Case Study Comparison Matrix

A side-by-side reading of Afrimintel's five published case studies — Kabanga Pre-FID, Kamoa-Kakula Operating-Supermajor, Manono Disputed-Tenure, Loulo-Gounkoto Post-Settlement, and Lobito Corridor Infrastructure — across standardised institutional-screening dimensions. The five cases were chosen explicitly to demonstrate decision-shape coverage; this matrix surfaces them at the same level of abstraction so the reader can see how the platform's discipline applies across structurally different decision types without losing case-specific detail.

Companion view: a deeper side-by-side comparison across asset profile, bankability decomposition (Methodology §10), downstream-risk substrate, multilateral safeguards integration (Component E v1.2), and counterparty eligibility is published at /case-studies/comparison/portfolio.html. The two surfaces serve different purposes: this matrix is the at-a-glance decision-shape coverage view; the portfolio comparison is the institutional analyst's working surface.

Reading discipline. The screening reading column is decision-shape-appropriate — not a generic GO/NO-GO. A pre-FID asset has different decision categories from a disputed-tenure asset which has different decision categories from a post-settlement asset which has different decision categories from a system-level corridor exposure. The matrix preserves these distinctions rather than forcing common categories that would erase decision-shape detail. Field-level provenance per Quality Standard applies to every cell.

The matrix — fourteen dimensions across five cases

Dimension	Kabanga Pre-FID DFI screening	Kamoa-Kakula Operating-supermajor re-rating	Manono Disputed-tenure capital allocation	Loulo-Gounkoto Post-settlement re-entry	Lobito Corridor System-level infrastructure exposure
Commodity	Nickel sulphide (with Cu-Co credits)	Copper (with Co credits)	Hard-rock lithium (spodumene)	Gold	Multi-commodity (Cu, Co, REE) infrastructure
Asset stage	Pre-FID; bankability review completed Dec 2025	Operating Tier-1 supermajor; post-31 March 2026 NI 43-101 reserve compression	Construction (Manono Lithium SAS); contested by separate AVZ claim	Operating (gradual restart from Dec 2025)	Phase 1 operational (refurbishment ongoing); Phase 2 (Zambia extension) financial close Q4 2027
Operator / sponsor	Lifezone Metals (NYSE: LZM); 84% via KNL → 84% TNCL → GoT 16% free-carried	Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) 39.6% / Zijin Mining 39.6% / Crystal River Global 0.8% / Government of DRC 20% free-carried; operated by Ivanhoe Mines	Multi-claim: Manono Lithium SAS (Zijin/Cominière) operating; AVZ Minerals (ASX) contesting	Barrick Mining (NYSE: B / TSX: ABX) 80%; Mali state 20%	LAR consortium (Trafigura/Mota-Engil/Vecturis) 30-yr concession; multi-DFI funding stack
Country	Tanzania (LOW-MEDIUM composite)	DRC, Lualaba Province (HIGH composite; editorial override; Lobito Corridor logistics dependency)	DRC (HIGH risk; editorial override; multi-claim adjudication via ICSID)	Mali (BELOW investment grade sovereign; post-settlement framework)	Trilateral: Angola / DRC / Zambia (composite varies by segment)
Resource / reserves baseline	52.2 Mt P+P at 1.98% Ni / 0.27% Cu / 0.15% Co (FS 18 Jul 2025)	466 Mt P+P at 2.82% Cu (Ivanhoe NI 43-101 31 March 2026); ~30% contained-Cu reduction vs prior reserve (18.6 → 13.1 Mt contained Cu)	842 Mt at 1.61% Li₂O resource (operator-disclosed)	~7.2 Moz P+P at ~4 g/t Au (Barrick Dec 2024 R&R)	N/A — system-level exposure; relevant assets are Kamoa-Kakula, Kansanshi, Sentinel, Tenke Fungurume, Kisanfu and others within ~500km of corridor
FS economics (operator)	$1.58bn after-tax NPV @ 8%; 23.3% IRR; 4.5-yr payback at $8.49/lb Ni	Pre-31 March 2026 anchor: $19.1bn NPV @ 8% (2023 IDP). Post-31 March 2026 reserve compression: optimised 5-Year FS targeted March 2027 (re-anchor pending)	Multiple economic estimates; AVZ FS pre-suspension (~$1.5-2bn NPV class); Manono Lithium SAS production target Q2 2026	~$900M annual revenue (operator post-settlement); 420 koz/yr FS capacity vs 290 koz attributable 2026 guidance vs 723 koz 2024 actual	Cumulative committed >$6bn across DFC ($753M), AfDB ($500M direct + ~$1.6bn fundraise), AFC ($500M direct + $3-5bn raise), EU+EIB+member states (~€2bn), LAR ($800M)
CAPEX	$942M pre-production (FS, 100% basis)	Operational; growth capex sustained; Phase 3 expansion underway; revised CAPEX profile in optimised FS pending	Multi-claim; Zijin/Cominière construction CAPEX disclosed at JV level (~$1bn)	Existing operation; sustaining capex ~$140M/yr historic basis	~$2.3bn refurbishment Phase 1 (Lobito-Atlantic); Zambia extension Phase 2 capex TBD pending financial close
AISC / cost positioning	$3.36/lb Ni net of Cu+Co credits (FS); first-quartile per CRU 2025 model	$0.48/lb Cu first-5-yr DFS-stated; $1.06/lb LoM (cycle-2 reference); first-quartile globally	Operator-disclosed; spodumene cost positioning depends on flotation recovery + DRC logistics	Industry-mid AISC (~$1,400/oz historic); post-settlement royalty change adds ~$30M/yr cost burden	Per-tonne logistics delta vs Tazara/Dar: ~$120/t central illustrative (Kamoa-Kakula); ranges $60-180/t across asset types
Mine life / horizon	18 years P+P (FS); 22 years M+I+I (IA)	21 years P+P (post-31 March 2026 reserve); was 33 years pre-compression	Decades resource-life; commercial trajectory contested	10-year permit extension (Feb 2026) → ~2036 regulatory horizon; 2041 underground geology	30-year LAR concession; corridor infrastructure life multi-decade
DFI mandate-fit status	STRUCTURALLY AVAILABLE — DFC anchor, EXIM, JOGMEC under discussion; AfDB ECNR / EIB / FMO-Proparco-CDC / IFC mandate-fit identified	N/A direct (Ivanhoe-Zijin operator equity); LIMITED via Lobito Corridor multi-DFI co-financing $753M Dec 2025 ($553M US DFC + $200M DBSA)	STRUCTURALLY BLOCKED — disputed-tenure exclusion explicit at IFC, AfDB, EIB, FMO, Proparco, CDC, BIO; implicit at DFC and EXIM under risk-of-loss	LIMITED — Mali sovereign credit constrains multilateral lending headroom; streaming/royalty counterparties operationally eligible as different category	STRONG — already-engaged multi-DFI structure (DFC, AfDB, AFC, EU+EIB); Mauritania railway corridor AfDB+EIB Global $275M Nov 2025 as direct precedent
Screening reading	ABOVE THE BAR for DFI anchor lending; CONDITIONAL on bankability evidence + nickel-price floor	RE-RATE — operator economics retain Tier-1 cost positioning + corridor optionality, but ~30% contained-Cu compression + 21-yr (vs prior 33-yr) mine life require re-pricing against new reserve base for any incremental institutional exposure	HOLD — DFI-INELIGIBLE pending ICSID resolution; sovereign-strategic and private-strategic capital already engaged	MONITOR through 2026 durability window; LIMITED DFI debt; OPERATIONAL eligibility for streaming/royalty	MULTI-LAYER — Decision A direct infrastructure debt: STRONG. Decision B operator-consortium: CONDITIONAL. Decision C off-take: SEPARATE FRAMEWORK. Decision D asset-level: EQUIVALENT TO ASSET DECISION.
Key risk that flips the reading	Sustained nickel price <$5/lb; NEMC ESMP delay beyond Q3 2026; Lifezone parent liquidity event	Sustained Cu price <$3.50/lb LoM-average; DRC paramilitary mining force operationalisation milestone; optimised FS (March 2027) discloses materially lower NPV trajectory	ICSID outcome timing and substantive content; CATH/KoBold conditional-funding activation triggers	Settlement durability through 12-24 month restart; Mali sovereign credit transitions; gold price <$2,000/oz sustained	Trilateral political coordination failure; volume forecast under-delivery (ECDPM-flagged); US-China critical-minerals strategy shift
Most material recent disclosure	11 Dec 2025 — Bankability review completed; debt sizing and lender model agreed	31 March 2026 — NI 43-101 reserve update (~30% contained-Cu reduction; 21-year mine life)	April 2026 — ICSID partial decision (procedural)	Feb 2026 — Mali governmental decree confirms 10-year permit extension; ICSID withdrawn	April 2026 — Joint MDB Statement on Critical Minerals to Manufacturing Value Chains
Decision-readiness confidence	HIGH on FS economics; MEDIUM on long-term Ni price assumption	HIGH on Q1 2026 production; HIGH on reserve compression as disclosed fact; MEDIUM on long-term Cu price; optimised FS pending	HIGH on geology and contestation as fact; LOW on resolution timeline	HIGH on permit + reserves; MEDIUM on royalty mechanics; LOW on durability	HIGH on cumulative committed; MEDIUM on volume forecast and political coordination

Dimension

Kabanga
Pre-FID DFI screening

Kamoa-Kakula
Operating-supermajor re-rating

Manono
Disputed-tenure capital allocation

Loulo-Gounkoto
Post-settlement re-entry

Lobito Corridor
System-level infrastructure exposure

Commodity

Nickel sulphide (with Cu-Co credits)

Copper (with Co credits)

Hard-rock lithium (spodumene)

Gold

Multi-commodity (Cu, Co, REE) infrastructure

Asset stage

Pre-FID; bankability review completed Dec 2025

Operating Tier-1 supermajor; post-31 March 2026 NI 43-101 reserve compression

Construction (Manono Lithium SAS); contested by separate AVZ claim

Operating (gradual restart from Dec 2025)

Phase 1 operational (refurbishment ongoing); Phase 2 (Zambia extension) financial close Q4 2027

Operator / sponsor

Lifezone Metals (NYSE: LZM); 84% via KNL → 84% TNCL → GoT 16% free-carried

Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN) 39.6% / Zijin Mining 39.6% / Crystal River Global 0.8% / Government of DRC 20% free-carried; operated by Ivanhoe Mines

Multi-claim: Manono Lithium SAS (Zijin/Cominière) operating; AVZ Minerals (ASX) contesting

Barrick Mining (NYSE: B / TSX: ABX) 80%; Mali state 20%

LAR consortium (Trafigura/Mota-Engil/Vecturis) 30-yr concession; multi-DFI funding stack

Country

Tanzania (LOW-MEDIUM composite)

DRC, Lualaba Province (HIGH composite; editorial override; Lobito Corridor logistics dependency)

DRC (HIGH risk; editorial override; multi-claim adjudication via ICSID)

Mali (BELOW investment grade sovereign; post-settlement framework)

Trilateral: Angola / DRC / Zambia (composite varies by segment)

Resource / reserves baseline

52.2 Mt P+P at 1.98% Ni / 0.27% Cu / 0.15% Co (FS 18 Jul 2025)

466 Mt P+P at 2.82% Cu (Ivanhoe NI 43-101 31 March 2026); ~30% contained-Cu reduction vs prior reserve (18.6 → 13.1 Mt contained Cu)

842 Mt at 1.61% Li₂O resource (operator-disclosed)

~7.2 Moz P+P at ~4 g/t Au (Barrick Dec 2024 R&R)

N/A — system-level exposure; relevant assets are Kamoa-Kakula, Kansanshi, Sentinel, Tenke Fungurume, Kisanfu and others within ~500km of corridor

FS economics (operator)

$1.58bn after-tax NPV @ 8%; 23.3% IRR; 4.5-yr payback at $8.49/lb Ni

Pre-31 March 2026 anchor: $19.1bn NPV @ 8% (2023 IDP). Post-31 March 2026 reserve compression: optimised 5-Year FS targeted March 2027 (re-anchor pending)

Multiple economic estimates; AVZ FS pre-suspension (~$1.5-2bn NPV class); Manono Lithium SAS production target Q2 2026

~$900M annual revenue (operator post-settlement); 420 koz/yr FS capacity vs 290 koz attributable 2026 guidance vs 723 koz 2024 actual

Cumulative committed >$6bn across DFC ($753M), AfDB ($500M direct + ~$1.6bn fundraise), AFC ($500M direct + $3-5bn raise), EU+EIB+member states (~€2bn), LAR ($800M)

CAPEX

$942M pre-production (FS, 100% basis)

Operational; growth capex sustained; Phase 3 expansion underway; revised CAPEX profile in optimised FS pending

Multi-claim; Zijin/Cominière construction CAPEX disclosed at JV level (~$1bn)

Existing operation; sustaining capex ~$140M/yr historic basis

~$2.3bn refurbishment Phase 1 (Lobito-Atlantic); Zambia extension Phase 2 capex TBD pending financial close

AISC / cost positioning

$3.36/lb Ni net of Cu+Co credits (FS); first-quartile per CRU 2025 model

$0.48/lb Cu first-5-yr DFS-stated; $1.06/lb LoM (cycle-2 reference); first-quartile globally

Operator-disclosed; spodumene cost positioning depends on flotation recovery + DRC logistics

Industry-mid AISC (~$1,400/oz historic); post-settlement royalty change adds ~$30M/yr cost burden

Per-tonne logistics delta vs Tazara/Dar: ~$120/t central illustrative (Kamoa-Kakula); ranges $60-180/t across asset types

Mine life / horizon

18 years P+P (FS); 22 years M+I+I (IA)

21 years P+P (post-31 March 2026 reserve); was 33 years pre-compression

Decades resource-life; commercial trajectory contested

10-year permit extension (Feb 2026) → ~2036 regulatory horizon; 2041 underground geology

30-year LAR concession; corridor infrastructure life multi-decade

DFI mandate-fit status

STRUCTURALLY AVAILABLE — DFC anchor, EXIM, JOGMEC under discussion; AfDB ECNR / EIB / FMO-Proparco-CDC / IFC mandate-fit identified

N/A direct (Ivanhoe-Zijin operator equity); LIMITED via Lobito Corridor multi-DFI co-financing $753M Dec 2025 ($553M US DFC + $200M DBSA)

STRUCTURALLY BLOCKED — disputed-tenure exclusion explicit at IFC, AfDB, EIB, FMO, Proparco, CDC, BIO; implicit at DFC and EXIM under risk-of-loss

LIMITED — Mali sovereign credit constrains multilateral lending headroom; streaming/royalty counterparties operationally eligible as different category

STRONG — already-engaged multi-DFI structure (DFC, AfDB, AFC, EU+EIB); Mauritania railway corridor AfDB+EIB Global $275M Nov 2025 as direct precedent

Screening reading

ABOVE THE BAR for DFI anchor lending; CONDITIONAL on bankability evidence + nickel-price floor

RE-RATE — operator economics retain Tier-1 cost positioning + corridor optionality, but ~30% contained-Cu compression + 21-yr (vs prior 33-yr) mine life require re-pricing against new reserve base for any incremental institutional exposure

HOLD — DFI-INELIGIBLE pending ICSID resolution; sovereign-strategic and private-strategic capital already engaged

MONITOR through 2026 durability window; LIMITED DFI debt; OPERATIONAL eligibility for streaming/royalty

MULTI-LAYER — Decision A direct infrastructure debt: STRONG. Decision B operator-consortium: CONDITIONAL. Decision C off-take: SEPARATE FRAMEWORK. Decision D asset-level: EQUIVALENT TO ASSET DECISION.

Key risk that flips the reading

Sustained nickel price <$5/lb; NEMC ESMP delay beyond Q3 2026; Lifezone parent liquidity event

Sustained Cu price <$3.50/lb LoM-average; DRC paramilitary mining force operationalisation milestone; optimised FS (March 2027) discloses materially lower NPV trajectory

ICSID outcome timing and substantive content; CATH/KoBold conditional-funding activation triggers

Settlement durability through 12-24 month restart; Mali sovereign credit transitions; gold price <$2,000/oz sustained

Trilateral political coordination failure; volume forecast under-delivery (ECDPM-flagged); US-China critical-minerals strategy shift

Most material recent disclosure

11 Dec 2025 — Bankability review completed; debt sizing and lender model agreed

31 March 2026 — NI 43-101 reserve update (~30% contained-Cu reduction; 21-year mine life)

April 2026 — ICSID partial decision (procedural)

Feb 2026 — Mali governmental decree confirms 10-year permit extension; ICSID withdrawn

April 2026 — Joint MDB Statement on Critical Minerals to Manufacturing Value Chains

Decision-readiness confidence

HIGH on FS economics; MEDIUM on long-term Ni price assumption

HIGH on Q1 2026 production; HIGH on reserve compression as disclosed fact; MEDIUM on long-term Cu price; optimised FS pending

HIGH on geology and contestation as fact; LOW on resolution timeline

HIGH on permit + reserves; MEDIUM on royalty mechanics; LOW on durability

HIGH on cumulative committed; MEDIUM on volume forecast and political coordination

What this matrix demonstrates

Five observations a senior allocator would draw from the matrix:

Decision shape is the primary axis, not commodity. Kabanga and Manono are both critical-minerals-development assets but require fundamentally different DFI frameworks because pre-FID screening and disputed-tenure capital allocation have structurally distinct risk profiles. Kamoa-Kakula and Kabanga are both nickel-sulphide-or-copper-sulphide development assets in the same broader thesis but occupy different decision shapes (operating-supermajor re-rating vs pre-FID greenfield screening). A platform that delivered five asset-type-comparable dossiers on critical minerals would not produce the same decision-aid value as five decision-shape-comparable dossiers across asset types.

Confidence varies materially across cases on different dimensions. No case is HIGH-confidence across every dimension. A senior reader using the platform should weight stress-test sensitivities against the dimensions with LOW or MEDIUM confidence rather than treating asset-level data as uniformly reliable.

The DFI mandate-fit status alone is insufficient for screening. Manono shows DFIs structurally blocked while sovereign-strategic and private-strategic capital are actively engaged. Loulo shows DFI debt limited while streaming counterparties operate under different frameworks. Kamoa-Kakula shows operator equity already in place with DFI engagement scoped through the Lobito Corridor infrastructure layer rather than direct asset-level lending. A decision-aid platform that mapped only DFI eligibility would miss the institutional-capital-allocation reality that multiple capital categories engage with each asset under different frameworks.

Reserve updates can flip a screening reading independent of country or operator. Kamoa-Kakula's 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 reserve compression (~30% contained-copper reduction; mine life from 33 years to 21 years) re-priced the asset for institutional purposes without any change in country risk, operator quality, or commodity outlook. The matrix surfaces this dimension explicitly (Resource / reserves baseline + Mine life / horizon + Decision-readiness confidence) so a reader can isolate reserve-update sensitivity as a distinct risk factor.

"Material recent disclosure" provides the live-monitoring layer. Three of the five cases have disclosures within 60 days of this matrix update (Kamoa-Kakula 31 March 2026 NI 43-101 reserve update; Manono April 2026 ICSID partial decision; Lobito April 2026 Joint MDB Statement). Static dossiers age; live disclosures keep the reading current. The per-case-study NEXT AUDIT pill (v1.2.3+) and the public Audit Log are the institutional discipline backing this layer.

How to use this matrix

An institutional capital allocator can use this matrix in three modes:

Decision-shape pattern recognition. Where a new opportunity in your screening pipeline has decision-shape similarity to one of the five cases (a pre-FID DFI screening; an operating-supermajor re-rating; a disputed-tenure capital allocation; a post-settlement re-entry; a system-level corridor exposure), the corresponding case study and benchmark spread provide the framework structure.

Cross-case stress-test calibration. The confidence ratings and key-risk identifications across the five cases provide a calibration set for stress-test severity in the platform's DCF tool — what counts as "material price decline" in the screening context, what counts as "settlement durability failure," what counts as "reserve-update materiality," what counts as "trilateral coordination failure."

Engagement Protocol scoping. A shadow-screen pilot on a specific deal in the institution's pipeline can use the matrix to identify which of the five decision-shape templates most closely matches the live deal and accelerate the pilot's framework establishment.

What the matrix does NOT do

It does not produce institutional ranking. The five cases are not ranked best-to-worst. Each is a published demonstration of a different decision shape; a "best" reading would be meaningless because the decision shapes are structurally non-comparable.

It does not predict outcomes. The screening readings are dated 19 May 2026 snapshots; subsequent disclosures may shift each reading materially. Live monitoring is the platform's daily-watchlist routine, the per-case-study NEXT AUDIT cadence pill, and the public Audit Log — not the matrix itself.

It does not substitute for institutional credit memo work. Each row is a starting cell, not an answer. The full case-study dossier, benchmark spread, and (for Kabanga) the DFI Investment Brief Skeleton provide depth; institutional teams produce their own internal memos.

It does not capture every dimension that institutional screening might require. Fourteen dimensions are surfaced; ESG-integrity-detail, AML/KYC clearance, sanctions screening, sovereign-counterparty-credit specifics, IE-commission outputs, and several other dimensions are out of scope. The matrix surfaces what the platform produces; specific institutional dimensions remain the institution's own.

Matrix v1.1 published 19 May 2026 · Initial publication v1.0 9 May 2026 (four cases); v1.1 adds Kamoa-Kakula as the fifth decision shape (operating-supermajor re-rating) to match the canonical 5-dossier set used in the companion portfolio comparison surface. Editorial responsibility: Nikesh Patel, Honorary Consul of Rwanda in Mauritius · Published at platform version: Afrimintel v1.2.4 · Pipeline status at publication: 37/37 PASS · All cells trace to the parent case-study dossiers and benchmark spreads where the underlying primary-source citations live. Material errors or refinements are corrected per the Quality Standard's Correction Velocity SLA. Counterparty Extension discipline maintained: every party named in this matrix is treated as public-source-document subject; no commercial relationship is implied or claimed.