This page documents the scope decomposition for the Afrimintel Bankability Layer v1.2 — a planned platform-layer addition that pairs the existing DCF tool and country-risk composite with explicit financial-modelling substrate for institutional investment-decision audiences.
The scope analysis decomposes institutional bankability requirements into six functional components, maps each against existing platform infrastructure, and documents what has shipped versus what remains in the v1.2 build queue.
The existing DCF Test Battery v1.0 + v1.1 amendment is a reconciliation framework that pressure-tests the platform DCF tool against published NPV anchors. It answers the question:
Does the Afrimintel DCF tool produce reliable NPV outputs when given known inputs?
An institutional bankability layer answers a different question:
Does the platform provide the financial-modelling and risk-assessment substrate that capital allocators need to make investment decisions about African mining assets?
These are different questions. The DCF tool is necessary infrastructure but not sufficient for the bankability question. The Bankability Layer is the additive layer on top.
The bankability question decomposes into six functional components:
| Component | What it does | Status |
|---|---|---|
| A — Project-level ROI projection | Synthesise DCF outputs at the per-province × per-mineral level. Surface expected IRR envelopes and capital deployment patterns. Cross-asset and cross-province comparison view. | v1.2 queued |
| B — Commodity-market scenarios | Integrate scenario-based commodity price forecasts (IEA STEPS/APS/NZE initially; proprietary Wood Mac / S&P / CRU on later commercial-license gate). Allow DCF runs to specify scenario rather than point estimate. Output NPV envelopes across scenarios. | Delivered via the v1.0 Bankability renderer panel on all five worked dossiers (six-dimension decomposition including commodity scenarios). The v0.1 hand-built panels (Kamoa-Kakula v1.0.47, Kabanga v1.0.48) were the cycle-1 demonstration; superseded and removed at v1.0.65. |
| C — Demand-side context | Surface critical-minerals demand projections from public sources (IEA primarily) at commodity level. Cross-reference with platform province coverage to produce "expected demand for African production share" insights. | Delivered via the v1.0 Bankability renderer panel — demand-elasticity dimension carries IEA STEPS/APS/NZE references across the worked dossiers. The v0.1 hand-built panels were the cycle-1 demonstration; superseded and removed at v1.0.65. |
| D — Risk-adjusted discount rate framework | Discount-rate-derivation methodology integrating risk-free rate, country-risk premium (from IC composite), commodity-volatility premium, project-stage premium. Country-risk anchor as Methodology-published Derived value; analyst override preserved. | v1.0.46 country-risk anchor of Component D shipped — single-component country-risk adjustment over baseline (8.0% + (10−IC) × 0.8%, capped [6%, 18%]); full multi-component decomposition v1.2 queued |
| E — Downstream-risk integration | Integrate ACLED conflict-event density + EITI contract terms + IFC Performance Standards alignment + community/environmental risk dimensions. Pair with bankability output for institutional reading. | v1.0.46 ACLED admin1 sub-element of Component E shipped — admin1 substrate across five worked dossiers (commercial-license procurement scheduled before paid launch per audit log v1.0.46 entry #1); EITI + IFC PS integration v1.2 queued |
| F — Multi-asset portfolio comparison view | Cross-asset comparison surface that takes bankability and downstream-risk profiles of multiple assets and surfaces them for direct comparison. Synthesis layer over components A–E. | v1.2 queued — five worked dossiers (Kabanga / Manono / Loulo-Gounkoto / Lobito Corridor / Kamoa-Kakula) form existing substrate |
The v1.0.46 deploy (13 May 2026) shipped initial sub-elements of two Bankability Layer components:
Component D country-risk anchor — single-component country-risk adjustment over baseline. The DCF tool now defaults the discount rate from the province IC composite per the published convention: 8.0% + (10 − IC) × 0.8%, capped to [6%, 18%]. Lufilian Arc IC 4.7 returns 12.2%; Saharan Metacraton IC 1.5 returns 14.8%; Kalahari Platform IC 8.6 returns 9.1%. The 8% baseline is consistent with the discount rates used in the NI 43-101s anchoring the DCF Test Battery (Lifezone Kabanga FS 18 July 2025 @ 8%; Ivanhoe Kamoa-Kakula 2022 NI 43-101 @ 8%); broader industry-default generalisation is not asserted from a two-asset sample. The 0.8%-per-IC-point gradient is Afrimintel-derived convention calibrated to span the DFI empirical 8-15% range for African mining projects; it is not asserted as institutional precedent. Analyst override preserved via the existing user-edit flag pattern.
Component E ACLED admin1 sub-element — coarse-resolution downstream-risk substrate. Five worked dossiers (Kamoa-Kakula, Manono, Kabanga, Loulo-Gounkoto, Lobito Corridor) now carry an ACLED admin1 conflict-event-density block immediately above their first decision-substance section. Values are operator-captured ACLED Explorer snapshots from 12 May 2026; deposit-coordinate-radius density (50 km buffer) requires ACLED Commercial License upgrade scheduled for paid-product launch. ACLED is cited as a public-source counterparty under Open Data License terms per the v1.0.46 audit log entries, with commercial-license procurement scheduled with ACLED before commercial transition.
Component B and C — Bankability coverage across the five worked institutional case studies. The cycle-1 demonstration used hand-built Bankability v0.1 panels deployed across the five intelligence-grade dossiers (v1.0.47–v1.0.52). Those v0.1 panels were superseded by the v1.0 Bankability renderer panel and removed at v1.0.65 — the v1.0 renderer panel is now the single canonical Bankability surface on each dossier. The cycle-1 build demonstrated the pattern across five commodity profiles, four province profiles, and five structurally distinct decision shapes:
Component C demand-side context surfaces IEA STEPS/APS/NZE references (or commodity-appropriate equivalents: World Gold Council for Loulo-Gounkoto; corridor logistics economics for Lobito) in all five panels. The cycle-1 Bankability build demonstrated the pattern is dossier-agnostic across five structurally distinct decision shapes (operating-supermajor, greenfield-pre-FID, disputed-tenure, post-settlement, corridor-class). The East African Rift IC value was updated from 4.4 to 5.5 in v1.0.51 (13 May 2026) following hallucination-check that identified the Tanzania Fraser value 46.38 (deployed v1.0.48.1 labeled as Fraser 2024) was actually Fraser 2023 mislabeled; the actual Fraser 2025 Tanzania score is 68.04 (Sourced Fraser Annual Survey of Mining Companies 2025 released February 2026 per TanzaniaInvest March 2026). Mozambique Belt IC similarly updated from 3.7 to 4.8 reflecting mixed-vintage composite (Tanzania Fraser 2025 Sourced 68.04 + Mozambique Fraser 2023 carry-forward 31.90 pending 2024/2025 verification). The Kamoa Element A 2023 IDP rows Cu price was corrected from $3.10/lb to $3.70/lb in v1.0.48.2 (13 May 2026) per Mining Weekly Kamoa-Kakula update April 2025 verification. The n=3 published-DFS sample (Ivanhoe Kakula DFS @ 8%, Lifezone Kabanga FS @ 8%, AVZ Manono DFS @ 10%) reveals operator-discretion variance ±2pp around an 8-10% range; the platform country-risk-adjustment convention (8.0% + (10-IC) × 0.8%) is calibrated to the 8% lower bound. See audit log v1.0.48.1, v1.0.48.2, v1.0.49, v1.0.51, and v1.0.52 entries. The hand-built v0.1 panels were superseded by the v1.0 Bankability renderer panel and removed at v1.0.65; the v1.0 renderer panel is now the single canonical Bankability surface on each worked dossier. Cross-asset portfolio comparison view (Component F) and the v1.2 §10 publication step sit in the v1.2 build queue.
The v1.2 Bankability Layer build cycle addresses the remaining components and extensions:
Each layer is implementable on top of the existing DCF infrastructure; none requires re-architecture of underlying DCF math.
The v1.2 build sequences by acquirer-perceived-value contribution and dependency order. The two initial sub-elements already shipped (Component D country-risk anchor; Component E ACLED admin1 substrate) provide the underlying framework that the remaining build steps layer on top. Component A ROI synthesis is the next logical build — it uses existing data and produces high-leverage cross-asset view. Component F is the final synthesis step that integrates all five preceding components.
This scope analysis is editorial-level Afrimintel work. References to data sources (IEA, AfDB, EITI, ACLED, Lifezone Metals, Ivanhoe Mines) are public-source counterparty citations engaged on their published merits. No commercial relationship is implied or claimed with any named entity. Per Methodology v1.1 §08, all citations carry verified primary-source provenance; Derived components are flagged explicitly.
The Bankability Layer build sequence does not depend on private-data licensing beyond what is published in the audit log v1.0.46 entry on ACLED. Proprietary forecast integrations (Wood Mac, S&P, CRU, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence) are explicit commercial-license-gated extensions deferred to the appropriate revenue threshold.
This scope analysis stands as the published v0.1 framework. The v1.2 specification document is a separate work product to be published when the v1.2 build cycle opens. Refinements to this scope analysis are tracked in the audit log under v1.0.47.