Loulo-Gounkoto
Kayes Region, SW Mali · gold · operated by Barrick Mining Corporation · post-settlement operating asset
One verified substrate, resolved three ways. Spot price as of 28 May 2026 — editable, refresh before use. Settlement 24 Nov 2025 · control returned 16 Dec 2025.
Sourced — named primary, datedDerived — Afrimintel calculation, sourced inputsAbsent — not stated to a verified figure
Decision: should capital go in, sit out, or wait?
FUND — conditionalscreen
Economics screen strongly positive at the current price — the question isn't whether the asset makes money, it's whether the settlement holds. The decision is gated on cost confirmation and durability, not on margin.
!L-G-specific AISC Absent — margin above uses the group proxy. The real call needs the restart-period unit cost.
!Royalty under the 2023 Mining Code Sourced at headline: 9–12% blended, gold-price tranched, per the settlement. Granular tranche bands at specific price points remain Absent — they set the state take on every margin dollar above the band edges.
!Settlement durability Derived premium +2.0% — window active through the 12–24 month restart; first major durability test still pending.
Decision: what would you pay, and is it cheap versus peers?
ENTER A COMPARABLEvalue
The reserve base is Sourced and the value is a multiple over it — but Afrimintel doesn't assert the multiple. Supply the per-ounce comparable from the transaction set and the loop resolves to an implied value. No NPV: Barrick hasn't republished a post-settlement complex NPV, so it's held Absent — this is a reserve-multiple read, not a DCF.
!Exact Dec-31-2025 L-G P&P reserve line Absent — back-check the asset-specific line in Barrick's FY2025 reserves table; do not use the group blend (~1 g/t), which would understate L-G grade fourfold.
!Attributable basis Ownership Sourced: Barrick 80% / State of Mali 20%, preserved by the Nov 2025 settlement. But the reserve line's basis is internally inconsistent in the record (the stated 80%-share figure doesn't reconcile with the 100% label) — verify against Barrick's FY2025 reserves table before any attributable math, or risk double-discounting.
!Post-settlement fiscal terms Absent royalty tranche schedule changes the cash the buyer actually keeps per ounce.
Decision: hold or enter — and what's the exposure if you do?
OPERATE — risk is fiscal, not geologicalexposure
Tier-One, operating, high-grade, tenure resolved. The exposure isn't the orebody or the plant — it's the sovereign. A fresh seizure-and-detention precedent (2025) now anchors the country read, and the settlement's durability is unproven through one restart cycle. Priced, not unpriced — but watched.
Settlement durability premium (πd)+2.0% — window active Derived
Country anchor — Mali TI CPI 2024score 28–32 band Sourced
Operating statecontrol returned 16 Dec 2025 Sourced
Sovereign-action precedentseizure / detention 2025, now resolved Sourced
Settlement: ~$430M reported · amount not company-confirmed3 t gold (~$400M) returned · permit renewed ~10 yr
Watch-items — where the risk read moves
!Settlement durability through the 12–24 month restart the premium decays only as the settlement survives a full operating cycle.
!Royalty-tranche behaviour at high gold prices headline 9–12% blended is Sourced per the settlement; reported conventions diverge (10% flat vs 7% progressive) — run both per Benchmark Spread Metric 4 in the case study. Band edges remain the live economic test.
!Subsequent permit renewals beyond Loulo the precedent generalises across the satellite operations.
Verified substrate — one source of truthThese facts don't move. The decision does. Highlighted rows are what drives the lens above.