Lufilian Arc · Cu · Ivanhoe (39.6%) / Zijin (39.6%) / Crystal River (0.8%) / DRC Gov (20% non-dilutable)
Investment screen
DFI · investment house — is this fundable, watchable, or a pass?
Life-cycle stageproducing Derived
Operating statusOperating; Kakula 2.0 mine plan post-May 2025 seismic event Sourced
Reserve scale (P+P Probable)466 Mt @ 2.82% Cu Sourced ≈ 13 Mt contained Derived
Reserve basis (verbatim)100% project basis
Risk-adjusted rate (§10)~10-11% — operating supermajor Derived
Where the record disagrees with itself
all desks — what is left to reconcile before you rely on a number?
Three divergences located, checked 31 Aug 2026. Each shows what two documents state, on what basis, as at what date. No record states which figure is correct, and none characterises any party's conduct. Method and evidence bar: Divergence Record · machine-readable: /api/v1/divergences.json
What was searched, and what was not. Three fields: reserve/resource, production guidance, ownership and control — against Ivanhoe's releases of 3 Dec 2025 and 31 Mar 2026, the Q1 2026 production release, and this platform's own feeds. Not yet searched: resource M+I, capex, NPV, IRR, government take, development stage, operating status, FID timing. Three of eleven in-scope fields; an unchecked field is not a clean field, and nothing is stated about the eight.
2026–27 guidanceGuidance of 380,000–420,000 t Cu for 2026 and 500,000–540,000 t for 2027 (3 Dec 2025, reconfirmed with the 2025 results) was revised to 290,000–330,000 t and 380,000–420,000 t on 31 Mar 2026, alongside an updated technical report, a stated cause — the release describes a revised mine plan, cautious geotechnical parameters, and the Kakula plan refocused on long-term infrastructure — with C1 guidance revised to $2.60–$3.00/lb for 2026. Disclosed supersession. Three things a reader can verify against the two releases. The revised 2027 range is the range previously guided for 2026. The two ranges are stated on different bases — the 3 Dec 2025 guidance table is headed contained copper, the 31 Mar 2026 release states copper anodes, different points in the chain separated by smelter recovery, the smelter having taken first feed at the end of December 2025 — so the ranges are numerically identical and not the same measure, and no adjustment is made between them here. And the framing of a May 2025 seismic event as the cause appears in secondary coverage of the company’s April webinar, not in the wording of the release, so it is not attributed to the release here. superseded
Reserve restatement — disclosed, and absent from our lineThe 31 Mar 2026 release states the 2025 Mineral Reserve is reduced by 4.4 Mt of contained copper, or 25%, against the previous depleted estimate as at 31 Dec 2024 — implying roughly 17.5 Mt contained before (Derived by arithmetic from two figures in that document, not a disclosed number). The Indicated Resource of 1,272 Mt @ 2.65% Cu is described as intact. Our reserves line carries only the post-restatement 13.1 Mt with no reference to the change. Not a wrong number — an absent one: a reader relying on our line alone would not know the estimate had moved by a quarter. Queued with the metadata fix, due 30 Sep 2026. superseded
Source document date — ours, openTonnages and grades agree exactly across our surfaces and the operator's report: Probable 466 Mt @ 2.82% Cu, 13.1 Mt contained; Indicated 1,272 Mt @ 2.65% Cu. What diverges is the metadata — our reserves feed dates the source to 2026-03-01 with no effective date, while the announcement was 31 Mar 2026 and the estimates are effective 31 Dec 2025. 2026-03-01 corresponds to no disclosure event located. Same class as the Kabanga resource record: the numbers are right and the date that governs them is not, which for a verification-first platform is the part that matters. Correction is an emitter-side data change; due 30 Sep 2026. open
Interest disclosureThis asset is in the DRC. Afrimintel's Editor-in-Chief holds Honorary Consul of Rwanda in Mauritius and Chairman of MUA Insurance Rwanda; neither involves mining, mineral assets, or any company named here, and neither carries an interest in the outcome of any record. Disclosed because the layer publishes in these jurisdictions. Sourced
Findings against the claimantNone located in the three fields searched, listed above. Both reserve records are disclosed supersessions by the operator; what is missing is on our side, not theirs. Not a clean bill on the asset, and nothing is claimed about the eight fields not yet searched. Sourced