Public-source divergence-publication on the seven highest-stakes screening metrics. Pre-vs-post-31-March-2026 compression divergence shape.
| Metric | 2020 DFS / 2022 baseline | 2023 IDP | 31 Mar 2026 NI 43-101 | Most-defensible reading per screening question | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probable Reserve (P+P) tonnage | — | 472 Mt @ 3.94% Cu (Dec 2022) | 466 Mt @ 2.82% Cu (effective 31 Dec 2025) | 466 Mt P+P (most-recent NI 43-101) | HIGH |
| Contained Cu in reserves | — | ~18.6 Mt Cu | ~13.1 Mt Cu | 13.1 Mt Cu (~30% reduction; most-recent NI 43-101) | HIGH |
| Mine life (years) | — | 33 years (2023 PFS at 19.2 Mtpa; Ivanhoe, 30 Jan 2023) | ~25 years (Ivanhoe, per the 31 Mar 2026 report) | ~25 years (Ivanhoe) | HIGH |
| Annual production guidance | — | 2023 IDP run-rate ramp | 2026 290-310 kt (tightened 29 Jul 2026 from 290-330 kt set 31 Mar 2026); 2027 380-420 kt; 2028+ >500 kt (per Ivanhoe releases of 31 Mar and 29 Jul 2026) | 290-310 kt 2026 (operator current-year guidance, tightened 29 Jul 2026) | HIGH |
| CAPEX (per-phase) | — | Phase 3 $3.04bn + Phase 4 $1.55bn (6 March 2023 IDP) | Annual capex guidance 2026 $1.10-1.40bn; 2027 $750-950m | 2023 IDP per-phase as 2023-vintage; March 2027 Optimised FS pending | MEDIUM |
| NPV anchors | $5.5bn / $6.6bn (Kakula DFS) | $11.1bn / $19.1bn / $20.2bn (PFS anchors) | Not separately disclosed; pending Optimised FS March 2027 | 2023 IDP anchors as 2023-vintage; re-anchor pending Optimised FS | LOW |
| C1 cash cost ($/lb) | $0.48/lb first-5-yr (DFS-stated literal) | $1.06/lb LoM cycle-2 reference reconciling cost (vol-matched basis) | Operator-disclosed in Ivanhoe FY disclosures | Operator-disclosed C1 in Ivanhoe FY disclosures (post-compression) | MEDIUM |
Confidence convention: HIGH = most-recent NI 43-101 primary source with explicit publication date and preparer attribution; MEDIUM = most-recent primary source available but pending Optimised FS update; LOW = pre-compression vintage anchors that the post-compression NI 43-101 has not yet replaced.
| Source | Value | Date | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 2022 Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Statement (Ivanhoe) | 472 Mt P+P | December 2022 | Pre-compression baseline |
| 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 "Kamoa-Kakula Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Technical Report" | 466 Mt P+P | Effective 31 December 2025; released 31 March 2026 | Prepared by AMC Mining Consultants South Africa + MSA Group |
The 6 Mt reserve-tonnage reduction is small in absolute terms; the 25-30% contained-Cu reduction is driven by grade compression (3.94% → 2.82% Cu), not tonnage. Most-defensible reading per the screening question: 466 Mt P+P at 2.82% Cu, applied with explicit recognition that the reserve grade compression rather than the tonnage is what materially affected the contained-Cu economics.
| Source | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|
| December 2022 baseline | 472 Mt × 3.94% Cu | ~18.6 Mt Cu contained |
| 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 | 466 Mt × 2.82% Cu | ~13.1 Mt Cu contained |
| Reduction | (18.6 - 13.1) / 18.6 | ~29.6% reduction |
The 30% contained-Cu reduction reflects May 2025 seismic event impact on Eastern Kakula, Kakula 2.0 mine plan revision, pillar-width adjustments, and depletion. Track Record entry 2.1 documents the platform's pre-31-March-2026 directional position on this compression. The compression is material but does not invalidate operating-asset economics; it requires LoM NPV re-anchoring rather than near-term-cash-flow re-pricing.
| Source | Value |
|---|---|
| 2023 PFS (Ivanhoe, 30 Jan 2023) | 33 years at 19.2 Mtpa |
| 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 | ~25 years (Ivanhoe) |
| March 2027 Optimised 5-Year Feasibility Study (targeted) | Ivanhoe states an optimised FS covering at least the next five years, with a PFS on the remaining mine life |
Ivanhoe states an approximately 25-year life of mine under the 31 March 2026 report. The 2023 PFS stated a 33-year mine life at 19.2 Mtpa (Ivanhoe, 30 Jan 2023). Both are mine-plan lives, at different throughputs.
| Source | 2026 | 2027 | 2028+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivanhoe releases of 31 March and 29 July 2026 | 290-310 kt (tightened from 290-330 kt) | 380-420 kt | >500 kt annualised |
| 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 disclosure | Production guidance revised to 290-330 kt (2026) and 380-420 kt (2027); 2026 capital guidance $1.10-1.40bn, reconfirmed in Q2 2026 reporting | ||
Annual production guidance was cut with the 31 March 2026 restatement and tightened again on 29 July 2026; the platform's Kamoa-Kakula audit log documents the historic correction where the platform had used 2027's number (380-420) as 2026's guidance — corrected to 290-330 for 2026 with 380-420 as 2027. Institutional users running near-term-cash-flow DCF should anchor on 2026 guidance midpoint (310 kt); long-horizon DCF should incorporate 2027 ramp and 2028+ steady-state.
The 2023 Integrated Development Plan Technical Report (6 March 2023, OreWin et al.) remains the most recent NI 43-101 disclosure of per-phase total capex: Phase 3 $3.04bn + Phase 4 $1.55bn. The 31 March 2026 disclosure addressed reserves/resources, not per-phase capex; annual capex guidance of $1.10-1.40bn for 2026 and $750-950m for 2027 was reconfirmed in Q2 2026 reporting (Mining Weekly, August 2026). Ivanhoe states a study covering at least the next five years, with a PFS on the remaining mine life, expected about 12 months after 31 March 2026. The per-phase capex inputs are 2023-vintage citations; any cost-inflation contingency is a matter for the user's own judgment.
| Source | NPV anchor | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 Kakula DFS | $5.5bn | $3.10/lb Cu real; 110 Mt @ 5.22% Cu life-of-mine production scenario |
| 2020 Kakula DFS (higher Cu price) | $6.6bn | Higher Cu price assumption |
| 2023 IDP Phase 1+2 PFS | $11.1bn | Phase 1+2 incremental |
| 2023 IDP Phase 3 expansion | $19.1bn | Phase 3 incremental (separate from Phase 1+2) |
| 2023 IDP full PFS | $20.2bn | Full integrated PFS |
| 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 | Not separately disclosed | Pending Optimised 5-Year FS March 2027 |
The platform's DCF Test Battery is anchored to these 2023-vintage NPV figures. Cycle-2 reconciliation verified platform DCF tool convergence to within $0.0001/lb across C4.1 ($5.5bn) and C4.2 ($6.6bn) targets at vol-matched basis. The Optimised 5-Year FS March 2027 is expected to produce the post-compression NPV anchors that should replace the 2023-vintage figures for institutional-user DCF re-anchoring.
| Source | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 Kakula DFS literal | $0.48/lb | First-5-years cash cost (NOT life-of-mine constant) |
| Cycle-2 reference reconciling cost (vol-matched basis) | $1.06/lb | LoM-average input that brings modelled NPV to $5.5bn target with all other published inputs held constant; reference DCF with ramp-up + sustaining capex + depreciation tax shield |
| Operator-disclosed C1 (post-compression) | Refer Ivanhoe FY disclosures | Asset-level current cost basis |
The $0.48/lb DFS literal first-5-years cash cost is frequently misapplied as a LoM constant; cycle-1 results documents this disambiguation explicitly. Institutional users running DCF on Kamoa-Kakula post-compression should anchor on operator-disclosed C1 cash cost in current Ivanhoe FY disclosures rather than on the DFS literal; the platform's reference reconciling cost ($1.06/lb LoM at vol-matched basis) provides a structurally defensible LoM-average benchmark.