + fully permitted + early works begun; pre-FID (FID 2026); financing-gated; first oxide Q1 2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "strategic/industrial (niobium pentoxide + tantalum by-product; ~90% Nb used in high-strength steel; aerospace/defence)", "development_impact": { "value": "Africa's FIRST niobium mine; non-Brazil niobium supply (Brazil/CBMM dominates); Malawi Vision 2063 alignment; downstream refining (Export Development Zone sought)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Globe / Discovery Alert" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "First saleable niobium oxide Q1 2028 (early works underway; FID 2026)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Capital-disciplined phased build; Sinomine early-works (cost-reimbursable); strategic financing + offtake conversion in progress; Globe retains 100%/offtake control", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Strategic critical mineral (niobium = US/UK strategic; aerospace/defence); first African + non-Brazil supply diversification; lowest-cost-quartile — strong DFI/strategic narrative, financing not yet secured", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "BFS-complete (48% IRR, ~US$139m capex, lowest-cost quartile) + fully permitted + early works = Africa's first niobium and a genuine non-Brazil supply story — but pre-FID/financing-gated (no DFI), offtake non-binding, Chinese early-works contractor (Sinomine), cash-thin", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "toliara", "dfi_stage": "Updated FS (8 Jan 2026, S-K 1300 + NI 43-101; supersedes 2021 DFS + 2024 PFS); mining permit held (Ti/Zr; monazite to be ADDED) — PRE-FID, gated on a government investment agreement", "sponsor": { "value": "Energy Fuels Inc (NYSE:UUUU, TSX:EFR), 100% via Base Toliara SARL (acquired Base Resources 2024); US critical-minerals producer (uranium, REE, HMS); White Mesa Mill, Utah", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior subsidiary of a well-capitalized US parent", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Large (~EUR854m / ~US$900m+ project) but the PARENT is well-capitalized: Energy Fuels raised US$700m convertible notes (Oct 2025, 7x oversubscribed), ~US$900m+ liquidity — the gate is REGULATORY (govt agreement), not capital", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "~US$900m project; parent ~US$900m+ liquidity; gate is the Madagascar investment agreement" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 900, "state": "Derived", "src": "~EUR854m project (allAfrica); parent-funded" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI committed; parent balance-sheet funded; US DoD / government offtake or incentives flagged as potential (US REE supply-chain priority)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Crux Investor / Energy Fuels" }, "offtake": { "value": "Vertically integrated — monazite (REE) feeds Energy Fuels' own White Mesa Mill (Utah; only US monazite processor) for NdPr/Dy/Tb; could supply up to ~30% US light-REE + ~85% US heavy-REE demand; ilmenite/zircon into liquid mineral-sands markets", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Energy Fuels / mining.com", "basis": "Captive REE vertical integration + liquid Ti/Zr markets; TZMI/Adamas price decks." }, "funding_status": { "value": "FS-complete; PRE-FID — FID requires a formalised govt investment agreement + adding monazite to the permit (Parliament + Constitutional High Court approval), being renegotiated after the Oct-2025 coup", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition + industrial (monazite REE [NdPr/Dy/Tb magnets] + ilmenite [Ti] + zircon [Zr] + rutile)", "development_impact": { "value": "~38-yr mine life; SW Madagascar (Ranobe, ~45km N of Toliara); ~US$80m social-projects commitment (Dec-2024 protocol); 5% royalty; renamed 'Vara Mada' to reflect local benefit", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ecofin / allAfrica" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-FID (FID gated on the government investment agreement); heavy-REE (Dy/Tb) at the US mill could start Q4 2026 independently", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Parent-funded (Energy Fuels balance sheet); govt investment agreement + 5% royalty + monazite permit addition pending", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "US/allied REE supply security (up to ~85% US heavy-REE demand via White Mesa); world-class HMS — DoD/government offtake or incentive potential", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "World-class FS (NPV ~US$1.8bn, 38-yr, IRR ~25%) + well-capitalized US parent + US-mill vertical integration (REE supply security) — but PRE-FID gated on a govt investment agreement being RENEGOTIATED AFTER THE OCT-2025 MADAGASCAR COUP; monazite not yet permitted; biodiversity-sensitive site", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "farim", "dfi_stage": "Updated FS (May 2023, NI 43-101; consolidates 2015-2022 de-risk) + fully permitted (Mining Lease 004/2009 + Mining Licence, extension pending) + ESIA — PRE-FID, financing-gated/deprioritized", "sponsor": { "value": "Itafos Inc (TSX-V:IFOS, OTCQX:ITFS), 100% via Itafos Farim SARL / GB Minerals AG; principal shareholder CL Fertilizers (Castlelake LP, PE); HQ Houston", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior subsidiary of a cash-flowing fertilizer producer (PE-backed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — pre-production capex ~US$308m; FID pending for years (parent has prioritised its Brazil [Santana/Araxa] + Idaho [Conda] assets); no FID committed", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$308m; FS 2023; FID long-pending / deprioritised" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 308, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Farim FS pre-production capex ~US$308m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "No DFI committed; parent (Itafos / Castlelake PE) balance-sheet capacity but Farim FID not taken; no specific Farim financing package announced", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Itafos / mining-technology" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding — high-grade phosphate rock concentrate for the global fertiliser market; concentrate samples provided to potential customers", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Itafos / GB Minerals", "basis": "Export phosphate rock; no binding offtake cited." }, "funding_status": { "value": "FS-complete + fully permitted + ESIA done; PRE-FID (FID long-pending; parent-deprioritised); financing-gated", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "agri-mineral (phosphate rock / fertiliser; food security)", "development_impact": { "value": "Guinea-Bissau's FIRST modern mine; food-security/fertiliser; limited local infrastructure must be built; resettlement village (ESIA-screened); govt 10% free-carry (2014 Mining Code)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Knight Piesold / miningdataonline" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-FID (long-pending); ~4.2-yr payback once built", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Parent/PE-backed (Itafos/Castlelake); govt 10% free-carry; financing not committed; mining-licence extension being filed", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Catalytic first-mine in a fragile state + food-security/fertiliser; high developmental additionality but parent-deprioritised — a clear DFI entry point", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "High-grade phosphate FS (NPV US$572m/IRR 34.9%, ~US$308m capex) + fully permitted + ESIA + first-modern-mine catalytic impact — but PRE-FID for years (parent-deprioritised toward Brazil/Idaho), Guinea-Bissau NOV-2025 COUP + chronic instability, first-mine infrastructure to build, 2023 FS aging", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "agri", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "boumadine", "dfi_stage": "PEA (4 Nov 2025, NI 43-101; report filed 18 Dec 2025) + mining permit + FS work program commenced (Mar 2026; FS targeted H2-2027) — PEA-stage (pre-DFS), self-funded developer", "sponsor": { "value": "Aya Gold & Silver Inc (TSX:AYA, OTCQX:AYASF), Canadian; anchored in Morocco; operates the producing Zgounder silver mine; mining permit held (32 km2)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior backed by a cash-flowing producer (Zgounder)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Future construction capital not yet defined at FS level; Aya self-funds studies from Zgounder operating cashflow + market; PEA-stage", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "PEA-stage; FS to H2-2027; construction capex to be set at FS; Aya funds studies internally" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "PEA-stage; firm capex/NPV await the Feasibility Study (H2-2027)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; Aya self-funds development from Zgounder cashflow + equity" }, "offtake": { "value": "None yet (PEA-stage); flotation plant to produce separate zinc, lead and pyrite concentrates with payable gold/silver -> smelter offtake to be arranged; near-term cashflow from a 260kt legacy pyrite-stockpile reclaim (~2.5Moz AgEq)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Morocco World News / Aya", "basis": "Concentrate (not spot doré); no binding offtake at PEA stage." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PEA-complete (Nov 2025); FS work underway (360,000m infill drilling 2026-27; FS H2-2027); mining permit held; not a construction-financing decision yet", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious + base polymetallic (Au-Ag-Zn-Pb; ~61% gold / 21% silver / 13% zinc / 5% lead revenue)", "development_impact": { "value": "Anti-Atlas (Province of Errachidia); grid-power transmission line/substation + access roads planned; legacy-stockpile reclaim provides early local activity", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Morocco World News" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Legacy-stockpile reclaim near-term (20-24 months); mine production post-FID (FS H2-2027)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Self-funded development (Aya/Zgounder cashflow + equity); construction financing structure to follow FS", "state": "Derived" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Morocco precious-metals + base-metals development in a stable, mining-friendly jurisdiction; producer-backed (less DFI-dependent); no Chinese or Western-DFI party in the disclosed capital structure — a new-region asset", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "District-scale Moroccan polymetallic with a positive 2025 PEA and an FS underway, backed by a cash-flowing producer (Aya) in a stable jurisdiction — but PEA-stage (no reserves yet; FS to H2-2027); firm NPV/capex not yet at FS level (not stated here)", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "lofdal", "dfi_stage": "PFS (Dec 2025, NI 43-101 'Lofdal 2B-4') + FULLY PERMITTED (25-yr Mining Licence ML200) + DFS underway (JOGMEC-funded; DFS targeted Q2 2027) — pre-DFS, sovereign-DFI-backed", "sponsor": { "value": "Namibia Critical Metals Inc (TSXV:NMI, OTCQX:NMREF) 95% (5% for Historically Disadvantaged Namibians); JOGMEC (Japanese govt agency) earning 40% (-> up to 50%); Toyota Tsusho partner (Mar 2026)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior with a Japanese sovereign-agency (JOGMEC) JV partner", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Capex ~US$348m (Dec-2025 PFS, 100%-equity-financed basis); JOGMEC funds the earn-in (C$10m staged + C$3m DFS top-up), can provide non-dilutive Pre-FID capital, and has a ROFR to FULLY FUND through commercial production", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$348m; JOGMEC earn-in + Pre-FID option + full-funding ROFR substantially de-risks capital" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 348, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Lofdal Dec-2025 PFS capex ~US$348m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "JOGMEC (Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, a Japanese government agency) — JV partner earning 40-50%, funding the DFS, with a Pre-FID-capital option and a ROFR to fully fund to production; Toyota Tsusho strategic partner", "state": "Sourced", "src": "NCMI / JOGMEC / Crux Investor", "basis": "JOGMEC = sovereign metals-security agency; strongest sovereign-DFI backing in the screen's REE set." }, "offtake": { "value": "JOGMEC holds a first-right-of-refusal to PURCHASE ALL PRODUCTION at market prices; JOGMEC-Iwatani investment in Carester/Caremag (France) offers a HREE separation pathway — strong Japan-aligned demand, but a ROFR not a committed binding offtake", "state": "Sourced", "src": "NCMI / Crux Investor", "basis": "JOGMEC purchase-all ROFR + Carester separation; ROFR is optionality, not committed volume." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PFS-complete + fully permitted; DFS underway (JOGMEC-funded, Q2 2027); no production-start date disclosed; FID after DFS", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (HEAVY rare earths: dysprosium, terbium, yttrium for high-temperature permanent magnets)", "development_impact": { "value": "Tier-1 ex-China HREE; 5% held for Historically Disadvantaged Namibians; uranium/thorium-free concentrate; Japan supply-security integration", "state": "Sourced", "src": "NCMI / discoveryalert" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-DFS (Q2 2027) + FID; no production-start date disclosed", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "JOGMEC earn-in 40-50% + Pre-FID-capital option + full-funding ROFR + purchase-all ROFR; NCMI/HDN protected at >=26% carried", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Japan (JOGMEC) HREE supply security (Dy/Tb/Y, ex-China; >90% of HREE processing is in China); EV/wind/defence magnet demand — among the strongest sovereign-DFI-backed cases in the screen", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Tier-1 ex-China HEAVY-REE (Dy/Tb/Y) + fully permitted + JOGMEC sovereign backing (earn-in + full-funding + purchase-all ROFR) is an exceptional DFI/financeability profile — but PFS-level (DFS Q2-2027), low grade (0.16% TREO), high capital intensity (~US$348m for ~2,000tpa TREO), remote (power/water to execute)", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "haib", "dfi_stage": "PEA (4 Sep 2025, NI 43-101; filed 8 Oct 2025) + updated MRE (Mar 2026) + ESIA underway (Environmental Clearance Certificate application early 2026); PFS targeted late 2026 — PEA-stage, pre-DFS", "sponsor": { "value": "Koryx Copper Inc / S.A. (TSX-V:KRY, NSX:KYX, OTCQB:KRYXF; continued to Luxembourg Mar 2026), 100%; formerly Deep-South Resources; CEO Heye Daun", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior copper developer (large-capex project relative to sponsor)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes, large — PEA upfront capex ~US$1.56bn (incl 10% contingency) for a junior; financing steps come after PFS (late-2026)/DFS", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$1.56bn; junior sponsor; clear future DFI/syndicate candidate, not engaged yet" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 1560, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Haib PEA upfront construction ~US$1.56bn (Sep 2025)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI engaged yet; financing follows PFS/DFS" }, "offtake": { "value": "None yet (PEA-stage) — Cu/Mo concentrate (+ potential Cu cathode via oxide heap-leach) into liquid copper markets (LME-priced)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Koryx / African Mining Market", "basis": "Copper is liquid; no binding offtake at PEA stage." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PEA-complete + updated MRE; ESIA underway; PFS late-2026, then DFS/permitting/financing — not a construction-financing decision yet", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "transition (copper) + molybdenum + gold byproduct (Cu-Mo-Au porphyry)", "development_impact": { "value": "Large, long-life (~23-24yr) operation in Namibia's //Karas Region; ~92ktpa payable Cu (first 10yr, PEA basis); long exploration pedigree (Falconbridge/Rio Tinto/Teck)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining-technology / Koryx", "basis": "Production figures vary across sources; PEA headline used." }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Post-PFS (late-2026) -> DFS -> FID -> construction; multi-year", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Junior-led; construction-financing structure to follow PFS/DFS; large capex implies DFI/bank syndicate eventually", "state": "Derived" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Copper supply security (core transition metal) at scale in a stable jurisdiction; large capex makes it a natural future DFI/syndicate candidate", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Large, long-life Namibian Cu-Mo-Au porphyry (copper = core transition metal) in a stable jurisdiction with deep exploration pedigree — but PEA-stage (PFS late-2026; pre-DFS), low grade, and a big US$1.56bn capex for a junior with financing not yet arranged", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "orom-cross", "dfi_stage": "DFS completed (Dec 2025) + 21-yr Mining Licence (2019) + revised JORC Resource (Nov 2025); now in financing/development phase — DFS-grade, TWO DFIs engaged", "sponsor": { "value": "Blencowe Resources Plc (LSE:BRES), UK-listed, 100% via Ugandan subsidiary (Consolidated Resources Uganda)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior with two DFIs engaged (US DFC + AFC)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — phased, low capital intensity: Phase 1 ~US$40m (20ktpa concentrate, 1H-2027), Phase 2 ~US$120m (->70ktpa concentrate + 20ktpa USPG); ~US$160-170m total incl downstream beneficiation; P2 expansions from internal cashflow", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Low-capex phased build; P1 ~US$40m; DFI-led financing being assembled" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 160, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Orom-Cross DFS: P1 ~US$40m + P2 ~US$120m (~US$160-170m incl downstream)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "US DFC — US$5m Technical Assistance Grant (2023; ~US$4.75m disbursed) AND retains FIRST RIGHT to provide cornerstone DEBT funding; AFC (African Finance Corporation) Expression of Interest for both debt AND project-level equity (P1 + future phases)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Blencowe / Investegate / miningweekly", "basis": "Two DFIs engaged (US DFC cornerstone-debt first-right + AFC EOI) — a strong DFI-financeability profile for a junior." }, "offtake": { "value": "Non-binding offtakes covering ALL Phase-1 volumes (convert to binding on P1 financing); Western buyer PAM (19kt/5yr) + Qingdao TaiDa (5ktpa); plus a captive in-country downstream USPG facility (Gulu) taking up to ~50% of concentrate; EU SAFELOOP link", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Blencowe DFS / intellinews", "basis": "Strong demand pathway but currently NON-BINDING; captive downstream de-risks ~50%." }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS-complete + permitted; assembling P1 project finance (~US$40-45m target, primarily non-Blencowe-equity); DFC/AFC cornerstone", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "transition (natural flake graphite -> battery anode + purified USPG)", "development_impact": { "value": "Uganda's prospective FIRST commercial-scale graphite mine; in-country downstream beneficiation (battery-grade USPG); 100% hydropower; strong community programmes (water/solar/school/clinic, scholarship)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Blencowe / intellinews" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Phase-1 first production targeted 1H-2027 (post P1 financing)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "DFI-led P1 package (DFC cornerstone debt + AFC debt/equity EOI) primarily via non-Blencowe-equity structures; P2 traditional debt + strategic partner; later phases from cashflow", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Ex-China graphite supply security (China >90% of processing) + first-of-kind Ugandan beneficiation + DFC/AFC mandates aligned — strong, multi-DFI case", "state": "Sourced" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "DFS-complete, permitted, low-capex phased graphite with in-country battery-grade beneficiation and TWO DFIs engaged (DFC cornerstone-debt first-right + AFC EOI) — exceptionally financeable for a junior; but offtakes are NON-BINDING (convert on financing), P1 finance not yet closed, and 2025 graphite oversupply/weak pricing is a revenue-assumption risk. Headline DFS IRR (96%) is the company's study figure", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "A", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Bankable study (DFS/FS or construction) with a genuine financing gap or confirmed DFI engagement, in an acceptable-risk jurisdiction — DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "financing_status": { "state": "Derived", "value": "OPEN GAP", "detail": "No committed main DFI/ECA debt — a DFI could enter now.", "note": "The genuinely actionable origination opportunity: bankable study, gates cleared, main construction debt not yet committed." } }, "underwriting": { "state": "Derived", "capital_need": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "US$170m", "src": "bankability.json (study capex)" }, "indicative_senior_debt": { "state": "Derived", "value": "US$94m–US$110m", "basis": "Project-finance gearing band: senior debt 55–65% of Sourced study capex (typical mining PF leverage). Indicative — not a DSCR-sculpted facility size." }, "readiness": { "state": "Derived", "value": "INDICATIVE — full DSCR-sculpted debt sizing + Monte-Carlo downside pending a bankable cash-flow model for this asset", "basis": "The platform’s full DSCR/Monte-Carlo underwriting (see /tools/debt-sizing/, /dfi-screen/credit-memo/) is run on assets with a complete Sourced cash-flow model; development-stage Tier-A assets carry an indicative capex-geared read until that model is built. Consistent with the platform’s honest origination-strong / underwriting-developing self-assessment." }, "tools": [ "/tools/debt-sizing/", "/dfi-screen/credit-memo/" ], "economics": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "After-tax NPV +US$1254m at 10% (real) — value-accretive at the study’s own price deck (a positive after-tax NPV at the study discount rate implies an IRR above the hurdle).", "basis": "Reported post-tax study NPV (Sourced, see bankability feed). Value-accretive = after-tax NPV>0 at the study discount rate. NPVs are at each study’s own price deck, commodity and vintage — NOT cross-asset comparable, and not a financing-capacity (DSCR) measure." } } }, { "id": "bankan", "dfi_stage": "DFS (Jun 2025, builds on Apr-2024 PFS) + ESIA approved (env compliance certificate, Jan 2025) + Exploitation Permit application (Jan 2025) in final govt review — construction-ready, financing commencing", "sponsor": { "value": "Predictive Discovery Ltd (ASX:PDI), 100%; post-Apr-2026 merger with Robex PDI now also operates Kiniero (Guinea) + Nampala (Mali) — a producer+developer; MD Andrew Pardey", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "developer now backed by producing mines (Kiniero + Nampala cashflow)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Capex ~US$463m (incl ~US$34m contingency); producing-asset cashflow supports but does not eliminate external funding; financing process commencing post-DFS", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$463m; bankable gold DFS; commercial project-finance/streaming/royalty candidate" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 463, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Bankan DFS pre-production capex ~US$463m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI named; commercial project-finance/streaming/royalty pathway plus producing-asset cashflow" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore produced on site -> sold at spot (no offtake required); 92.8% recovery; ~250kozpa", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Predictive Discovery / miningreview", "basis": "Gold doré is spot-liquid; no offtake counterparty needed." }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS-complete; ESIA approved; Exploitation Permit in final review; construction targeted Q2-2026 subject to permit + FID; financing process commencing", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "One of Africa's largest undeveloped gold projects (5.53Moz MRE / 2.95Moz reserve); ~250kozpa over 12.2yr; ~1,500 peak construction jobs; potentially Guinea's largest gold mine", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Predictive Discovery / kalkine" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Construction Q2-2026 target -> commercial production Q2-2028 (some analysts model FY29)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Producer-backed (Kiniero/Nampala cashflow) + commercial project finance/streaming/royalty; permit + FID pending", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Large bankable West African gold; more a commercial-finance / M&A target than a DFI-dependent asset (Argonaut: permit may facilitate acquisition by a West African producer)", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Bankable, construction-ready flagship gold (5.53Moz; NPV US$1.6bn @US$2,400/oz, IRR 46%; capex US$463m; AISC US$1,057/oz) backed by a now-producing sponsor — but GUINEA IS UNDER MILITARY-JUNTA RULE (2021 coup; elevated political risk), the Exploitation Permit is not yet granted, and the site abuts the Upper Niger National Park (biodiversity-sensitive)", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "zanaga", "dfi_stage": "FS + FULLY PERMITTED (Mining Licence + Environmental Permit) + Apr-2026 economic update (DRI-grade revision) — pre-construction; world-class scale but infrastructure-stranded", "sponsor": { "value": "Zanaga Iron Ore Company (LON:ZIOC), 100% via MPD Congo (Jumelles BVI/Mauritius); GLENCORE FULLY EXITED (sold down 2022 -> Mar 2025, ~US$15-21.5m buyback); Sir Mick Davis associated", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Glencore no longer involved (clean); COI hard-stop not triggered." }, "sponsor_type": "junior with ownership in transition (pending Red Arc majority-sale)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Very large — Apr-2026 update: Stage 1 capex ~US$2.17bn; combined Stage 1+2 ~US$4.05bn; infrastructure-heavy (must build a slurry pipeline + a NEW mining port north of Pointe-Noire; no mineral port exists)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "US$2.17-4.05bn capex + greenfield rail/pipeline/port; major DFI/strategic-partner + infrastructure financing required" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 2170, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Zanaga Apr-2026 economic update Stage-1 capex ~US$2.17bn (combined ~US$4.05bn)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI engaged; financing via a pending Red Arc Minerals majority-sale (up to 87.5% for US$150m, term sheet Feb 2026)" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding — Glencore legacy offtake removed on exit; DRI-grade (68%+ Fe) pellet feed targets the green-steel/H2-DRI market; Gulf Iron & Steel relationship early; no offtake agreement announced", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ecofin / discoveryalert", "basis": "Premium DRI-grade product; no binding offtake yet." }, "funding_status": { "value": "Permitted + Apr-2026 economic update; pre-construction; pending Red Arc majority-sale to fund development; financing not arranged", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "industrial (high-grade DRI-grade iron ore; green-steel/H2-DRI relevance)", "development_impact": { "value": "World-class scale (6.9Bt JORC, among the largest globally); 30Mtpa over ~30yr (staged); premium DRI pellet feed for low-carbon steel; major Congolese infrastructure (pipeline + new port)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Zanaga / miningweekly" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Pre-construction; staged (Stage 1 then Stage 2 magnetite expansion); timeline gated on financing + infrastructure + ownership resolution", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Pending sale of up to 87.5% to Red Arc Minerals (US$150m; term sheet Feb 2026) — Red Arc/Heeney Capital is related to ZIOC (Heeney is an indirect ZIOC shareholder and RAM co-founder)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Related-party majority sale — a diligence flag; ownership in transition." }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "World-class iron ore + DRI/green-steel relevance + huge infrastructure-enabling capex = high developmental additionality, but financing routed through a related-party PE sale, not a DFI", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "World-class (6.9Bt), fully permitted, high-grade DRI/green-steel iron ore with a refreshed Apr-2026 economic case (Stage-1 NPV US$2.54bn) and Glencore cleanly exited — but infrastructure-STRANDED (US$2.17-4.05bn capex + greenfield pipeline/port), core FS is 2014-vintage (2026 update), NO binding offtake, and a PENDING RELATED-PARTY majority-sale (Red Arc/Heeney) leaves ownership in transition", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "muntanga", "dfi_stage": "FS/BFS (GoviEx, Jan/Mar 2025, NI 43-101; restated by Atomic Eagle) + FULLY MINE-PERMITTED + ESIA APPROVED (ZEMA, Jun 2026) + RAP 'No Objection' (Jun 2026) — near-term, financing-gated", "sponsor": { "value": "Atomic Eagle Limited (ASX:AEU, OTCQX:AEUXF) now 100% (OWNERSHIP TRANSITION from GoviEx Uranium, which authored the FS); CEO lineage via GoviEx (Daniel Major)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "GoviEx -> Atomic Eagle ownership transition (recent); Atomic Eagle restated the GoviEx FS." }, "sponsor_type": "junior uranium developer (recently changed hands GoviEx -> Atomic Eagle)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Yes — capex ~US$282m (heap-leach); financing-gated; LOIs from financing institutions received; advisor (Endeavour Financial) appointed; no DFI named", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$282m; near-term; LOIs received but financing not closed" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 282, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Muntanga FS initial capital ~US$281.9m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI engaged; LOIs from (unnamed) financing institutions; debt/royalty/streaming/offtake options under evaluation" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding — discussions underway with potential off-takers (both Western and non-Western nuclear markets)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "African Mining Market / GoviEx", "basis": "Uranium term contracts not yet signed." }, "funding_status": { "value": "FS-complete + fully permitted + ESIA/RAP approved (Jun 2026); financing-gated (LOIs received); production ~2yr after financing (base case 2028)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical/transition (uranium — nuclear fuel; energy security + clean-energy/AI power demand)", "development_impact": { "value": "Near-term uranium (one of few that can help bridge the supply gap); supports Zambia's mining diversification beyond copper; IFC-PS-aligned, no tailings storage, low acid (Zambia surplus sulfuric acid)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "World Nuclear News / furtherafrica" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Base case ~2028 (uranium within ~4 months of mining; ~2yr after financing); Atomic Eagle's larger-scale expansion path targets first production ~2030-31", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Financing-gated; debt/royalty/streaming/offtake/equity mix under evaluation (advisor Endeavour Financial); Atomic Eagle also pursuing a 4-5Mlb/yr expansion case (FS late-2027)", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Uranium supply security (tightening nuclear-fuel market) + Zambia diversification; permitted + IFC-PS-aligned — a strong DFI/streaming/offtake-finance candidate", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Near-term, fully-permitted, IFC-PS-aligned uranium (FS NPV US$243m / IRR 20.8% / capex US$282m; ESIA + RAP approved Jun 2026) into a tight uranium market — but it CHANGED HANDS (GoviEx -> Atomic Eagle), financing is not closed (LOIs only), grade is low (~309-359ppm), and Lake Kariba proximity drives E&S containment requirements", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "critical_nonEBRD", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "bilboes", "dfi_stage": "FS published (25 Nov 2025) + DECISION TO PROCEED (FID) + FULLY PERMITTED + FEED commencing; advanced multi-stage funding underway — among the most advanced assets in the screen", "sponsor": { "value": "Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (NYSE American/AIM/VFEX:CMCL), 100% (acquired Bilboes Gold Jan 2023); established Zimbabwe gold producer (operates the Blanket Mine); CEO Mark Learmonth", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "established in-country gold producer (Blanket Mine cashflow)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Peak funding requirement ~US$484m, primarily NON-RECOURSE senior debt + Blanket internal equity + royalties/streams/mezzanine/convertibles; NOT DFI-dependent", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Peak funding ~US$484m; advanced commercial-finance execution, producer-backed" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 484, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Bilboes FS peak funding requirement ~US$484m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "Commercial finance, not DFI: US$150m convertibles (raised Jan 2026) + Zimbabwean/SA bank interim facility + project finance + Blanket cashflow" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore -> spot market (no offtake required); Caledonia has a gold HEDGE (US$3,500/oz floor, ~3,000 oz/month Jan-2026 to Dec-2028 on Blanket) to underpin Bilboes funding", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Caledonia / stocktitan", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid; hedge supports lenders." }, "funding_status": { "value": "FID taken; ADVANCED commercial funding — US$150m convertible notes RAISED (Jan 2026, 4x oversubscribed); interim bank facility (Zim/SA) targeted mid-2026; project finance from Q1 2026; full package targeted late-2026/early-2027", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "Large high-grade gold; FX earnings + tax for Zimbabwe; community participation schemes (replicating Blanket's Gwanda Community Share Ownership Trust); first production ~late 2028", "state": "Sourced", "src": "miningweekly / Caledonia" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "FEED now; ~2yr construction; first production ~late 2028 (+5-month ramp)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Non-recourse senior debt + Blanket internal equity + flexible instruments (royalties/streams/mezzanine/convertibles); minimise dilution", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Bankable, producer-backed, commercially financeable gold — more a commercial-finance/M&A story than DFI-dependent; FX-earner for Zimbabwe", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Among the MOST ADVANCED assets in the screen — FS done, FID taken, fully permitted, with US$150m convertibles already raised (4x oversubscribed) + bank facility + project finance underway + Blanket cashflow (1.75Moz P&P @2.26 g/t; AISC US$1,061/oz; ~US$484m peak funding) — but ZIMBABWE carries elevated currency/fiscal/monetary risk (mitigated by Caledonia's proven in-country track record), the ore is refractory (BIOX), and the full funding package is not yet closed", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "douta", "dfi_stage": "PFS completed (Jan 2026) + ESIA APPROVED (Senegal Ministry of Environment, Jan 2026); Mining Convention being finalised; detailed design + construction H2-2026 — PFS-stage, advancing to construction", "sponsor": { "value": "Thor Explorations Ltd (AIM:THX, TSXV:THX), 100% (acquired remaining 30% from IMC, Sep 2025); operates the producing Segilola gold mine in Nigeria; ~US$137m cash (end-2025)", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "developer backed by a producing mine (Segilola cashflow)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Initial development capital ~US$253.5m; ~US$137m cash on hand (end-2025) + Segilola cashflow; construction financing to be finalised", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$253.5m vs ~US$137m cash + Segilola cashflow; commercial-finance candidate" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 254, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Douta PFS initial development capital ~US$253.5m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI named; producer-backed (Thor/Segilola) + commercial finance" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore -> spot market (no offtake required); ~1Moz LOM; oxide phase ~103kozpa", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining-technology / African Mining Market", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PFS-complete + ESIA approved; Mining Convention being finalised; detailed design + construction H2-2026; first production 2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "~1Moz LOM over 12.6yr; would add to Senegal's industrial gold sector (after Sabodala-Massawa, Mako); jobs + FX/tax", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining-technology / Ecofin" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Detailed design + construction H2-2026; processing commissioning Q1-2028; first production 2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Producer-backed (Thor/Segilola cashflow + US$137m cash) + commercial finance; Mining Convention with Senegal pending", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Bankable, producer-backed West African gold in a stable jurisdiction — more commercial-finance/M&A than DFI-dependent", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Producer-backed (Thor/Segilola) Senegalese gold with a Jan-2026 PFS + approved ESIA + ~US$137m cash, advancing to construction in a stable jurisdiction — but it is PFS-level (DFS 'fast-track' still to come), the Mining Convention is not yet finalised, and firm NPV/IRR were not captured this cycle", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "bekisopa", "dfi_stage": "PFS completed (Mar 2025) + DFS commencing + EIA / mining-licence application underway; tenement renewed — PFS-stage, FID targeted H1-2026", "sponsor": { "value": "AKORA Resources Ltd (ASX:AKO), 100% (acquired 2014); Australian junior with four Madagascar iron-ore projects; CEO Peter Bird", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "small-cap junior (low-capex, near-term DSO)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Low — start-up capex ~US$60.6m (capital-light: contract mining + mobile processing); raised A$2.91m (Aug 2025) for DFS/EIA/permitting; construction financing to be arranged", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Low capex ~US$60.6m; small-cap junior; financing not yet arranged" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 61, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Bekisopa PFS start-up capital ~US$60.6m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; small junior; construction financing to be arranged" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding — DSO (lump + fines) to Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace steelmakers via the port at Toliara; Stage-2 +68% Fe concentrate would target DRI/green-steel", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Akora / smallcaps", "basis": "DSO saleable; no binding offtake; DRI-grade concentrate is a Stage-2 future option." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PFS-complete; DFS + EIA + mining-licence application underway; FID targeted H1-2026; first shipment Q3-2027", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "industrial (DSO iron ore for BF-BOF; Stage-2 +68% Fe DRI-grade concentrate / green-steel optionality)", "development_impact": { "value": "Near-term cashflow (low-capex DSO); Madagascar govt identifies Bekisopa as a 'project of significance'; Tanamarina + Bekisopa community support; new bypass road to Toliara port", "state": "Sourced", "src": "smallcaps / themarketbull" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "FID targeted H1-2026; first shipment Q3-2027 (fast, capital-light DSO start-up)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Junior-led staged development (DSO Stage-1 -> magnetite concentrate Stage-2 funded from DSO cashflow); construction financing to be arranged", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Near-term, low-capex iron-ore cashflow + DRI-grade (green-steel) Stage-2 optionality; a small but fast-payback project", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Low-capex (~US$60.6m), high-IRR (PFS NPV10 US$147m / IRR 86% / 1.8yr payback) near-term DSO iron-ore starter with Stage-2 DRI-grade upside and government 'project of significance' status — but PFS-level (DFS commencing), a small-cap junior with financing not yet arranged, EIA not yet approved, and Madagascar's Oct-2025 coup/civil unrest place it at elevated risk", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "enchi", "dfi_stage": "PFS completed (effective 23 Jun 2026) + updated MRE (Mar 2026); mining-lease application to be lodged in 2026 — PFS-stage (pre-DFS), advancing to lease", "sponsor": { "value": "Newcore Gold Ltd (TSX-V:NCAU, OTCQX:NCAUF), 100%; management 13% equity; CEO Luke Alexander", "state": "Sourced" }, "sponsor_type": "junior gold developer (management-aligned)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Upfront capex ~US$351m (5.5Mtpa CIL, 24-month build, contract mining); 'fully funded to complete the PFS'; construction financing to be arranged", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$351m; junior; construction financing not yet arranged" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 351, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Enchi PFS upfront capital ~US$351m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; junior; construction financing to be arranged post-lease" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore -> spot market (no offtake required); ~104kozpa avg (peak ~137koz)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Newcore / globenewswire", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PFS-complete (Jun 2026); mining-lease application this year; construction financing to follow", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "~10yr LOM; district-scale on Ghana's Bibiani Shear Zone (40km, near Newmont Ahafo, Asante Bibiani/Chirano); Ghana is Africa's largest gold producer", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Newcore / globenewswire" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Mining lease (2026) -> financing -> 24-month construction; multi-year to production", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Junior-led; commercial project finance to follow the mining lease; management 13% aligned", "state": "Derived" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Bankable junior gold in a stable, mining-friendly jurisdiction (Ghana) — commercial-finance/M&A candidate more than DFI-dependent", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Robust, fresh (Jun-2026) PFS — ~10yr/104kozpa, IRR 37% @US$3,800/oz, capex US$351m, 1.6yr payback — district-scale on a prolific Ghanaian gold belt in a low-risk jurisdiction; but PFS-level (DFS + mining lease still ahead), LOW grade (0.56 g/t Indicated, so economics are gold-price-leveraged; IRR quoted at US$3,800/oz), and construction financing not yet arranged", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "boundiali", "dfi_stage": "PFS delivered (May 2026, AACE Class 4) + maiden Ore Reserve + Environmental Compliance Certificates ISSUED (20 May 2026, all 3 tenements) + mining-licence applications lodged + Board endorsed DFS — PFS-stage, DFS Q3/Q4-2026", "sponsor": { "value": "Aurum Resources Ltd (ASX:AUN), operator/owner (3 tenements BST/BD/BM); strategic shareholders include the Lundin Family, Montage Gold and Zhaojin Gold (~8.5%); MD Dr Caigen Wang", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Operator is AURUM (not Turaco — Turaco's CIV asset is the separate Afema project)." }, "sponsor_type": "well-backed junior (A$40.2m cash; strategic shareholders)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "PFS-stage capex (AACE Class 4 +/-25%) — not captured this cycle; A$40.2m cash funds studies/discovery; construction financing to be arranged toward FID (late-Q4-2026)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Construction financing not yet arranged; well-cashed for studies" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "PFS capex (Class 4) not captured this cycle; DFS to firm" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; well-backed junior (Lundin/Montage/Zhaojin shareholders); construction financing to be arranged" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore (CIL) -> spot market; a DFS upside is flotation + concentrate offtake to an established roaster partner (refractory uplift to ~90% recovery vs 71% CIL baseline)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Aurum PFS / investingnews", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid; flotation-concentrate route is a DFS option." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PFS-complete + maiden Reserve + env certificates issued + licence applications lodged; Board endorsed DFS (Q3/Q4-2026); FID late-Q4-2026; first gold H1-2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "3.0Moz MRE (grown 1.58 -> 3.22Moz in 17 months); Baoule-Syama belt (near Resolute Syama 11.5Moz, Montage Kone 6Moz, Tongon 5Moz); supports CIV's 100t/yr gold target", "state": "Sourced", "src": "capmad / Aurum" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "DFS Q3/Q4-2026 -> FID late-Q4-2026 -> first gold H1-2028 (long-lead procurement starting pre-FID)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Junior-led; well-backed (Lundin/Montage/Zhaojin strategic shareholders + A$40.2m cash); construction financing to be arranged toward FID", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Large, fast-growing West African gold in an established gold hub — commercial-finance/M&A candidate (majors active on the belt)", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Fast-advancing 3.0Moz CIV gold — fresh PFS + maiden Reserve + env certificates issued + Board-endorsed DFS, well-backed by Lundin/Montage/Zhaojin — on a top West African gold belt; but PFS-level (AACE Class 4 +/-25%; DFS Q3/Q4-2026), firm NPV/capex not captured this cycle, construction financing not yet arranged, grade is low (1.0 g/t) with refractory/flotation upside still to be proven, and a ~8.5% Zhaojin (Chinese) shareholding is a minor non-controlling note", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "afema", "dfi_stage": "PFS completed (17 Jun 2026) + maiden JORC Probable Ore Reserve (1.91Moz); moving immediately to DFS (targeted Q2-CY2027) + detailed design; ESIA workstreams underway — PFS-stage on a GRANTED mining permit", "sponsor": { "value": "Turaco Gold Ltd (ASX:TCG), 80% (JV partner Sodim 20%, may convert to a 1.5% NSR); MD Justin Tremain (previously sold Exore to Perseus, Renaissance/Okvau to Emerald); A$60m cash (31 Mar 2026), fully funded to FID", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Afema is Turaco's CIV asset (the counterpart to Aurum's Boundiali)." }, "sponsor_type": "well-funded junior developer (proven MD; funded to FID)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Total development capital US$410m (incl US$24m contingency + US$32m pre-strip); A$60m cash funds studies to FID; construction/project finance to be arranged toward FID", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex US$410m; funded to FID; construction finance to be arranged" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 410, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Afema PFS total development capital US$410m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; well-funded junior; project finance to be arranged toward FID" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore (4Mtpa CIL + 2Mtpa flotation/UFG/CIL; 87-88% recovery) -> spot market; ~200kozpa over 10.3yr (2.0Moz recovered)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Turaco PFS / smallcaps", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PFS-complete (Jun 2026) + maiden Reserve; DFS Q2-2027; first gold 2029; fully funded to FID (A$60m cash)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "US$0.8-1.2bn royalties+tax to the State of Cote d'Ivoire + US$30-40m local community contributions + considerable local employment/procurement; one of West Africa's largest undeveloped golds", "state": "Sourced", "src": "miningweekly / Turaco PFS" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "DFS Q2-CY2027 -> early works -> first gold 2029 (a multi-year runway despite PFS completion)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Junior-led (Turaco 80% / Sodim 20%); funded to FID; project finance to be arranged for construction", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Large, high-quality West African gold (NPV5% US$1.5-2.7bn @US$3-4k/oz) — a commercial-finance/M&A candidate (majors active on the Sefwi-Bibiani belt)", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "One of West Africa's most significant undeveloped golds — fresh (Jun-2026) PFS, maiden 1.91Moz Reserve, 4.65Moz MRE, ~200kozpa/10.3yr, post-tax NPV5% US$1.486bn @US$3,000/oz (IRR 60%), on a GRANTED mining permit, proven MD, funded to FID; but PFS-level (DFS Q2-2027), first gold not until 2029 (long runway), construction/project finance not yet arranged, a 20% Sodim JV interest, and a ~15% CIV state free-carry (modelled)", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "tgme", "dfi_stage": "CONSTRUCTION-stage — bulk earthworks + civils underway, contractors mobilised (160+ on site); Optimised Feasibility Study (Feb 2026); plant commissioning targeted end-2026, first gold Q1-2027 (not yet producing)", "sponsor": { "value": "Theta Gold Mines Ltd (ASX:TGM), 74% (via Theta Gold SA; 26% held by Black Economic Empowerment entities incl Landowners' + Employee Trusts); Exec Chairman Bill Guy; COO Jacques Du Triou (ex-Harmony)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Operator is THETA GOLD MINES (ASX:TGM), NOT Pan African Resources (a separate SA producer)." }, "sponsor_type": "junior in construction (substantially financed)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Initial capital US$102m (peak funding US$77m); substantially financed — see DFIs/ECAs; remaining package being closed", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Construction-stage; financing substantially arranged (DFI + streaming + bond)" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 102, "state": "Sourced", "src": "TGME Optimised FS initial capital US$102m (peak funding US$77m)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "IDC (Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa) — R622m / ~US$35m debt facility approved Jun 2025 (7-yr, 18-month moratorium); plus Sprott Resource Streaming US$70m and a Nebari Partners ~US$80m secured loan / ~US$90m bond", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Wikipedia / Ecofin / discoveryalert", "basis": "IDC South Africa is a DFI — an actual DFI engagement, construction-stage." }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore -> spot market; Phase-1 ~80kozpa (scaling toward 160-200kozpa); first gold Q1-2027", "state": "Sourced", "src": "miningreview / miningweekly", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid." }, "funding_status": { "value": "CONSTRUCTION underway; substantially financed (IDC + Sprott streaming + Nebari bond + Golden Asia/High Gift earthworks); commissioning end-2026, first gold Q1-2027", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "Revival of the historic Pilgrim's Rest/Sabie goldfield (Mpumalanga; >6.7Moz historical); ~70% local-hire workforce; 26% BEE (Landowners/Employee Trusts) ownership; SA jobs + DFI (IDC) backing", "state": "Sourced", "src": "exportfocusafrica / Prospect" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Construction underway -> commissioning end-2026 -> first gold Q1-2027 (near-term, the most advanced in the screen)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Construction-financed mix: IDC (SA DFI) debt + Sprott stream + Nebari bond + Golden Asia/High Gift earthworks bridge; ASX-listed sponsor 74% / 26% BEE", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "DFI-anchored (IDC) construction-stage gold reviving a historic goldfield with strong local-content/BEE impact — the readiness end of the screen", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "The most advanced asset in the screen — CONSTRUCTION underway, substantially financed including an actual DFI (IDC South Africa US$35m), high-grade (6.1Moz resource), Optimised FS pre-tax NPV10 US$654m / IRR 84% / 29-month payback (the revised-FS figure is pre-tax; not directly comparable to the post-tax NPVs quoted for other screen assets), first gold Q1-2027, strong BEE/local-content impact; residual risks are construction-execution, a fixed 12.75% bond service obligation, and South African operational/power complexity", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "diamba-sud", "dfi_stage": "PEA (15 Oct 2025) + ESIA APPROVED (environmental decree, Jun 2026) + exploitation-permit application filed (Feb 2026); early works underway; FS targeted Q2-2026, construction decision mid-2026 — PEA-stage but advanced (producer-backed early works)", "sponsor": { "value": "Fortuna Mining Corp (TSX:FVI, NYSE:FSM), 100% via Boya SA (Senegal state 10% free-carry on permit grant + option up to +25%); acquired via Chesser Resources (2023); a producer (Seguela/CIV etc.) with ~US$330m record FCF (2025)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Operator is Fortuna (via Chesser); Diamba Sud is in SENEGAL, not Mali." }, "sponsor_type": "producer-backed development (Fortuna self-funding early works)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Initial capital US$283.2m; Fortuna funding early works from cashflow (~US$67m allocated); producer-financed", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex US$283.2m; Fortuna producer self-funding -> commercial_funded" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 283, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Diamba Sud PEA initial capital US$283.2m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; Fortuna producer-financed (cashflow)" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore -> spot market; ~147kozpa (first 3yr), AISC US$904/oz; ~840koz LOM over ~8yr", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Fortuna / mining.com", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PEA-complete + ESIA approved; FS Q2-2026; construction decision mid-2026; full construction Q4-2026; first gold Q2-2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "Would add to Senegal's industrial gold sector (after Sabodala-Massawa, Mako); Senegal 10% free-carry (+25% option); jobs/FX/tax", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Fortuna / energycapitalpower" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "FS Q2-2026 -> construction decision mid-2026 -> full construction Q4-2026 -> first gold Q2-2028", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Producer-financed (Fortuna cashflow); Senegal state 10% free-carry (+up to 25% option) on permit grant", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Producer-backed, fast-payback Senegalese gold — commercial-finance/balance-sheet funded, not DFI-dependent", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "High-quality producer-backed Senegalese gold — PEA after-tax NPV5% US$563m / IRR 72% / ~10-month payback @US$2,750/oz, capex US$283.2m, AISC US$904/oz, Indicated 1.25Moz, ESIA approved, early works underway, Fortuna self-funding; but still PEA-level (FS Q2-2026), construction decision pending mid-2026, and a Senegal state 10% free-carry (+up to 25% option)", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "LOW", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "bunyu", "dfi_stage": "FS-complete (updated Stage-1 FS Aug 2023, now being revised by new partner) + EIA Certificate + Mining Licences received; development/financing phase (not yet construction); conditional funding term sheet (Dec 2025)", "sponsor": { "value": "Volt Resources Ltd (ASX:VRC) — currently 100%, but a binding term sheet (Dec 2025) would give Unbounded Opportunities Fund SPC (UOF, Cayman) 62% via US$11.1m equity through Volt Graphite Tanzania (Volt 38%); Tanzania govt to take a free-carried interest", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Control passing to UOF (Cayman) pending CPs." }, "sponsor_type": "junior + offshore-fund JV (financing pending)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Revised Stage-1 target capex ~US$37m (40,000 tpa 94% TGC concentrate, US$450/t opex FOB Mtwara); UOF US$11.1m equity conditional on, among others, 70% non-recourse project debt and >=80% bankable offtake", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$37m; financing CONDITIONAL (UOF term sheet, 4-month CPs)" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 37, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Bunyu revised Stage-1 target capex ~US$37m (UOF plan)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; UOF (Cayman private fund) equity + planned non-recourse project debt, all conditional" }, "offtake": { "value": "None binding — coarse/fine flake offtake negotiations ongoing (a UOF condition is >=80% bankable offtake); past Graphex LOI (2022) + anode-producer bulk-sample interest", "state": "Sourced", "src": "miningweekly / tanzaniainvest", "basis": "No binding offtake; battery-anode + refractory end-uses." }, "funding_status": { "value": "Development/financing phase; UOF binding term sheet (Dec 2025) with 4-month conditions precedent (offtake, non-recourse debt, SEZ status, govt + shareholder agreements, revised FS)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical mineral (natural flake graphite — battery anode material + refractories)", "development_impact": { "value": "Battery/industrial graphite supply-chain diversification away from China; Tanzania jobs/exports; linked to Volt's US (Alabama) downstream refinery strategy; Tanzania govt free-carried interest", "state": "Sourced", "src": "miningweekly / africaminingcommunity" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Financing-stage; 4-month CP window on the UOF term sheet, then revised FS + construction — not yet scheduled", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Pending JV: UOF (Cayman) 62% / Volt 38% via Volt Graphite Tanzania + Tanzania govt free-carry; UOF to arrange equity + non-recourse project debt (conditional)", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Large, China-diversifying graphite with US downstream linkage — but the live constraint is closing conditional financing + binding offtake, not DFI mandate fit", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "World-class graphite resource (461Mt @4.9% TGC = 22.6Mt contained; Reserve 127Mt) with EIA Certificate + Mining Licences and deep-water Mtwara port access, redesigned to a low-capex (~US$37m) 40ktpa Stage-1; but financing is only a CONDITIONAL term sheet (4-month CPs incl >=80% offtake + 70% non-recourse debt), there is NO binding offtake, standalone economics are modest (2018 FS pre-tax NPV10 US$18.6m / IRR 21%), and control would pass to a Cayman offshore fund (UOF, ~62%) whose beneficial ownership warrants enhanced diligence", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "ancuabe", "dfi_stage": "DFS complete (2017, updated 2024) + mining concession granted (2019) + preliminary environmental approval (2018); FID targeted 2025-2026 pending financing + Cabo Delgado security stabilisation", "sponsor": { "value": "Triton Minerals Ltd (ASX:TON), 80% via Grafex Limitada (Mozambique govt 10%); cornerstone backer Shandong Yulong (China, US$5m + recommitment 2024)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Chinese cornerstone (Yulong); Moz govt 10%." }, "sponsor_type": "junior developer with a Chinese cornerstone backer (financing pending)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Total project cost ~US$90.3m (updated DFS 2024, down from US$99.4m); financing not yet secured; Argonaut financial adviser; FID pending", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex ~US$90.3m; financing pending (FID 2025-2026)" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 90, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ancuabe updated DFS total project cost ~US$90.3m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; Chinese cornerstone (Yulong) + financing discussions ongoing" }, "offtake": { "value": "Binding offtake agreements signed 2018 with Chinese buyers (Tianshengda ~16ktpa; Chenyang ~16ktpa, 5+5yr) covering ~half of ~60-70ktpa; plus non-binding Haida/Jinhui", "state": "Sourced", "src": "mining-technology / nsenergybusiness", "basis": "Binding offtakes exist but are 2018-vintage (project since delayed/attacked) -> reconfirmation needed." }, "funding_status": { "value": "DFS-complete + concession + env approval; FID 2025-2026 pending financing + Cabo Delgado security stabilisation", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical mineral (high-purity large-flake graphite — battery anode + flame-retardant/refractory)", "development_impact": { "value": "High-purity large-flake graphite; near Pemba port + power; local workforce; Moz govt 10%; diversifies Mozambican graphite beyond Syrah's Balama", "state": "Sourced", "src": "nsenergybusiness / mozambiqueexpert" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "FID 2025-2026 (pending financing + security) -> construction -> production; timeline contingent on Cabo Delgado security", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Junior + Chinese cornerstone (Yulong); 2018 Chinese binding offtakes; Moz govt 10%; financing to be arranged", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "High-purity graphite with binding (if dated) offtake — but Cabo Delgado security and unclosed financing dominate the risk picture", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "High-purity large-flake graphite with a completed/updated DFS, mining concession, env approval and IRR 37% / 3.7yr payback / 27yr life economics, near Pemba port; but it sits in CABO DELGADO — an active ISIS-linked insurgency zone where the site was attacked in June 2022 (two staff killed) and 2024 unrest displaced ~67,000 — financing is not secured (FID 2025-2026), the binding offtakes are 2018-vintage Chinese contracts needing reconfirmation, and there is a Chinese cornerstone backer (Yulong)", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "HARD (Cabo Delgado insurgency)", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination.", "china_exposure": { "state": "Sourced", "value": "Shandong Yulong is Triton's ~36% largest shareholder and is acquiring 70% of the Mozambique graphite assets (incl. Ancuabe) under a 2025 share-sale agreement that the Yulong subsidiary breached on payment, then settled conditionally (Sep 2025, ~half paid; held-for-sale).", "dfc_sensitive": true, "basis": "Triton Minerals (ASX:TON) filings + ASX announcements 2024-25: SSAP for 70% of the Mozambique graphite assets, NQM/Yulong payment breach Feb 2025, WA Supreme Court writ Apr 2025, Deed of Settlement/Variation Sep 2025 (conditional). Substantial Chinese ownership/influence; DFC-sensitive regardless of completion." } } }, { "id": "zandkopsdrift", "dfi_stage": "Updated PFS (2025) + DFS commenced (Feb 2026, CPs satisfied Sep 2025, completion H1-2027); FULLY PERMITTED (mining right + environmental authorisation); first production targeted 2030", "sponsor": { "value": "Frontier Rare Earths Ltd (Luxembourg-registered); strategic partners: IDC (South Africa, US$20m equity for the DFS), Carester (France, separation tech + offtake), Komir (South Korea, govt-linked, holds a stake)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Western/allied + SA-DFI partner structure; Frontier listing status not confirmed (treated as unlisted)." }, "sponsor_type": "developer with a DFI (IDC) + allied strategic partners", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "DFS financed by IDC (South Africa) US$20m equity; multiple EU funding pathways under evaluation (RESourceEU / EU-SA Clean Trade Partnership); construction financing toward 2030 production", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "DFS DFI-financed (IDC); construction financing + EU pathways ahead" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "DFS-stage; construction capex to be firmed in the DFS (completion H1-2027)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "IDC (Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa) — US$20m equity investment to finance the DFS (Feb 2026); EU Strategic Project (Critical Raw Materials Act) with EU funding pathways under evaluation", "state": "Sourced", "src": "prnewswire / engineeringnews", "basis": "IDC South Africa is a DFI — an actual DFI engagement; plus EU strategic-project funding pathways." }, "offtake": { "value": "Binding strategic technology + 7-year MHREC offtake agreement with Carester (processed at Lacq, France); IDC option for up to 10% offtake (for SA downstream)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "prnewswire / engineeringnews", "basis": "Carester 7-yr MHREC offtake is a binding strategic agreement." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PFS-complete (2025) + DFS underway (H1-2027) + fully permitted; IDC equity + Carester offtake + EU strategic-project status; first production 2030", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical minerals (magnet rare earths Nd/Pr/Dy/Tb + battery-grade manganese)", "development_impact": { "value": "Magnet-REE + battery-manganese supply-chain diversification (non-China); EU Strategic Project (~17% of projected EU magnet-REE demand by 2030); SA downstream option via IDC; Northern Cape jobs", "state": "Sourced", "src": "miningsee / engineeringnews" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "DFS completion H1-2027 -> mine development -> first production 2030 (a long runway, but fully permitted with infrastructure planning complete)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "IDC (SA DFI) equity + Carester (France) tech/offtake + Komir (S.Korea) stake + EU strategic-project funding pathways; toward construction financing for 2030", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Textbook DFI/critical-minerals fit — IDC-backed, EU-strategic, non-China magnet-REE + battery-manganese, low-cost (Mn by-product covers ~90% of REE cost)", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "One of the strongest critical-minerals fits in the screen — DFI-anchored (IDC US$20m), EU Strategic Project, fully permitted, post-tax NPV10 US$2.0bn / IRR 28% (34% geared) / 72% margin, lowest-cost magnet REE outside China with battery-manganese covering ~90% of REE production cost, binding Carester offtake, >45yr reserve; the only real caveats are stage (PFS-complete, DFS to H1-2027) and a long runway to first production in 2030", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "kandiole", "dfi_stage": "PEA (effective Feb 2026; Technical Report filed Apr 2026) + Environmental Permit GRANTED (2023); mining-lease application the penultimate step — PEA-stage (pre-DFS)", "sponsor": { "value": "Roscan Gold Corp (TSX-V:ROS, FSE:2OJ, OTCQB:RCGCF), 100% (nine permits, 402 km2, Kayes Region, W Mali); a developer with no producing assets; contiguous to B2Gold's Fekola (NOT B2Gold-owned)", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Roscan 100%; adjacent to Fekola but not B2Gold's asset." }, "sponsor_type": "junior developer (no producing assets)", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "Initial capital US$218.7m; Roscan has no producing assets; financing discussions to start 2026", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Capex US$218.7m; junior; financing not arranged" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": 219, "state": "Sourced", "src": "Kandiole PEA initial capital US$218.7m" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "No DFI; junior; financing discussions to begin 2026" }, "offtake": { "value": "Gold dore -> spot market; ~92,786 oz/yr (first 4yr); AISC US$1,200/oz (first 4yr) -> US$1,568/oz LOM", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Roscan / Ecofin", "basis": "Gold doré spot-liquid." }, "funding_status": { "value": "PEA-complete + env permit granted; mining lease + DFS + financing ahead (targeted 2026)", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "precious (gold) — neutral/safe-haven commodity", "development_impact": { "value": "Adds to Mali's gold sector (76.5% of exports, 9.2% of GDP, 2022 EITI); jobs; Mali 2023 mining-code state participation (up to ~30-35%)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "Ecofin / ornoirafrica" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Mining lease (2026) + DFS + financing -> construction; multi-year to production", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Junior-led; financing discussions from 2026; Mali 2023 mining-code state participation applies", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Bankable junior gold in a high-gold-output but junta-governed jurisdiction — DFI/PRI relevance is higher here given Mali political risk", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Fresh (Feb-2026) PEA — after-tax NPV5% US$498m / IRR 43% / 2.8yr payback @US$3,100/oz, capex US$218.7m, ~835koz over ~13yr, env permit granted, mining lease in sight, on a prolific belt next to B2Gold's Fekola; but PEA-level (DFS to come; PEA leans on Inferred resources), LOW grade (0.68 g/t Indicated), construction financing not arranged, and Mali's military-junta governance + 2023 resource-nationalist mining code (state participation up to ~30-35%) place it at elevated risk", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "C", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "precious", "jurisdiction_risk": "ELEVATED", "mandate_fit": [ "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Early-stage (PEA/scoping), major self-funded (low DFI additionality), or carrying a hard jurisdiction/security flag — not DFI-actionable now.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } }, { "id": "steenkampskraal", "dfi_stage": "CONSTRUCTION-stage — Phase-1 concentration plant under construction (soil-turning Apr 2026; commissioning Aug 2026; first monazite concentrate before end-2026); out of care-and-maintenance (2023/24) with NNR + DMPR approvals", "sponsor": { "value": "Steenkampskraal Monazite Mine (SMM); Steenkampskraal Holdings + Bora Mining Investments (Dr Enock Mathebula) + Steenkampskraal Worker's Trust; private entity; IDC (SA DFI) full Phase-1 funding; Mintek/Necsa partners", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "Private SA entity; IDC-funded; broad-based Worker's Trust." }, "sponsor_type": "private developer with a DFI (IDC) fully funding Phase 1", "dfi_capital_need": { "value": "IDC (South Africa) providing FULL Phase-1 funding in four tranches (first tranche received); ~ZAR1bn already sunk (Anglo-era legacy infrastructure); phased value-chain build thereafter", "state": "Sourced", "basis": "DFI (IDC) fully funding Phase 1; phased capital build" }, "capital_required_usd_m": { "value": null, "state": "Absent", "basis": "Phased value-chain strategy; no single FS capex (IDC funds Phase-1 plant in tranches)" }, "dfis_ecas": { "value": "IDC (Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa) — FULL funding of the Phase-1 metallurgical/concentration plant (four tranches); strategic investors in due diligence", "state": "Sourced", "src": "esi-africa / africanminingmarket", "basis": "IDC South Africa is a DFI fully funding Phase 1 — a clear DFI engagement (3rd IDC-backed asset in the screen)." }, "offtake": { "value": "Monazite concentrate (>50% TREO) -> international buyers; offtake discussions advanced (international partners) but NOT yet binding", "state": "Sourced", "src": "steenkampskraal / rareearthexchanges", "basis": "Offtake discussions advanced, not binding." }, "funding_status": { "value": "Construction underway (IDC-funded Phase 1); commissioning Aug 2026; first concentrate before end-2026; phased value-chain to follow", "state": "Sourced" }, "commodity_class": "critical minerals (magnet rare earths NdPr/Dy/Tb + thorium; medical-isotope by-product)", "development_impact": { "value": "One of one of the world's highest-grade REE depositss; SA beneficiation/processing-hub strategy (Mintek/Necsa); non-China magnet REE; jobs + downstream; Ra-228 medical isotopes (Thor Medical)", "state": "Sourced", "src": "esi-africa / africannewsagency" }, "time_to_cashflow": { "value": "Phase-1 commissioning Aug 2026 -> first monazite concentrate before end-2026 (near-term first revenue)", "state": "Sourced" }, "deal_structure": { "value": "Private (Holdings + Bora + Worker's Trust) with IDC full Phase-1 funding; phased value-chain (concentrate -> cracking/MREC+thorium -> separation/oxides)", "state": "Sourced" }, "dfi_mandate": { "value": "Strong DFI/critical-minerals fit — IDC-funded, world's highest-grade REE, SA beneficiation strategy; the unproven part is commercial-scale separation", "state": "Derived" }, "committee_grade": { "value": "Construction-stage and DFI-funded (IDC full Phase-1) on one of the world's highest-grade REE+thorium deposits (RoM ~14.4% TREO; concentrate >50% TREO; NdPr/Dy/Tb-rich), with NNR+DMPR approvals, ~ZAR1bn sunk, near-term first concentrate (end-2026) and a SA beneficiation/processing-hub strategy (Mintek/Necsa); the honest caveats are that it is private (not listed), the phased plan has no single FS NPV, offtake is advanced-but-not-binding, commercial-scale separation/recovery is still unproven, and the ore carries thorium (NNR-regulated)", "state": "Derived" }, "shortlist": { "state": "Derived", "tier": "B", "stage_class": "see dfi_stage", "commodity_frame": "green_transition", "jurisdiction_risk": "MODERATE", "mandate_fit": [ "DFC", "IFC", "AfDB", "AFC", "Afreximbank" ], "rationale": "Near-bankable (PFS->DFS in progress), DFI-engaged but largely financed, commercially-financed with limited DFI gap, or bankable in an elevated-risk jurisdiction — conditional / near-term.", "basis": "Afrimintel cross-gate synthesis (Derived): tier from study-stage x financing-gap x jurisdiction-risk across the 7 DFI gates; mandate_fit is published-mandate geography+sector fit, NOT an engagement claim or any institution’s eligibility determination." } } ], "dfi_pattern_note": "Observed pattern (Sourced): African multilaterals (AFC / Afreximbank) finance development-stage GOLD and potash (Baomahun close Dec 2025; Colluli historically); Western DFIs/ECAs (US DFC / IFC / EXIM / JOGMEC) engage on CRITICAL MINERALS (Kabanga Ni, Ngualla REE). Commodity class is therefore a proxy for WHICH DFI family is the realistic counterpart.", "additionality_caveat": "'DFI capital need' reflects funding/balance-sheet status, NOT counterfactual additionality. A well-capitalised sponsor declining DFI is not the same as an asset lacking development additionality, which requires a deal-specific counterfactual assessment.", "excluded_assets": [ { "id": "manono", "name": "Manono (Li, DRC)", "reason": "Active arbitration over tenure — excluded from financeable pipeline until resolved; disputed-tenure cohort tracked separately", "state": "Excluded" } ], "risk_band_state_note": "time-to-cashflow risk band (LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH) is state=Derived: a qualitative editorial judgment from Sourced stage/ownership/jurisdiction events, no numeric rubric (v2.56.2 — corrects prior Sourced mislabel)." }