Loulo-Gounkoto
Kayes Region, SW Mali · gold · operated by Barrick Mining Corporation · post-settlement operating asset
One verified substrate, resolved three ways. Spot price as of 28 May 2026 — editable, refresh before use. Settlement 24 Nov 2025 · control returned 16 Dec 2025.
Sourced — named primary, datedDerived — Afrimintel calculation, sourced inputsAbsent — not stated to a verified figure
Decision: should capital go in, sit out, or wait?
FUND — conditionalscreen
Economics screen strongly positive at the current price — the question isn't whether the asset makes money, it's whether the settlement holds. The decision is gated on cost confirmation and durability, not on margin.
What drives this decision
Margin test — your assumptions
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Cash margin per ounce Derived$2,869
Price covers cost by Derived2.8×
2026: 260–290 koz attributable (restart guidance) · SourcedBMO est. ~670 koz · divergent basis — flagged, reconcileDiscount rate · not published by Afrimintel (withdrawn 12 Oct 2026)
Gates on confidence — what would change the call
!L-G-specific AISC Absent — margin above uses the group proxy. The real call needs the restart-period unit cost.
!Royalty under the 2023 Mining Code Sourced at headline: 9–12% blended, gold-price tranched, per the settlement. Granular tranche bands at specific price points remain Absent — they set the state take on every margin dollar above the band edges.
!Settlement durability Derived premium +2.0% — window active through the 12–24 month restart; first major durability test still pending.
Decision: what would you pay, and is it cheap versus peers?
ENTER A COMPARABLEvalue
The reserve base is Sourced and the value is a multiple over it — but Afrimintel doesn't assert the multiple. Supply the per-ounce comparable from the transaction set and the loop resolves to an implied value. No NPV: Barrick hasn't republished a post-settlement complex NPV, so it's held Absent — this is a reserve-multiple read, not a DCF.
!Exact Dec-31-2025 L-G P&P reserve line Absent — back-check the asset-specific line in Barrick's FY2025 reserves table; do not use the group blend (~1 g/t), which would understate L-G grade fourfold.
!Attributable basis Ownership Sourced: Barrick 80% / State of Mali 20%, preserved by the Nov 2025 settlement. But the reserve line's basis is internally inconsistent in the record (the stated 80%-share figure doesn't reconcile with the 100% label) — verify against Barrick's FY2025 reserves table before any attributable math, or risk double-discounting.
!Post-settlement fiscal terms Absent royalty tranche schedule changes the cash the buyer actually keeps per ounce.
Decision: hold or enter — and what's the exposure if you do?
OPERATE — risk is fiscal, not geologicalexposure
Tier-One, operating, high-grade, tenure resolved. The exposure isn't the orebody or the plant — it's the sovereign. A fresh seizure-and-detention precedent (2025) now anchors the country read, and the settlement's durability is unproven through one restart cycle. Priced, not unpriced — but watched.
Settlement durability premium (πd)+2.0% — window active Derived
Country anchor — Mali TI CPI 2024score 28–32 band Sourced
Operating statecontrol returned 16 Dec 2025 Sourced
Sovereign-action precedentseizure / detention 2025, now resolved Sourced
Settlement: ~$430M reported · amount not company-confirmed3 t gold (~$400M) returned · permit renewed ~10 yr
Watch-items — where the risk read moves
!Settlement durability through the 12–24 month restart the premium decays only as the settlement survives a full operating cycle.
!Royalty-tranche behaviour at high gold prices headline 9–12% blended is Sourced per the settlement; reported conventions diverge (10% flat vs 7% progressive) — run both per Benchmark Spread Metric 4 in the case study. Band edges remain the live economic test.
!Subsequent permit renewals beyond Loulo the precedent generalises across the satellite operations.
Verified substrate — one source of truthThese facts don't move. The decision does. Highlighted rows are what drives the lens above.