{
 "name": "Afrimintel scenario operating-margin sensitivity",
 "feed_version": "1.0.0",
 "dataset_version": "v2.53.0",
 "as_of": "2026-06-25",
 "note": "Indicative GROSS operating margin under Sourced spot/down/up commodity-price cases. This is (price − cash cost) × output on a 100% PROJECT BASIS — it is NOT free cash flow, NOT after-royalty/tax, and NOT attributable to any single owner. Copper uses C1 (excludes sustaining capital, royalties and tax); gold uses AISC (includes sustaining but still pre-royalty/tax). The 'spot' case uses current price, which for copper and gold is near cyclical highs — through-cycle margin is lower. A DFI underwriter must apply royalty, tax, sustaining/growth capital and attributable-ownership haircuts to reach distributable cash. Provided as an operating-leverage indicator, not a returns figure. Development assets show Sourced study NPV + demand direction; quantified scenario NPV Pending where the cash-flow schedule isn't public. Transparent — every price case and cost is named-sourced; nothing invented.",
 "quality_standard": "Sourced inputs / Derived arithmetic (gross margin, 100% basis) / Pending where the model is not public",
 "assets": [
  {
   "id": "kamoa-kakula",
   "type": "producer",
   "metal": "Cu",
   "method": "Derived: Sourced volume (385.8kt 2025) × (Sourced scenario price − Sourced unit cost). 386kt/yr × ($/lb − C1 (gross — excl. sustaining/royalties) $2.8/lb).",
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "$/lb",
    "down": 5.0,
    "base": 6.0,
    "up": 8.0,
    "basis": "spot ~$6.00/lb (~US$13,300/t LME, 25 Jun 2026; down ~6% MoM, off Jan-2026 record ~$14,500/t); down = 2024-25 levels; up = IEA deficit-by-2035 thesis"
   },
   "caveat": "GROSS operating margin, 100% project basis — before royalties, tax, sustaining/growth capital; not free cash flow, not attributable. Copper = price − C1 (least conservative); gold = price − AISC. 'Spot' is near cyclical highs.",
   "scenario_gross_margin_usd_m_100pct": {
    "spot": 2723,
    "down": 1872,
    "up": 4425,
    "state": "Derived"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "kansanshi",
   "type": "producer",
   "metal": "Cu",
   "method": "Derived: Sourced volume (~280kt/yr post-S3) × (Sourced scenario price − Sourced unit cost). 280kt/yr × ($/lb − C1 (gross) $1.34/lb).",
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "$/lb",
    "down": 5.0,
    "base": 6.0,
    "up": 8.0,
    "basis": "spot ~$6.00/lb (~US$13,300/t LME, 25 Jun 2026; down ~6% MoM, off Jan-2026 record ~$14,500/t); down = 2024-25 levels; up = IEA deficit-by-2035 thesis"
   },
   "caveat": "GROSS operating margin, 100% project basis — before royalties, tax, sustaining/growth capital; not free cash flow, not attributable. Copper = price − C1 (least conservative); gold = price − AISC. 'Spot' is near cyclical highs.",
   "scenario_gross_margin_usd_m_100pct": {
    "spot": 2877,
    "down": 2259,
    "up": 4111,
    "state": "Derived"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "sentinel",
   "type": "producer",
   "metal": "Cu",
   "method": "Derived: Sourced volume (231kt 2024) × (Sourced scenario price − Sourced unit cost). 231kt/yr × ($/lb − C1 (gross, FQM group) $1.34/lb).",
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "$/lb",
    "down": 5.0,
    "base": 6.0,
    "up": 8.0,
    "basis": "spot ~$6.00/lb (~US$13,300/t LME, 25 Jun 2026; down ~6% MoM, off Jan-2026 record ~$14,500/t); down = 2024-25 levels; up = IEA deficit-by-2035 thesis"
   },
   "caveat": "GROSS operating margin, 100% project basis — before royalties, tax, sustaining/growth capital; not free cash flow, not attributable. Copper = price − C1 (least conservative); gold = price − AISC. 'Spot' is near cyclical highs.",
   "scenario_gross_margin_usd_m_100pct": {
    "spot": 2373,
    "down": 1864,
    "up": 3392,
    "state": "Derived"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "obuasi",
   "type": "producer",
   "metal": "Au",
   "method": "Derived: Sourced volume (266koz 2025) × (Sourced scenario price − Sourced unit cost). 266koz/yr × ($/oz − AISC (net of sustaining) $1881/oz).",
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "$/oz",
    "down": 3500,
    "base": 4000,
    "up": 6000,
    "basis": "spot ~$4,000/oz (25 Jun 2026; down ~11% MoM and ~20% off Jan-2026 record ~$5,602 on Fed-hike repricing); central-bank buying (~850-863t 2025) is the structural support; up = 2026 bank targets"
   },
   "caveat": "GROSS operating margin, 100% project basis — before royalties, tax, sustaining/growth capital; not free cash flow, not attributable. Copper = price − C1 (least conservative); gold = price − AISC. 'Spot' is near cyclical highs.",
   "scenario_gross_margin_usd_m_100pct": {
    "spot": 564,
    "down": 431,
    "up": 1096,
    "state": "Derived"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "sukari-au",
   "type": "producer",
   "metal": "Au",
   "method": "Derived: Sourced volume (500koz 2025) × (Sourced scenario price − Sourced unit cost). 500koz/yr × ($/oz − AISC $1881/oz).",
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "$/oz",
    "down": 3500,
    "base": 4000,
    "up": 6000,
    "basis": "spot ~$4,000/oz (25 Jun 2026; down ~11% MoM and ~20% off Jan-2026 record ~$5,602 on Fed-hike repricing); central-bank buying (~850-863t 2025) is the structural support; up = 2026 bank targets"
   },
   "caveat": "GROSS operating margin, 100% project basis — before royalties, tax, sustaining/growth capital; not free cash flow, not attributable. Copper = price − C1 (least conservative); gold = price − AISC. 'Spot' is near cyclical highs.",
   "scenario_gross_margin_usd_m_100pct": {
    "spot": 1060,
    "down": 810,
    "up": 2060,
    "state": "Derived"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "south-deep",
   "type": "producer",
   "metal": "Au",
   "method": "Derived: Sourced volume (280-305koz 2025 guidance (mid)) × (Sourced scenario price − Sourced unit cost). 290koz/yr × ($/oz − AIC $1737/oz).",
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "$/oz",
    "down": 3500,
    "base": 4000,
    "up": 6000,
    "basis": "spot ~$4,000/oz (25 Jun 2026; down ~11% MoM and ~20% off Jan-2026 record ~$5,602 on Fed-hike repricing); central-bank buying (~850-863t 2025) is the structural support; up = 2026 bank targets"
   },
   "caveat": "GROSS operating margin, 100% project basis — before royalties, tax, sustaining/growth capital; not free cash flow, not attributable. Copper = price − C1 (least conservative); gold = price − AISC. 'Spot' is near cyclical highs.",
   "scenario_gross_margin_usd_m_100pct": {
    "spot": 656,
    "down": 511,
    "up": 1236,
    "state": "Derived"
   }
  },
  {
   "id": "tenke-fungurume",
   "type": "producer",
   "scenario_annual_cash_margin_usd_m": {
    "state": "Pending"
   },
   "method": "cost group-only (CMOC) — Pending"
  },
  {
   "id": "khoemacau-z5",
   "type": "producer",
   "scenario_annual_cash_margin_usd_m": {
    "state": "Pending"
   },
   "method": "ramp cost not disclosed — Pending"
  },
  {
   "id": "ngualla-ree",
   "type": "development",
   "metal": "REE",
   "base_npv_usd_m": {
    "value": 1350,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "Peak BFS Oct 2022 @ NdPr $231.88/kg",
    "more_recent": "2023 FEED base-case NPV8 US$982m @ lower pricing"
   },
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "directional",
    "down": null,
    "base": null,
    "up": null,
    "basis": "NdPr ~$110/kg; policy/export-control sensitive; security premium = upside"
   },
   "scenario_npv": {
    "state": "Pending",
    "note": "BFS $1.35bn @ NdPr $232/kg; FEED 2023 $982m @ lower pricing; current NdPr ~$110/kg sits below both decks. Quantified scenario NPV at current pricing not captured — directional read: realisable value materially below headline."
   },
   "method": "Base NPV is Sourced study output. Scenario re-pricing requires the study's full cash-flow schedule (price/cost split), not publicly disclosed in full → quantified scenario NPV honestly Pending; demand-direction shown."
  },
  {
   "id": "manono-lithium-district",
   "type": "development",
   "metal": "Li",
   "base_npv_usd_m": {
    "value": 1028,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "AVZ DFS Apr 2020 (NPV10, contested)"
   },
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "directional",
    "down": null,
    "base": null,
    "up": null,
    "basis": "spodumene >80% off 2023 peak (current = downside); IEA 2030s deficit = upside"
   },
   "scenario_npv": {
    "state": "Pending",
    "note": "Study reports a price-sensitivity table (NPV vs commodity price); the quantified scenario NPVs are not captured this pass. Directional read: near term oversupply then deficit."
   },
   "method": "Base NPV is Sourced study output. Scenario re-pricing requires the study's full cash-flow schedule (price/cost split), not publicly disclosed in full → quantified scenario NPV honestly Pending; demand-direction shown."
  },
  {
   "id": "motheo",
   "type": "development",
   "metal": "Cu",
   "base_npv_usd_m": {
    "value": 206,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "Sandfire study"
   },
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "$/lb",
    "down": 5.0,
    "base": 6.5,
    "up": 8.0,
    "basis": "base ~current ($6.58/lb = $14,500/t Jan 2026); up = IEA ~30% deficit-by-2035 thesis; down = pre-2025 levels"
   },
   "scenario_npv": {
    "state": "Pending",
    "note": "Study reports a price-sensitivity table (NPV vs commodity price); the quantified scenario NPVs are not captured this pass. Directional read: structural deficit."
   },
   "method": "Base NPV is Sourced study output. Scenario re-pricing requires the study's full cash-flow schedule (price/cost split), not publicly disclosed in full → quantified scenario NPV honestly Pending; demand-direction shown."
  },
  {
   "id": "balama-graphite",
   "type": "development",
   "metal": "Graphite",
   "base_npv_usd_m": {
    "value": 1125,
    "state": "Sourced",
    "source": "Syrah/Balama study"
   },
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "directional",
    "down": null,
    "base": null,
    "up": null,
    "basis": "flake soft 2024 (downside); anode demand 2x by 2040 = upside"
   },
   "scenario_npv": {
    "state": "Pending",
    "note": "Study reports a price-sensitivity table (NPV vs commodity price); the quantified scenario NPVs are not captured this pass. Directional read: balanced concentrated."
   },
   "method": "Base NPV is Sourced study output. Scenario re-pricing requires the study's full cash-flow schedule (price/cost split), not publicly disclosed in full → quantified scenario NPV honestly Pending; demand-direction shown."
  },
  {
   "id": "colluli-potash",
   "type": "development",
   "metal": "Potash",
   "base_npv_usd_m": {
    "value": null,
    "state": "Pending",
    "source": "Danakali DFS 2015 (stale)"
   },
   "price_cases": {
    "unit": "directional",
    "down": null,
    "base": null,
    "up": null,
    "basis": "MOP ~$488/t Mar 2026, SOP premium; food-security demand steady"
   },
   "scenario_npv": {
    "state": "Pending",
    "note": "Study reports a price-sensitivity table (NPV vs commodity price); the quantified scenario NPVs are not captured this pass. Directional read: steady growth."
   },
   "method": "Base NPV is Sourced study output. Scenario re-pricing requires the study's full cash-flow schedule (price/cost split), not publicly disclosed in full → quantified scenario NPV honestly Pending; demand-direction shown."
  }
 ],
 "price_snapshot_note": "Price cases captured 25 Jun 2026. Commodity prices move materially week to week — the site's live commodity ticker is the current reference. This margin layer is a DATED SNAPSHOT, not a live feed; treat figures as as-captured."
}