# Manono Lithium District — Disputed-Tenure Capital Allocation Brief

**Use-case dossier #2. Worked institutional analysis of a disputed-tenure world-class lithium deposit with multi-party claim structure, active ICSID arbitration, and overlay of US–China critical-minerals geopolitics.**

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**Document type:** Demonstration of Afrimintel decision-aid utility for capital allocators considering exposure to a disputed-tenure asset where the geological and economic case is exceptional but the operating-vehicle question is unresolved.

**Asset:** Manono Lithium District, Tanganyika Province, DRC
**Resource:** 842 Mt @ 1.61% Li₂O, 709 ppm Sn, 37 ppm Ta (M+I+I, AVZ Jan 2024 update — pre-dispute baseline; Roche Dure + Carrière de l'Este combined)
**Decision before the market:** Multiple parallel — Zijin/Cominière Manono Lithium SAS targeting June 2026 commissioning at the NE block; KoBold Metals (US, AI-driven, Bezos/Gates-backed) framework agreement May 2025 with the DRC government conditional on dispute resolution; CATH (China) January 2026 conditional funding to AVZ Minerals if AVZ claims succeed at ICSID; AVZ ICSID arbitration (Case No. ARB/23/20) active — the US-mediated suspension lapsed 23 June 2025 and AVZ resumed proceedings; competitive sale process for AVZ's interest in Manono active under cornerstone investor obligations.
**Date of brief:** 9 May 2026
**Editorial responsibility:** Nikesh Patel, Honorary Consul of Rwanda in Mauritius (nikesh@afrimintel.com)
**Methodology version:** Afrimintel platform v1.0.45, pipeline 23/23 PASS

**Counterparty disclosure.** Afrimintel has no commercial relationship with AVZ Minerals, Zijin Mining, Cominière, KoBold Metals, CATH, the Government of the DRC, the African Continental Free Trade Area Secretariat, or any current or prospective Manono claimant or counterparty. This brief is a self-produced demonstration of platform utility constructed entirely from public primary sources and Afrimintel's published data layer. No party named has reviewed, endorsed, or been informed of its production.

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## Decision-Ready Summary — 5-minute read

**Screening reading: HOLD for DFI debt; DFI-INELIGIBLE under disputed-tenure exclusion until ICSID resolution; sovereign-strategic and private-strategic capital already engaged under different frameworks.**

*Decision shape: Disputed tenure · Confidence: HIGH on geological case · HIGH on multi-claim contestation as fact · LOW on resolution timeline*

**Why DFI-ineligible currently:**

- Active ICSID arbitration (AVZ vs DRC); proceedings resumed 23 Jun 2025 after the US-mediated suspension lapsed (Case No. ARB/23/20); merits undecided
- Multi-claim contestation — Manono Lithium SAS (Zijin/Cominière) operating; AVZ contesting; Cominière compensation owed under prior framework
- Disputed-tenure exclusion explicit at IFC, AfDB, EIB, FMO, Proparco, CDC, BIO; implicit at DFC and EXIM under risk-of-loss provisions
- Sovereign-strategic capital ALREADY engaged: Zijin operating; CATH January 2026 conditional funding $20M with 100% production rights for 5 years contingent on AVZ-claim success
- Private-strategic capital ALREADY engaged: KoBold Metals May 2025 framework with AVZ, conditional on dispute resolution + state approval

**Three trigger pathways for DFI re-eligibility:**

1. **Pathway A — ICSID favourable to AVZ + DRC compliance.** Title clarity restores Kabanga-style screening pathways; full DFI mandate set becomes structurally available.
2. **Pathway B — Negotiated settlement.** DFI mandate-fit depends on settlement terms and residual operator structure (similar shape to Loulo-Gounkoto post-settlement).
3. **Pathway C — ICSID dismisses AVZ claim.** Manono Lithium SAS becomes definitive operator; DFI eligibility depends on each DFI's framework on sovereign-asserted-tenure outcomes (varies by institution).

**Most material public disclosures (recency):**

- April 2026 — ICSID partial decision (procedural; substantive implications continue to evolve)
- January 2026 — CATH conditional funding to AVZ ($20M; 100% production rights × 5 years + 30.5% indirect stake IF AVZ claims succeed)
- September 2024 — Manono Lithium SAS mining licence granted
- May 2025 — KoBold Metals framework with AVZ disclosed (conditional)

**Companion artefacts:** [Benchmark Spread](./benchmark-spread/) (7 metrics structured around contestation-driven divergence)

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## 1 — The decision being asked

A capital allocator — equity investor, debt provider, off-take partner, or strategic acquirer — considering exposure to the Manono lithium district faces a decision of the following structure: *"In a deposit that is among the world's largest hard-rock lithium resources at 842 Mt @ 1.61% Li₂O, where multiple parallel parties hold or claim rights — and where any path to commercial production requires either resolution of an active ICSID arbitration, formal completion of state-mediated transfers, or both — what is the defensible exposure pathway, at what discount to a clean-tenure equivalent, and against what trigger conditions for entry, exit, or escalation?"*

The decision is unusual because the geological and metallurgical case is exceptional and well-established; the contested element is the legal-governance vehicle through which the deposit is monetised. This separates Manono from screening exercises where the geology itself carries uncertainty.

This brief addresses **the eight questions a capital committee will ask** when considering a disputed-tenure asset, and shows what Afrimintel surfaces in 30–60 minutes of platform interaction.

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## 2 — The eight questions, and what Afrimintel surfaces

### Q1 — Is the underlying geological case verified independently of the legal dispute?

**What Afrimintel surfaces:**

- **Resource baseline:** 842 Mt @ 1.61% Li₂O, 709 ppm Sn, 37 ppm Ta (M+I+I) per AVZ Minerals January 2024 update. Combines Roche Dure and Carrière de l'Este orebodies. Pre-dispute baseline — i.e., the resource estimate predates the licence revocation cycle and is not itself contested. Drillhole intercepts include pegmatite at 1.65% Li₂O over hundreds of metres (AVZ NI 43-101 2021) verified across the platform's data layer.
- **Geological context:** Manono is a Mesoproterozoic LCT (Lithium-Caesium-Tantalum) pegmatite within the Kibara Belt, geologically continuous with the same belt that hosts Rwanda's tin-tantalum mines and parts of southern Burundi. The platform's province profile (Congo Craton — and the cross-border Karagwe-Ankole / Kibara extension into Rwanda) surfaces this regional context. The same Kibara LCT belt hosts a discovery-stage LCT pegmatite find in Rwanda's Southern Province (Aterian/Eastinco–Rio Tinto–Kinunga JV; drilling since Sep 2024, no Mineral Resource declared) — the belt is geologically continuous across the DRC–Rwanda–Burundi tri-border.
- **Comparable scale:** Ranks among the world's largest hard-rock lithium deposits; specific peer-set positioning requires Wood Mackenzie / S&P Capital IQ for global scale benchmarking (Greenbushes, Pilgangoora, Wodgina), which sit outside Afrimintel's Africa-focused scope.

The underlying geology is not the constraining variable. The deposit case is intact across all parallel claims.

### Q2 — What exactly is the claim structure as of the brief date?

**What Afrimintel surfaces:**

The Manono deposit is split across parallel claim structures, each at a different stage:

| Claim | Vehicle | Stage | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manono Northeast Lithium Project | Manono Lithium SAS (Zijin/Jinxiang ~54.9% per Zijin disclosure; Reuters reports 61% Zijin / 39% Cominière at JV level — basis varies by source layer) | Construction | Mining licence secured Sept 2024; June 2026 commissioning target |
| Manono South — legacy Dathcom-AVZ claim | AVZ Minerals via Dathcom Mining | Arbitration | ICSID arbitration (ARB/23/20); US-mediated suspension lapsed 23 Jun 2025, proceedings resumed; March 2026 DRC cancellation of the Manono extension permit; merits undecided |
| KoBold framework (May 2025) | KoBold Metals, US, AI-driven, Bezos/Gates-backed | Framework | Conditional on dispute resolution + state approval |
| CATH conditional funding (Jan 2026) | CATH (China; CATL-related/affiliated) | Conditional | $20M to AVZ + rights to 100% production for 5 years + 30.5% indirect stake IF AVZ claims succeed |

Each of these is a real, live, dated position recorded in the platform's data layer, with the verifiable status flag `dispute_status: "multi_claim_active_arbitration"`. The data layer carries operator-level disclosures and the conditional language attached to each.

### Q3 — What is the most current procedural state of the ICSID arbitration?

**What Afrimintel surfaces:**

- **2022:** DRC Mining Ministry revoked the Manono permit (PR13359) on grounds of insufficient project advancement.
- **2023:** Rights reassigned to a unit of Zijin Mining (subsequently the basis for the Manono Lithium SAS structure).
- **January 2024:** ICSID tribunal issued interim orders requiring DRC to recognise Dathcom Mining as licence holder and to protect AVZ's rights pending arbitration.
- **May 2025:** AVZ–DRC framework agreement announced. AVZ committed to suspending ICSID arbitration; KoBold conditional framework with DRC government to acquire AVZ's southern Manono interest (~$1bn framework). Rights subject to AVZ relinquishing claims.
- **June 2025:** Suspension lapsed without DRC engagement during suspension period; AVZ resumed ICSID proceedings.
- **July 2025:** AVZ filed claims with International Court of Arbitration (ICC) and ICSID, asserting that the DRC–KoBold agreement violated the January 2024 ICSID interim orders.
- **May–June 2025:** AVZ temporarily suspended ICSID proceedings under US-mediated settlement encouragement; the suspension lapsed 23 June 2025 with no DRC engagement, and AVZ resumed the arbitration.
- **April 2026:** ICSID tribunal issued a **partial decision favourable to DRC** and lifted the earlier interim measures requiring recognition of AVZ rights. AVZ position legally weakened.

The platform's daily watchlist flags Manono as a high-priority asset to monitor for ICSID substantive rulings; proceedings resumed 23 Jun 2025 (Case No. ARB/23/20) and the merits are undecided.

### Q4 — What is the country-risk overlay specific to disputed-tenure exposure?

**What Afrimintel surfaces:**

DRC carries a **published editorial override** in the platform's Country Risk Composite. The composite mathematics — Fraser IAI 18.4 (verified Fraser 2024) + TI CPI 20 (verified TI CPI 2025) + NRGI RGI 35 (latest NRGI RGI 2021) + EITI member status — would mathematically push DRC into borderline-MEDIUM purely on the EITI 20% weighting. The editorial override forces DRC to **HIGH** because:

(a) DRC ranked 50th of 68 jurisdictions in Fraser 2025 (exact score not yet in the platform's VERIFIED set);
(b) Professional consensus across DFI credit committees treats DRC as HIGH risk for project finance purposes;
(c) The override is recorded in the data layer with a comment, surfaced on the methodology page, and re-evaluated each monthly audit cycle.

**For disputed-tenure capital exposure specifically**, the platform's Country Risk Notes section surfaces:

- **AVZ Manono precedent itself** — flagged as the canonical example of "DRC CAMI cadastre cancellations: licence cancelled by CAMI 2022 despite $350M+ invested. JV partner dispute triggered government intervention." The platform records this explicitly as a HIGH-severity risk factor with mitigation guidance: *"Never enter DRC without a Congolese JV partner with government access. CAMI requires continuous engagement."*
- **March 2026 CAMI mass revocation** — DRC executed mass revocation of inactive exploration permits in March 2026, creating both acquisition opportunities and renewed regulatory uncertainty. Platform flags this as a structural shift since late 2024.
- **December 2025 Washington Accords** — US-DRC Strategic Partnership signed 4 December 2025, committing 50% of state-enterprise copper and 30% cobalt to flow west via Lobito corridor within 5 years. Constitutional challenge filed January 2026 by Congolese lawyers. The platform surfaces this as both upside (US backing for US-aligned operators, including KoBold) and risk (constitutional challenge unresolved).

### Q5 — What is the US–China geopolitical overlay?

**What Afrimintel surfaces:**

Manono sits at one of the most concentrated US–China critical-minerals contestation points on the African continent. The platform's data layer captures:

- **Chinese position:** Zijin Mining holds the operating Manono Lithium SAS NE structure with Cominière. Construction underway. June 2026 commissioning target. CATH (China; CATL-affiliated) holds January 2026 conditional funding to AVZ for AVZ claims via Manono South.
- **US position:** KoBold Metals (Breakthrough Energy Ventures-backed; AI-driven exploration) holds May 2025 framework with DRC for the southern portion. KoBold's broader strategic posture is Western critical-minerals supply-chain integration. The Washington Accords December 2025 framework explicitly favours US-aligned operators.
- **Implications for capital exposure:** Any party taking a position must assess (i) whether the Zijin operating vehicle's construction proceeds smoothly in a context of US strategic pressure to constrain Chinese critical-minerals control; (ii) whether the KoBold framework converts into operating control conditional on dispute resolution; (iii) whether the CATH-AVZ funding pathway provides a Chinese option to re-enter via the southern claim if KoBold framework stalls.

The platform does not opine on which geopolitical pathway prevails. It surfaces the structural facts, the dated commitments, and the conditional language attached to each — sufficient for a capital committee to construct probability-weighted scenarios with their own internal geopolitical view.

### Q6 — What are the trigger conditions for entry, exit, or escalation?

**What Afrimintel surfaces — the critical decision-aid output for a disputed-tenure asset:**

The platform structures the analysis as conditional pathways:

| Pathway | Trigger | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Zijin operating vehicle stabilises | Manono Lithium SAS reaches commissioning June 2026 without further disruption | Asset prices in a Chinese-controlled NE production stream; AVZ South claim becomes residual / settlement-only |
| AVZ–KoBold framework activates | a negotiated settlement is reached; KoBold framework converts to definitive | US-aligned southern Manono path opens; AVZ shareholders compensated; CATH option likely unwinds |
| ICSID resumption + AVZ favourable decision | arbitration (resumed 23 Jun 2025) yields an AVZ-favourable ICSID award | DRC faces compensation liability; AVZ recovery uncertain; CATH conditional funding triggers |
| ICSID resumption + DRC-favourable award (conditional pathway) | If a DRC-favourable final award issues | AVZ rights effectively extinguished; KoBold framework path becomes primary US-aligned route; CATH option unwinds |
| Status quo deadlock | None of the above; multi-year stasis | Geological asset stranded; no clean exposure pathway; all parties carry holding costs |

Each trigger is dated and flagged on the platform's daily watchlist. ICSID substantive rulings (arbitration resumed 23 Jun 2025; Case No. ARB/23/20) are the proximate signal; merits undecided as of mid-2026.

### Q7 — What is the defensible discount rate to clean-tenure equivalents?

**What Afrimintel does and does not do here:**

- **What the platform does:** Surfaces the dispute structure, dates, conditional language, and trigger conditions explicitly. Provides the auditable record that allows a capital committee to construct a probability-weighted discount.
- **What the platform does NOT do:** Assign the discount itself. The discount is institution-specific — it depends on the institution's mandate, its tolerance for ICSID-type arbitration timelines, its willingness to take Chinese-counterparty exposure, its US-policy alignment constraints, and its position on AVZ securityholder dynamics (AVZ is delisted in Australia following share suspensions May 2022).

A defensible institutional approach to the discount question: anchor the screening to a clean-tenure equivalent (a comparable Tier-1 hard-rock lithium asset with undisputed operator and stable jurisdiction — Greenbushes, Pilgangoora) and apply a probability-weighted haircut against the trigger conditions in Q6. The Afrimintel platform provides the trigger-condition framework; the haircut weighting is editorial.

### Q8 — What is the appropriate exposure structure if entry is justified?

This question is institution-specific. Afrimintel does not opine on appropriate exposure structures (debt vs equity, direct vs SPV, JV-with-Congolese-partner vs pure financial, structured vs vanilla). The platform surfaces:

- The platform's published HIGH-severity risk factor for DRC CAMI cadastre cancellations cites the AVZ Manono case itself as the canonical precedent — a sophisticated capital committee will already weight this heavily.
- The mitigation guidance recorded in the data layer ("Never enter DRC without a Congolese JV partner with government access. CAMI requires continuous engagement.") reflects the operational discipline that the precedent itself argues for.
- The platform's Country Risk Composite + DRC override + the published mitigation framework provide the screening floor; institutional capital committees layer their own structural exposure preferences over this floor.

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## 3 — What Afrimintel does NOT do

For a disputed-tenure asset, this brief does not predict ICSID arbitration outcomes, substitute for international arbitration counsel, provide US Treasury / OFAC sanctions screening, resolve the Australian securities-law overlay on AVZ (suspended May 2022, subsequently delisted), underwrite political risk insurance, or forecast lithium price scenarios. The platform records procedural status, dated filings, partial decisions, and trigger conditions. It does not predict final awards. International arbitration counsel, sanctions screening, securityholder-dynamics analysis, MIGA/DFC/AIG/Lloyd's PRI underwriting, and Wood Mackenzie / Benchmark Mineral Intelligence / Fastmarkets price forecasting are all separate institutional capabilities that remain with the engaging institution.

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## 4 — How this dossier complements the Kabanga brief

The Kabanga (Tanzania) Pre-FID Investment Brief and this Manono (DRC) Disputed-Tenure Brief are deliberately structured as complements:

| Dimension | Kabanga | Manono |
|---|---|---|
| Decision type | New-money pre-FID screening | Capital allocation against disputed tenure |
| Jurisdiction risk profile | LOW-MEDIUM (Tanzania composite) | HIGH (DRC with editorial override) |
| Operator clarity | Single, listed (NYSE: LZM) | Multi-claim, contested |
| Decision timing | Mid-2026 FID + financial close | active ICSID arbitration (resumed Jun 2025) + parallel pathways |
| Geopolitical overlay | Western government finance package (DFC, EXIM, JOGMEC) | US–China critical-minerals contestation |
| What the platform does | Surfaces operator economics, country risk, comparable analysis, stress-test framework | Surfaces dispute structure, trigger conditions, conditional pathways, country-risk override rationale |

The Kabanga brief shows the platform on a clean institutional screening. This Manono brief shows the platform on a fundamentally different decision architecture: where the legal-governance vehicle is the constraining variable, not the geology, and where the screening artefact's value lies in surfacing trigger conditions and conditional pathways with auditable provenance.

A platform that surfaces both with comparable rigour demonstrates depth across decision-type, not only across asset-type.

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## 5 — DFI mandate-fit overlay

For an institutional capital allocator, Manono presents a structurally distinct DFI mandate-fit reading from a typical greenfield-or-operating asset. DFIs generally cannot deploy into actively disputed tenure under their published policy frameworks (the disputed-tenure constraint is explicit at IFC, AfDB, EIB, FMO, Proparco, CDC, BIO; implicit at DFC and EXIM under risk-of-loss provisions). The DFI mandate-fit question for Manono is therefore not "what tranche structure could a DFI take" but "under what trigger conditions does Manono become DFI-eligible, and what would the eligible-mandate structure look like at that point."

### 5.1 Current DFI eligibility status — most paths blocked

| DFI institution category | Current eligibility | Blocking factor |
|---|---|---|
| Multilateral DFIs (AfDB, World Bank Group, EIB, EBRD) | NOT ELIGIBLE | Active multi-claim contestation; ICSID arbitration ongoing; legal-title clarity required by published procurement and risk frameworks |
| US bilateral DFIs (DFC, EXIM) | NOT ELIGIBLE under standard frameworks | Same legal-title clarity requirement; additional Trump-administration critical-minerals strategy may create exception pathways but no public framework currently authorises bypass |
| European bilateral DFIs (FMO, Proparco, CDC, BIO, KfW) | NOT ELIGIBLE | Disputed-tenure exclusion explicit in published frameworks |
| Japanese bilateral (JBIC-JOGMEC) | NOT ELIGIBLE | Disputed-tenure exclusion; offtake-linked alternative pathways possible only with title-clarity precedent |
| Strategic-sovereign vehicles (Saudi PIF, Mubadala, GIC, Temasek) | Different framework — not DFI but with similar risk frameworks | Most sovereign vehicles' published criteria exclude actively disputed assets |
| Private-sector strategic capital (CATH, KoBold, Zijin) | Already engaged in the dispute structure | Different category — not DFI |

### 5.2 Trigger conditions for DFI re-eligibility

Three trigger pathways could restore DFI eligibility, each with different DFI-mandate-fit profiles:

**Pathway A — ICSID final award favourable to AVZ + DRC compliance.** If the ICSID tribunal awards in favour of AVZ's claim and the DRC complies (full compliance is historically rare in extractives ICSID cases), the legal-title structure becomes definitively clarified at one specific operating-vehicle level. DFI mandate-fit at that point is similar to a Kabanga-style pre-FID screening — DFC, AfDB ECNR critical-minerals window, JOGMEC offtake-linked, EIB, and European bilateral DFIs all become structurally available. Tranche structure precedent reverts to the standard development-stage lithium playbook (similar to Pilbara Minerals project finance comparables in Australia, or Greenbushes precedent in Western Australia, adapted for DRC country-risk premium).

**Pathway B — Settlement between AVZ and DRC outside ICSID.** A negotiated settlement (potentially involving a payment by DRC to AVZ, a partial production allocation, or an alternative-asset-substitution structure) clarifies title without ICSID enforcement. DFI mandate-fit at that point depends on the settlement terms and the residual operator structure — DFIs would screen the resulting structure on its merits with country-risk premium for the dispute trajectory.

**Pathway C — Sovereign assertion of full DRC tenure, AVZ position dismissed.** If the ICSID tribunal rules against AVZ or AVZ withdraws its claim, the Manono Lithium SAS (Zijin/Cominière) operating structure becomes the definitive operator without title contestation. DFI mandate-fit at that point depends on the DFI's own framework on sovereign-asserted tenure outcomes (some DFIs consider these acceptable; others maintain higher scrutiny on cases where prior-claim-holders were dispossessed).

### 5.3 What a DFI investment officer would track in advance of trigger

| Trigger-monitoring item | What to track | Source |
|---|---|---|
| ICSID + regulatory developments | ICSID arbitration resumed 23 Jun 2025, tribunal substantive rulings pending; separately, CAMI cancelled the PR 4029 extension permit on 19 Mar 2026 for non-payment of surface rights (distinct from the core PR 13359 ICSID dispute) | ICSID public proceedings register; DRC Mining Registry (CAMI) |
| AVZ corporate trajectory | Securityholder dynamics; CATH January 2026 funding milestones; KoBold framework activation conditions | AVZ ASX disclosures, CATH and KoBold public statements |
| DRC government positioning | Statements from Ministry of Mines; framework-agreement amendments; presidential decrees on Manono area | DRC official gazettes; reputable media |
| US-China critical-minerals strategy | Trump-administration positioning shifts; KoBold-AVZ framework conditional triggers; DFC critical-minerals policy updates | DFC investment-story page; US Treasury OFAC; US State Department |
| Manono Lithium SAS operations | Construction milestones; Q2 2026 commissioning target; Zijin/Cominière JV-level operational reporting | Zijin (HKEX) investor disclosures; Reuters operational coverage |

The platform's daily watchlist (~25 signals, operationalised at <a href="/methodology/">/methodology/</a>) includes Manono trigger-monitoring items. Material developments are surfaced through the Audit Log within the platform's published correction-velocity SLA.

### 5.4 The distinct mandate-fit category — sovereign-strategic and private-strategic capital

Where DFIs are blocked by disputed tenure, two non-DFI institutional capital categories operate under different frameworks:

**Sovereign-strategic capital with critical-minerals mandate (e.g., Chinese state-affiliated through Zijin; CATH conditional funding structure).** Already engaged in Manono. Their frameworks explicitly accommodate or actively pursue contested-tenure positions where the geopolitical-strategic value justifies. Not the DFI category.

**Private-strategic capital with US-aligned critical-minerals positioning (e.g., KoBold framework with AVZ).** A separate category from DFIs but with similar capital-allocation discipline at the framework-screening level. KoBold's May 2025 framework with AVZ is conditional on dispute resolution + state approval — structurally similar to a DFI conditions-precedent structure even though KoBold is private-strategic capital.

A DFI investment officer reading Manono in May 2026 should recognise the asset is currently in a non-DFI capital-allocation phase. Re-eligibility tracking is the appropriate posture; speculative pre-positioning would breach standard DFI risk frameworks.

### 5.5 What this overlay does NOT do

This overlay is structural reading from public-source primary documents and DFI published policy frameworks. It does not predict ICSID outcomes; does not opine on the legal merits of any party's claim; does not assess sovereign credit on the DRC; does not produce political risk insurance underwriting analysis; does not substitute for international arbitration counsel, sanctions screening, or DFI internal credit memo work. The trigger pathways named in Section 5.2 are illustrative of the structural categories under which DFI eligibility could change; they do not predict which (if any) materialises or when.

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## 6 — Limitations honestly stated

**(a)** The April 2026 ICSID partial decision is a procedural development whose substantive implications continue to evolve. The platform records the partial decision as dated procedural fact; the implications for AVZ's final-award position depend on the substantive content of the decision and the tribunal's subsequent rulings, which are outside the platform's predictive scope.

**(b)** The exact ownership percentages within Manono Lithium SAS vary between primary sources (Zijin disclosure cites ~54.9%; Reuters reports 61% Zijin / 39% Cominière at JV level). The platform records both with sourcing; the discrepancy reflects different reporting bases (consolidated group vs JV-level), and a capital committee should treat this as a known unknown to clarify with Zijin investor relations directly.

**(c)** The CATH January 2026 conditional funding to AVZ is recorded as $20M with rights to 100% production for 5 years + 30.5% indirect stake IF AVZ claims succeed. The terms are conditional and the CATH-AVZ relationship trajectory depends materially on the outcome of the resumed ICSID arbitration (proceedings resumed 23 Jun 2025). The platform records the conditional structure but does not predict its activation.

**(d)** This dossier was produced without engagement with any of the named parties or any current or prospective capital committee. It is a self-produced demonstration of platform utility on a disputed-tenure asset. The next gear is to produce a comparable dossier with an institutional partner — even an unpaid observation engagement — and document the gap between what the platform surfaces and what the institution's allocator actually needs.

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## 7 — Sources

All numerical and factual claims in this dossier trace to one or more of the following primary sources, accessed and verified between 8 May 2026 and 9 May 2026:

1. AVZ Minerals ASX announcement — resumption of ICSID arbitration (June 2025, after the suspension lapsed 23 June 2025); ICSID Case No. ARB/23/20 (AVZ International, Dathcom Mining & Green Lithium Holdings v. DRC) per the ICSID / italaw case register; March 2026 DRC extension-permit cancellation per trade-press reporting.
2. Mining.com, 22 July 2025: "AVZ slams Congo-KoBold deal over disputed lithium project" (ICSID interim orders January 2024; AVZ filing with International Court of Arbitration and ICSID; KoBold $1bn framework May 2025).
3. Mining.com, 24 June 2025: "AVZ Minerals to resume proceedings against DRC over disputed lithium deposit" (suspension lapse June 2025; resumption June 18; permit revocation 2023; rights reassignment to Zijin unit).
4. Reuters via Tradingkey, 21 July 2025: "AVZ Minerals says Congo deal with KoBold breaches arbitration order" (DRC–KoBold agreement of 18 July 2025; commits Congolese government to support KoBold's plan to acquire and develop the Roche Dure deposit at Manono; Lifezone-affiliated framing of US strategic posture).
5. Argus Metals: "KoBold to buy stake in DRC Manono Li project" (Manono ownership dispute between AVZ and Zijin Mining; project launch target 2026; ICSID temporary suspension).
6. Daba Finance, 24 June 2025: "DRC Faces Fresh Legal Battle With AVZ Over Lithium Site" (May 2025 framework agreement; project resource baseline 842 Mt at 1.61% Li₂O; one of world's largest hard-rock lithium deposits).
7. ChemAnalyst: AVZ resumes legal action coverage; KoBold acquisition interest; geopolitical tensions framing.
8. Discovery Alert critical-minerals coverage: "AVZ Minerals Resumes Arbitration Against DRC Over Manono Lithium Project" (75% AVZ stake in Dathcom Mining; PR13359 mining permit awarded May 2022; ICSID under World Bank Group; permit governance under DRC Mining Code 2018).
9. Afrimintel platform v1.0.45 data layer: AFRICA_DEPOSITS Manono Lithium District record (multi-claim sub_records structure with dispute_status flag; pre-dispute baseline AVZ Jan 2024 resource update; April 2026 ICSID partial decision flag; CATH January 2026 conditional funding terms; KoBold May 2025 framework conditional language).
10. Afrimintel platform Country Risk Composite + DRC editorial override (methodology page, Country Risk Composite section, DRC override rationale).
11. Afrimintel platform DRC special_note: "Five headline structural shifts since late 2024" including Washington Accords December 2025, March 2026 CAMI mass revocation, ARECOMS quota system, August 2025 Minister Watum appointment.
12. AVZ Minerals Jan 2024 resource update (Roche Dure + Carrière de l'Este combined: 842 Mt at 1.61% Li₂O, 709 ppm Sn, 37 ppm Ta — pre-dispute baseline).
13. Afrimintel platform risk catalogue: HIGH-severity risk factor "DRC CAMI cadastre cancellations" using AVZ Manono itself as canonical precedent.

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*Brief prepared 9 May 2026. Editorial responsibility: Nikesh Patel. Platform version: Afrimintel v1.0.45. Pipeline status at brief production: 23/23 PASS, 0 CRITICAL findings. Counterparty Extension discipline maintained: no party named is a current Afrimintel customer, prospect, or commissioning party.*