# Track Record — Afrimintel Published Record of Corrections, Prediction-Resolution Items, and Tracked Positions **Status as of 9 May 2026 — Afrimintel platform v1.0.45** --- ## Purpose of this page This page is the platform's published record of three things: 1. **Corrections** — substantive errors caught and corrected, recorded in the public Audit Log 2. **Prediction-resolution items** — positions the platform held in advance of a verifiable outcome, documenting both the prior position and the resolution 3. **Tracked positions** — durable theses the platform has carried in the data layer that have been tested by subsequent events The page is honest about scope. It is not a marketing document. Many positions have not yet resolved; many positions may resolve against the platform. Both eventualities will be recorded here without retrospective adjustment. This is the tracking discipline that institutional capital allocators (Wood Mackenzie, S&P Capital IQ, CRU, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Fastmarkets, Roskill) have built over decades. Afrimintel's record is short — the platform's structured tracking begins with the platform itself. Items below are the verifiable substance of what has been caught, corrected, predicted, and tested in the period the platform's discipline has been operating. **Editorial responsibility.** Nikesh Patel, Honorary Consul of Rwanda in Mauritius (nikesh@afrimintel.com). **Counterparty Extension.** No item below cites a partnership, customer relationship, or commissioned engagement. All items trace to public primary sources or to the platform's own audit log entries. --- ## Section 1 — Corrections caught and recorded ### Item 1.1 — Self-caught hallucination in v1.0.45 build (drift class 18, Audit Log entry #70) **What happened.** During the v1.0.45 build cycle, a fix to one source citation (Kamoa-Kakula res_source) was extrapolated to a parallel asset (Kipushi res_source) without primary-source verification. The extrapolated text introduced two new fabrications: (a) a non-existent "Kipushi Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Technical Report" in the same release cycle as Kamoa-Kakula; (b) a non-existent "2023 NI 43-101 Feasibility Study Update" for Kipushi. **How it was caught.** A comprehensive hallucination check was applied to the build's own corrections. The check surfaced both fabrications. Primary-source verification (Ivanhoe Q1 2026 news release) confirmed that Kipushi's controlling NI 43-101 document is the separate "Kipushi 2022 Feasibility Study Technical Report" dated 14 February 2022, prepared by OreWin, MSA Group, SRK Consulting, and METC Engineering — and that the 31 March 2026 Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Technical Report covers Kamoa-Kakula only, not Kipushi. **How it was corrected.** Kipushi res_source corrected to the verified 2022 FS reference. Same correction propagated to historical migration scripts. Two parallel COUNTRY_PROFILES surface drifts (DRC profile Kipushi sub-entry source citation; synclinorial corridor data_source) corrected at the same fix-class. Resource numbers tightened from rounded "11 Mt @ 34.9% Zn" to verified "11.8 Mt @ 35.3% Zn" per Ivanhoe primary source. Build re-tested to 23/23 PASS. **Why this is the strongest available demonstration of platform discipline.** A fix introduced in a build propagated a fabrication parallel to the original. The comprehensive hallucination check on the corrected build caught the new fabrication. Primary-source verification confirmed the correct text. The Audit Log records the introduction, the catch, and the correction together rather than only the corrected end state. **Source.** Audit Log entry #70 (9 May 2026); Ivanhoe Q1 2026 news release; v1.0.45 pre-deploy hallucination check pipeline. --- ### Item 1.2 — Kamoa-Kakula source-citation imprecision (drift class 15, v1.0.45) **What happened.** Across multiple platform surfaces, the Kamoa-Kakula NI 43-101 reference was generically labelled "Ivanhoe NI 43-101 IDP 2026" — but the actual document title released 31 March 2026 is "Kamoa-Kakula Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Technical Report" (the 2023 IDP is a separate, distinct document). **How it was corrected.** Source citation precision restored across data layer (js/data.js for both Kamoa-Kakula and Kipushi entries), historical migration script, and DCF Test Battery surface. Document chain now correctly distinguished: 2023 IDP → 31 December 2025 effective date → 31 March 2026 release date → AMC + MSA preparers. **Source.** Audit Log entry #70 (9 May 2026); Ivanhoe Mines official press release 31 March 2026. --- ### Item 1.3 — DRC Country Risk Composite EITI component (drift class 16, v1.0.45) **What happened.** Data layer source string for the Country Risk Composite named only Fraser/TI/RGI as components — but the implementation includes EITI as a fourth component at 20% weighting. Discovery: hostile-audit pass against the Quality Standard's claim that the 30/25/25/20 weighting was published. **How it was corrected.** Source string corrected to include "EITI implementation status 2026 (binary membership input)" and to surface that the 30/25/25/20 weights re-normalise across available components with full specification at /methodology/. New "Country Risk Composite" methodology page section published with formula, source documents, weight re-normalisation worked example (Senegal: TI+RGI+EITI without Fraser → composite 67.9), risk-band thresholds, LOW-MEDIUM Fraser top-tier override rationale, and DRC editorial override. The Quality Standard claim now matches the publication. **Source.** Audit Log entry #70 (9 May 2026); methodology page Country Risk Composite specification. --- ### Item 1.4 — Pipeline gap CHECK 23 added (drift class 17, v1.0.45) **What happened.** CHECK 22 enforced tier-count reconciliation between methodology page and data.js but did not extend to secondary user-facing surfaces — a gap that allowed legacy tier framings to drift undetected. **How it was corrected.** CHECK 23 (cross-surface tier consistency) added to the pre-deploy pipeline. Scans .html and .js surfaces (excluding the audit-log historical record and one-shot migration scripts) for legacy two-tier framings (94 spatial-reference, 71 intelligence-grade, 164: 71 intel + 93 spatial) and fails CRITICAL if found. Self-test confirms CHECK 23 catches injected legacy framing and blocks deploy. Pipeline is now 23/23 PASS. **Source.** Audit Log entry #70 (9 May 2026); pipeline self-test results. --- ## Section 2 — Prediction-resolution items ### Item 2.1 — Kamoa-Kakula reserve-grade evolution prediction-vs-actual **Position the platform held.** The platform's Kamoa-Kakula intelligence-grade dossier carried, through Q1 2026, a published expectation that the post-May 2025 seismic event combined with Kakula 2.0 mine plan, pillar-width adjustments, and depletion would result in a material reserve-grade compression at the 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 release. The platform's daily watchlist tracked the May 2025 seismic event and subsequent technical disclosures. **Resolution (31 March 2026).** Ivanhoe published the Kamoa-Kakula Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Technical Report (effective 31 December 2025): Probable Reserve 466 Mt @ 2.82% Cu (13.1 Mt contained), down from December 2022's 472 Mt @ 3.94% Cu — a 25% reduction in contained Cu. The reserve grade compression was material and consistent with the post-seismic-event direction the platform had carried. **What this validates.** The platform's discipline of tracking dated operational events (May 2025 seismic) and propagating them through the reserve-confidence framing in the IG dossier produced a position that the subsequent NI 43-101 release validated in direction. **What this does NOT validate.** The platform did not predict the precise reserve tonnage or grade. Predictions of precise reserve outcomes from technical events are the domain of NI 43-101 reconciliation studies, not screening platforms. The validation here is directional confidence framing, not predictive accuracy. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Kamoa-Kakula IG dossier; Ivanhoe Mines NI 43-101 Mineral Reserve and Mineral Resource Technical Report effective 31 December 2025, released 31 March 2026, prepared by AMC Mining Consultants South Africa (Pty) Ltd and MSA Group (Pty) Ltd; v1.0.45 audit log. --- ### Item 2.2 — AVZ ICSID Manono trajectory direction signal **Position the platform held.** The platform's Manono Lithium District record was flagged through Q1 2026 with `dispute_status: "multi_claim_active_arbitration"`, multi-claim sub-records explicitly mapping the Zijin/Cominière NE construction track and Dathcom-AVZ South arbitration track separately. The platform's risk catalogue carried the AVZ Manono case as the canonical HIGH-severity precedent for "DRC CAMI cadastre cancellations: licence cancelled by CAMI 2022 despite $350M+ invested." **Resolution (April 2026).** ICSID tribunal issued a partial decision favourable to DRC and lifted earlier interim measures requiring recognition of AVZ rights. AVZ position legally weakened. The platform's HIGH-severity DRC CAMI risk framing and the multi-claim sub-record structure both held through this resolution direction. **What this validates.** The platform's discipline of treating disputed-tenure assets as multi-claim structures (not single-operator) and of carrying jurisdiction-specific risk overrides (DRC HIGH editorial override) produced a position consistent with the contested multi-claim status of the asset, pending ICSID resolution. **What this does NOT validate.** The April 2026 decision is partial. The substantive final award is not yet rendered. The platform records the partial decision as dated procedural fact; the implications for AVZ's final-award position depend on subsequent tribunal rulings outside the platform's predictive scope. The platform did not — and does not — predict ICSID arbitration outcomes. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Manono Lithium District record (`dispute_status: "multi_claim_active_arbitration"`); platform DRC editorial override; AVZ Minerals 19 November 2025 Corporate and Arbitration Update; ICSID procedural disclosures April 2026. --- ### Item 2.3 — Mali Mining Code post-settlement durability framing **Position the platform held.** Through 2025, the platform's Loulo-Gounkoto record carried the Mali 2023 Mining Code (Law No. 2023-040) as a structural recalibration framework, with the Loulo-Gounkoto provisional administration June 2025 onwards flagged as a HIGH-impact governance event. The platform's risk framework treated 2023 Mining Code adoption as a continental AMV-aligned shift not unique to Mali but with country-specific intensity factors (sovereign continuity post-2020 transitions; gold-price-linked state cashflow demands). **Resolution (24 November 2025 settlement).** Barrick and Mali agreed: ~$430M cash + 10-year permit extension + return of 3 metric tons of gold + ICSID withdrawal + 2023 Mining Code acceptance + 80/20 ownership preserved + revised 9-12% blended royalty. Loulo permit renewed 13 February 2026. **What this validates.** The platform's discipline of treating 2023 Mining Code as a durable structural framework (not a transient negotiation tactic) produced a position consistent with the eventual settlement architecture (Barrick formally accepted 2023 Code rather than securing an exemption). **What this does NOT validate.** The settlement framework's long-term durability has not yet been tested. The platform's published trigger framework (six conditions whose materialisation would invalidate the settlement) is forward-looking; resolution against any trigger has not yet occurred. The platform did not predict the precise settlement amount, the gold restitution structure, or the royalty tranching. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Loulo-Gounkoto record; Barrick official press release 24 November 2025; AfronomicsLaw analysis 9 February 2026. --- ## Section 3 — Tracked positions (carried by the data layer; outcomes pending) ### Item 3.1 — Kabanga FID timing and DFC Letter of Interest progression **Position currently carried.** The platform's Kabanga Nickel record carries `mid-2026 FID + financial close of multi-source funding package` as the operator-disclosed target, with DFC Letter of Interest dated September 2024, Société Générale lead financial adviser, EXIM Bank actively engaged, JOGMEC partnership, and Standard Chartered Bank engaged for new equity partner search. The platform's daily watchlist tracks Lifezone disclosures. **Outcome pending.** Mid-2026 FID occurs, slips, or is restructured. Financial close achieves multi-source DFI participation, slips, or restructures around different financing parties. DFC Letter of Interest converts to definitive board approval, slips, or is withdrawn. **What will be recorded.** When the FID timing resolves (whether to schedule, slipped, or restructured), the platform will record the resolution in this Track Record without retrospective adjustment of the original tracked position. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Kabanga IG dossier; Lifezone Form 6-K 18 July 2025; Lifezone press releases 11 December 2025, 23 September 2024. --- ### Item 3.2 — Manono ICSID dispute resolution **Position currently carried.** The platform's Manono record carries the active ICSID arbitration (Case No. ARB/23/20; US-mediated suspension lapsed 23 Jun 2025, proceedings resumed) with five conditional resolution pathways recorded (Zijin operating vehicle stabilises; AVZ-KoBold framework activates; ICSID resumption + AVZ favourable; ICSID resumption + DRC favourable; status quo deadlock). **Outcome pending.** One of the five conditional pathways resolves the dispute; ICSID merits undecided as of mid-2026 (proceedings active since the 23 Jun 2025 resumption). **What will be recorded.** The path that materialises will be recorded in this Track Record with the date the resolution became verifiable through public primary sources. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Manono record; AVZ Minerals 19 November 2025 Corporate and Arbitration Update. --- ### Item 3.3 — Loulo-Gounkoto settlement durability triggers **Position currently carried.** The platform's Loulo-Gounkoto record carries six trigger conditions whose materialisation would invalidate the November 2025 settlement framework: sovereign-continuity event with explicit settlement repudiation; Mining Code interpretive challenge by state on royalty calculation, local content, or expansion approvals; permit-renewal denial for satellite operations or expansions; sustained gold price below $2,200/oz combined with state cashflow pressure; detention or charge of Barrick personnel post-settlement; provisional administration imposed on any other operating asset (Sadiola, Syama). **Outcome pending.** None, one, or multiple triggers materialise over the 12-24 month durability test cycle following the November 2025 settlement. Settlement framework holds, partially invalidates, or fully invalidates. **What will be recorded.** Trigger materialisations (or non-materialisations confirmed by passage of time without invalidation) will be recorded in this Track Record. The November 2025 settlement is the anchor; subsequent resolution is the test. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Loulo-Gounkoto record; Barrick official press release 24 November 2025. --- ### Item 3.4 — Botswana Kalahari Copper Belt (KCB) extension thesis **Position currently carried.** The platform's Kalahari Platform province record carries the Northwest Zambia (Ivanhoe licence area) and NW Botswana extension as the geological continuation of KCB into cover, with `key_gap: "Northwest Zambia (Ivanhoe licence area) and NW Botswana extension — the geological continuation of KCB into cover"`. The platform's exploration upside framework treats KCB extension as a structural prospectivity thesis, not a single-asset call. **Outcome pending.** Resolution of KCB extension prospectivity through (a) drilling results from Ivanhoe or other operators; (b) regional aeromagnetic surveys (SaNaBoZi extensions, BGI national gravity); (c) discoveries within the cover sequence that validate or invalidate the prospectivity thesis. **What will be recorded.** Drilling intercepts that validate or invalidate the thesis; regional survey findings that resolve the conductivity / gravity character of the KCB extension; new exploration projects launched into the prospectivity zone. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Kalahari Platform WHERE_DATA record; province profile. --- ### Item 3.5 — Indonesian nickel oversupply and first-quartile cost screen **Position currently carried.** The platform's Critical Minerals sub-vertical and Kabanga Nickel record both carry the Indonesian laterite oversupply context as a structural variable: Indonesia controls >60% of global nickel supply; ~40% of Indonesian/Chinese output runs in the red at $15,000/t Ni; BHP Nickel West break-even near $23,000/t. Kabanga's $3.36/lb AISC ($7,400/t) places it in the first quartile. The platform's screening discipline treats first-quartile cost position as the critical Class I sulphide nickel filter for African asset evaluation in the current market. **Outcome pending.** Indonesian production discipline (or absence) over the 2026-2028 cycle; tightening of Class I battery-grade nickel supply versus stainless-grade segregation; Western supply-chain premium emergence (or absence); operator-published cost-curve evolution. **What will be recorded.** Operator FS / cost-curve disclosures that validate or invalidate the first-quartile screen as the appropriate decision filter. Indonesian production data that confirms or revises the >60% / red-margin thesis. Western supply-chain premium emergence (or absence) as evidenced by off-take pricing disclosures. **Source.** Afrimintel platform Kabanga record; Lifezone CEO disclosure to The Northern Miner December 2025; platform Critical Minerals sub-vertical. --- ## Section 4 — Honest framing of this Track Record ### What this record IS - A published, dated, source-cited record of corrections (caught and recorded), prediction-resolution items (where the platform held a position and a verifiable outcome resolved), and tracked positions (currently carried in the data layer awaiting resolution). - A discipline test. Most institutional research products do not publish their corrections, do not record their predictions in advance of resolution, and do not name positions whose resolution may go against them. This page does all three. - A foundation for institutional evaluation. A senior reviewer at an institution can audit the record's construction, source-check items, and form their own view of the platform's discipline trajectory. ### What this record is NOT - A marketing document. There is no claim that any item below validates the platform commercially or institutionally. - A complete record of every position the platform has ever held. The record above prioritises items with sufficient source-trail to be defensible without inference. - A predictive performance ledger. Several items above are tracked positions whose outcomes are pending — outcomes may resolve against the platform. - A substitute for the published Audit Log (which records every correction at a granularity below the synthesis above). - A claim of partnership, customer relationship, or commercial conversation with any party named. The Counterparty Extension discipline applies. ### Cadence - New corrections are added to the Audit Log within the build cycle of the correction. Synthesis here updates at quarterly intervals. - New prediction-resolution items are added when public primary sources confirm a tracked position's outcome. - New tracked positions are added when the data layer carries a position that is dated, verifiable, and forward-looking enough to resolve within a 6-24 month cycle. ### Cross-references - **Methodology** at /methodology/ — full methodology including Country Risk Composite specification (30/25/25/20 Fraser/TI/RGI/EITI weighted, with EITI binarisation rule, weight re-normalisation worked example, risk-band thresholds, DRC editorial override). - **Audit Log** at /audit-log/ — public record of every correction since April 2026, with entry-level granularity. - **Quality Standard** at /quality-standard/ — three-state Sourced/Derived/Absent claim model. - **Case Studies** at /case-studies/ — three worked dossiers (Kabanga pre-FID, Manono disputed tenure, Loulo-Gounkoto post-settlement) demonstrating decision-aid utility across decision-type. --- *Track Record published 9 May 2026. Editorial responsibility: Nikesh Patel. Platform version: Afrimintel v1.0.45. Pipeline status: 23/23 PASS, 0 CRITICAL findings. Counterparty Extension discipline maintained: no item cites a partnership, customer relationship, or commercial conversation with any party named.*