What commodity-price reference Afrimintel uses for DCF inputs, and where the platform explicitly does NOT produce a price deck.
Afrimintel does not publish a proprietary commodity price deck. The platform's DCF tool and DCF input mapping tables on case-study dossiers reference commodity prices through three explicit conventions:
| Convention | What it means | Where it applies |
|---|---|---|
| 1. LME official prices (spot reference) | For copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminium: London Metal Exchange official cash settlement prices. Public, dated, citable. Used as spot reference, not as forward forecast. | Cu / Ni / Zn / Pb / Al base-metals references in DCF input mappings |
| 2. London gold AM/PM fix (gold reference) | For gold: London Bullion Market Association AM/PM fix. Public, dated, citable. Used as spot reference. | Au references in Loulo-Gounkoto DCF input mapping |
| 3. Operator / industry-aggregator published indicative levels | For lithium spodumene SC6, cobalt, manganese, REE: indicative levels published by Argus Media, Fastmarkets, Mysteel, or operator filings (e.g. Lithium Royalty Corp's December 2025 Goulamina valuation at $1,300/t SC6 long-term consensus per Citi Research). Public, dated, citable. Cited with attribution. | Battery-minerals references in Manono / Kabanga DCF input mappings |
Each DCF input mapping table on the case-study dossiers (Kabanga, Manono, Loulo-Gounkoto, Lobito, Kamoa-Kakula) carries explicit price ranges drawn from the conventions above with dated reference points; institutional users running scenarios should substitute their own price assumptions per their internal price deck.
The platform does not produce:
Institutional users requiring proprietary price decks should consult:
The platform's positioning is depth-over-breadth on Africa-focused asset-level decision-aid; commodity-price-deck capability is structurally different work that the incumbent platforms above produce at scale.
The DCF input mapping tables on each case-study dossier carry price columns formatted as ranges, not single point estimates. The ranges are intended to be reproducible scaffolding — institutional users substitute their own price decks and observe the NPV signal direction across the range.
Example pattern (from Kamoa-Kakula DCF input mapping):
| Scenario | Cu price ($/lb) | Source convention applied |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-compression reference | $3.10/lb real (2020 DFS basis) | Operator-disclosed primary source (Ivanhoe 2020 Kakula DFS) |
| Post-compression base case | $4.00-4.50/lb | LME current spot range (Convention 1) |
| Conservative (margin-stress) | $3.50/lb | Long-term consensus reversion; institutional-user judgment |
| Optimised FS upside | $4.50/lb | Sustained current; institutional-user judgment |
The convention applied is documented; the institutional-user judgment scope (where applicable) is named explicitly. The platform does not assert price forecasts; it provides reproducible scaffolding for institutional users running sensitivity analysis.
Per the platform's three-state Quality Standard:
| Three-state classification | How price inputs are classified |
|---|---|
| Sourced | LME / LBMA fix / operator-disclosed historic price (Convention 1, 2, partial 3) — named, dated, citable primary source |
| Derived | Spot range applied as DCF input scenario — Afrimintel calculation explicitly framed as "current spot range"; institutional-user-judgment substitution scope named explicitly |
| Absent | Multi-year forward price forecasts — explicitly NOT produced by Afrimintel; institutional users directed to proprietary price-deck sources above |