A side-by-side record of Afrimintel's five published case studies — Kabanga Pre-FID, Kamoa-Kakula Operating-Supermajor, Manono Disputed-Tenure, Loulo-Gounkoto Post-Settlement, and Lobito Corridor Infrastructure — across standardised institutional-screening dimensions. The five cases were chosen explicitly to demonstrate decision-shape coverage; this matrix surfaces them at the same level of abstraction so the reader can see how the platform's discipline applies across structurally different decision types without losing case-specific detail.
Companion view: a side-by-side record of asset profile, each issuer's NPV anchor, and the ACLED and water-basin record is published at /case-studies/comparison/portfolio.html. The two surfaces serve different purposes: this matrix is the at-a-glance view; the portfolio comparison carries the state of each cell.
| Dimension | Kabanga Pre-FID DFI screening |
Kamoa-Kakula Operating-supermajor re-rating |
Manono Disputed-tenure capital allocation |
Loulo-Gounkoto Post-settlement re-entry |
Lobito Corridor System-level infrastructure exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodity | Nickel sulphide (with Cu-Co credits) | Copper (with Co credits) | Hard-rock lithium (spodumene) | Gold | Multi-commodity (Cu, Co, REE) infrastructure |
| Asset stage | Pre-FID; bankability review completed Dec 2025 | Operating; post-31 March 2026 NI 43-101 reserve update | Construction (Manono Lithium SAS); contested by separate AVZ claim | Operating (gradual restart from Dec 2025) | Phase 1 operational (refurbishment ongoing); Phase 2 (Zambia extension) financial close Q4 2027 |
| Operator / sponsor | Lifezone Metals (NYSE: LZM); 84% via KNL → 84% TNCL → GoT 16% free-carried | Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) 39.6% / Zijin Mining 39.6% / Crystal River Global 0.8% / Government of DRC 20% free-carried; operated by Ivanhoe Mines | Multi-claim: Manono Lithium SAS (Zijin/Cominière) operating; AVZ Minerals (ASX) contesting | Barrick Mining (NYSE: B / TSX: ABX) 80%; Mali state 20% | LAR consortium (Trafigura/Mota-Engil/Vecturis) 30-yr concession; multi-DFI funding stack |
| Country | Tanzania | DRC, Lualaba Province | DRC, Tanganyika Province; multi-claim, ICSID arbitration open | Mali | Angola / DRC / Zambia |
| Resource / reserves baseline | 52.2 Mt P+P at 1.98% Ni / 0.27% Cu / 0.15% Co (FS 18 Jul 2025) | 466 Mt P+P at 2.82% Cu (Ivanhoe NI 43-101 31 March 2026); ~30% contained-Cu reduction vs prior reserve (18.6 → 13.1 Mt contained Cu) | 842 Mt at 1.61% Li₂O resource (operator-disclosed) | ~7.2 Moz P+P at ~4 g/t Au (Barrick Dec 2024 R&R) | N/A — system-level exposure; relevant assets are Kamoa-Kakula, Kansanshi, Sentinel, Tenke Fungurume, Kisanfu and others within ~500km of corridor |
| FS economics (operator) | $1.58bn after-tax NPV @ 8%; 23.3% IRR; 4.5-yr payback at $8.49/lb Ni | Pre-31 March 2026 anchor: $19.1bn NPV @ 8% (2023 IDP). Post-31 March 2026 reserve compression: optimised 5-Year FS targeted March 2027 (re-anchor pending) | Multiple economic estimates; AVZ FS pre-suspension (~$1.5-2bn NPV class); Manono Lithium SAS production target Q2 2026 | ~$900M annual revenue (operator post-settlement); 420 koz/yr FS capacity vs 290 koz attributable 2026 guidance vs 723 koz 2024 actual | Cumulative committed >$6bn across DFC ($753M), AfDB ($500M direct + ~$1.6bn fundraise), AFC ($500M direct + $3-5bn raise), EU+EIB+member states (~€2bn), LAR ($800M) |
| CAPEX | $942M pre-production (FS, 100% basis) | Operational; growth capex sustained; Phase 3 expansion underway; revised CAPEX profile in optimised FS pending | Multi-claim; Zijin/Cominière construction CAPEX disclosed at JV level (~$1bn) | Existing operation; sustaining capex ~$140M/yr historic basis | ~$2.3bn refurbishment Phase 1 (Lobito-Atlantic); Zambia extension Phase 2 capex TBD pending financial close |
| AISC / cost (operator) | $3.36/lb Ni net of Cu+Co credits (FS) | $0.48/lb Cu first-5-yr DFS-stated; $1.06/lb LoM (cycle-2 reference) | No operator cost figure on the record; the case study carries a DFS-implied range | ~$1,400/oz AISC (historic basis) | Per-tonne logistics delta vs Tazara/Dar: ~$120/t central illustrative (Kamoa-Kakula); ranges $60-180/t across asset types |
| Mine life / horizon | 18 years P+P (FS); 22 years M+I+I (IA) | approximately 25-year life of mine (Ivanhoe, 31 Mar 2026 report); 33 years in the 2023 PFS at 19.2 Mtpa (Ivanhoe, 30 Jan 2023) | Decades resource-life; commercial trajectory contested | 10-year permit extension (Feb 2026) → ~2036 regulatory horizon; 2041 underground geology | 30-year LAR concession; corridor infrastructure life multi-decade |
| Most material recent disclosure | 11 Dec 2025 — Bankability review completed; debt sizing and lender model agreed | 31 March 2026 — NI 43-101 reserve update (contained Cu down 25% against the depleted Dec 2024 estimate per Ivanhoe; approximately 25-year life of mine) | 23 April 2026 — ICSID Procedural Order No. 7 (provisional measures lifted; merits undecided) | Feb 2026 — Mali governmental decree confirms 10-year permit extension; ICSID claims withdrawn under the settlement | April 2026 — Joint MDB Statement on Critical Minerals to Manufacturing Value Chains |
Until this date the matrix also carried a country-risk grade in the Country row (for example "HIGH composite; editorial override" for the two DRC assets), a DFI mandate-fit grade per asset (from "STRONG" to "STRUCTURALLY BLOCKED"), a "key condition" row of risks Afrimintel selected, the label "first-quartile" or "industry-mid" on operator costs, and two sections of observations and usage guidance built on confidence ratings. Those were Afrimintel's own judgements. The platform records what the filings say and whether they agree; it does not grade countries, assets or financing eligibility. They are withdrawn, and described on the audit log. The remaining rows state what each operator has published.