Loulo-Gounkoto
Kayes Region, SW Mali · gold · operated by Barrick Mining Corporation · post-settlement operating asset
One verified substrate, resolved three ways. Spot price as of 28 May 2026 — editable, refresh before use. Settlement resolved 16 Dec 2025.
Sourced — named primary, datedDerived — Afrimintel calculation, sourced inputsAbsent — not stated to a verified figure
Decision: should capital go in, sit out, or wait?
FUND — conditionalscreen
Economics screen strongly positive at the current price — the question isn't whether the asset makes money, it's whether the settlement holds. The decision is gated on cost confirmation and durability, not on margin.
What drives this decision
Margin test — your assumptions
$
$
Cash margin per ounce Derived$2,869
Price covers cost by Derived2.8×
Anchor: BMO ~670 koz / ~$1.5bn OCF (2026e) · Sourced, third-party analystDiscount rate · not published by Afrimintel (withdrawn 12 Oct 2026)
Gates on confidence — what would change the call
!L-G-specific AISC Absent — margin above uses the group proxy. The real call needs the restart-period unit cost.
!Granular royalty-rate tranche schedule (2023 Mining Code, as applied to L-G) Absent — sets how much of that margin the state takes at higher gold prices.
!Settlement durability Derived premium +2.0% — window active through the 12–24 month restart; first major durability test still pending.
Decision: what would you pay, and is it cheap versus peers?
ENTER A COMPARABLEvalue
The reserve base is Sourced and the value is a multiple over it — but Afrimintel doesn't assert the multiple. Supply the per-ounce comparable from the transaction set and the loop resolves to an implied value. No NPV: Barrick hasn't republished a post-settlement complex NPV, so it's held Absent — this is a reserve-multiple read, not a DCF.
!Exact Dec-31-2025 L-G P&P reserve line Absent — back-check the asset-specific line in Barrick's FY2025 reserves table; do not use the group blend (~1 g/t), which would understate L-G grade fourfold.
!Ownership split for attributable value confirm the Somilo / Gounkoto state-interest percentages before moving from 100% EV to attributable.
!Post-settlement fiscal terms Absent royalty tranche schedule changes the cash the buyer actually keeps per ounce.
Decision: hold or enter — and what's the exposure if you do?
OPERATE — risk is fiscal, not geologicalexposure
Tier-One, operating, high-grade, tenure resolved. The exposure isn't the orebody or the plant — it's the sovereign. A fresh seizure-and-detention precedent (2025) now anchors the country read, and the settlement's durability is unproven through one restart cycle. Priced, not unpriced — but watched.