| Dimension | Kabanga | Kamoa-Kakula | Manono | Loulo-Gounkoto | Lobito Corridor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | Tanzania | DRC | DRC | Mali | Angola / DRC / Zambia |
| Province | East African Rift | Lufilian Arc | Congo Craton | West Africa Birimian | Multi-jurisdiction |
| Commodity | Ni-Cu-Co | Cu | Li-Sn-Ta | Au | Cu-Co + logistics |
| Stage | Pre-FID greenfield | Operating supermajor | Disputed tenure | Operating post-settlement | Operating + expansion |
| Reserve (Mt) | 52.2 SRCD | 466 SRCD | null (disputed) PEND | 57.0 SRCD | n/a (infrastructure) |
| Dimension | Kabanga | Kamoa-Kakula | Manono | Loulo-Gounkoto | Lobito Corridor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. NPV anchor | Lifezone FS TRS PEND | Ivanhoe NI 43-101 ($5.5–20.2bn LoM scenarios) INF-PROP | AVZ pre-dispute DFS PEND | Barrick AIF 2025 PEND | Multi-segment PEND |
| D. Discount rate | ~11-12% DRVD Inferred upstream IC |
~12-13% DRVD Inferred upstream IC |
~13-14% + dispute premium DRVD Inferred upstream IC |
~12-13% DRVD Inferred upstream IC |
Multi-segment PEND |
| IC composite | 5.5 INF | 4.7 INF | 2.8 INF | 4.0 INF | Multi-jurisdiction PEND |
| E. Counterparty profile | DFI debt anchor → bank syndication → strategic equity | Corporate balance sheet → bond → strategic acquirer | Pre-resolution: limited DFI; post-resolution: pathway-dependent | Streaming/royalty → DFI debt (durability-gated) | Multilateral cofinancing (US DFC + AfDB + Afreximbank + EU GG) |
| F. Sensitivity | PEND framework | INF-PROP cycle 1 closed | PEND resolution-conditional | PEND | PEND v1.3 cycle |
| Dimension | Kabanga | Kamoa-Kakula | Manono | Loulo-Gounkoto | Lobito Corridor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACLED admin1 | Kagera (Tanzania) | Lualaba (DRC) | Tanganyika (DRC) | Kayes (Mali) | 4-segment corridor |
| 12mo events | 4 SRCD | 34 SRCD | 44 SRCD | 302 SRCD | 86 aggregate SRCD |
| Severity | LOW | MEDIUM | MED-HIGH | CRITICAL | MED (avg) / HIGH (max) |
| Water basin (TNFD) | Kagera River → Lake Victoria basin | Lualaba River → Congo Basin upper | Lualaba tributaries → Congo Basin DRVD v1.0.57 | Falémé River → Senegal River basin | Multi-basin transit |
| Framework | Kabanga | Kamoa-Kakula | Manono | Loulo-Gounkoto | Lobito Corridor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFC PS1 tier | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 1 MATERIAL SRCD | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 1 MATERIAL INF-PROP | 1 MATERIAL PEND |
| IFC PS3 tier | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 1 MATERIAL INF-PROP | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 2 RELEVANT INF | 2 RELEVANT INF |
| IFC PS4 tier | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 1 MATERIAL INF-PROP | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 2 RELEVANT INF | 1 MATERIAL PEND |
| IFC PS5 (resettlement) | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 2 RELEVANT INF | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 3 CONTEXT INF | 1 MATERIAL PEND |
| IFC PS6 (biodiversity) | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 2 RELEVANT INF | 2 RELEVANT INF | 3 CONTEXT INF | 2 RELEVANT INF |
| WB ESF proximity | Tier 2 SRCD | Tier 2 SRCD | Tier 3 INF | Tier 3 INF | Tier 1 SRCD |
| AfDB ISS OS1 | 1 MATERIAL PEND | 1 MATERIAL INF | 2 RELEVANT INF | 2 RELEVANT INF | 1 MATERIAL PEND |
| Counterparty class | Kabanga | Kamoa-Kakula | Manono | Loulo-Gounkoto | Lobito Corridor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IFC private DFI | Active eligibility DRVD | Not typical at profile | Pre-resolution: limited | Durability-gated | Cofinancing structure |
| AfDB regional DFI | Active DRVD | Lobito Corridor exposure INF | Reduced pre-resolution | Post-coup reduced | Named cofinancier SRCD |
| US DFC | US-Tanzania MSP context INF | — | KoBold framework conditional | — | Named cofinancier SRCD |
| Streaming/royalty | — | — | — | Franco-Nevada / Wheaton precedent INF | — |
| Bond market | — | Corporate-grade eligibility INF | — | — | Concession-based eligibility |
| Strategic acquirer | BHP/Glencore/Vale/Norilsk/cathode majors INF | BHP/Anglo/Rio/Glencore INF | Resolution-conditional | Au majors INF | Trafigura+Mota-Engil+Vecturis JV SRCD |
Per-dossier deep-dives: Kabanga · Kamoa-Kakula · Manono · Loulo-Gounkoto · Lobito Corridor
Framework: Methodology v1.1 · §10 Bankability and Risk-Adjustment · Quality Standard · Audit Log