Methodology · Bankability Depth v1.3

How the bankability layer is built

From operating markers to cost-curve position and cash margin — what is modelled, what is sourced, what is derived. Version v2.137.24

Bankability is expressed differently for different asset types, on purpose. Forcing a single metric (e.g. a greenfield NPV) onto a producing supermajor would be less honest, not more. The layer carries the right economic signal for each stage, every figure three-state.

By stage

Development / pre-FID assets carry Sourced study economics — post-tax NPV, IRR and capex from the named technical report (e.g. Ngualla BFS Oct 2022; Manono AVZ DFS Apr 2020, flagged contested and issuer-stated). The study's discount rate and price deck are stated so the reader sees the basis.
Producing assets express bankability as Sourced operating markers (output, reserve life) plus a cost-curve position — C1 cash cost for copper, AISC/AIC for gold — cited to the operator's filings, with the asset's place on the global curve. Project-NPV is marked Absent-operating: it is the wrong metric for a running mine.

Cost-curve position and margin

Cost position Sourced — e.g. Kamoa C1 $2.60–3.00/lb (2026, Ivanhoe) within the lower half of the global curve; FQM Zambian copper C1 $1.34/lb (Q3 2025); AngloGold managed-ops AISC ~$1,881/oz (Q4 2025); South Deep AIC ~$1,737/oz. Where an operator reports only at group level (CMOC/Tenke) the asset-level figure is marked Pending.
Cash margin Derived — the gap between the current commodity price (Sourced, from the pricing/demand layer) and the Sourced cost position. This is a transparent two-input derivation (price − cost), explicitly labelled Derived, not a modelled cash-flow forecast. At today's prices the African copper and gold flagships show strong-to-very-strong margins; that is the honest current read.

Scenario operating-margin sensitivity

For producers, the layer carries an indicative gross operating margin (100% basis, pre-royalty/tax/sustaining) under three Sourced price cases (down / base / up): Derived = Sourced annual volume × (Sourced scenario price − Sourced unit cost). It is a transparent arithmetic on named inputs — GROSS margin on a 100% project basis, not a proprietary forward-curve model, not free cash flow, not after-royalty/tax, and not attributable to any single owner — copper uses C1 (gross of sustaining capex, royalties and tax); gold uses AISC (closer to net). For development assets the Sourced study NPV is the base case and the demand-scenario direction is shown; quantified scenario NPV is Pending where the study cash-flow schedule is not public. Price cases trace to the demand layer (IEA / WGC / market sources). Feed: returns.json.

What this is, and is not

This is a decision-grade economic substrate: sourced study economics, sourced cost-curve position, and a transparent margin derivation. It is not a full proprietary discounted-cash-flow rebuild for every asset — where the platform does run worked DCFs (e.g. the Kamoa scenario set reconciled to published anchors), that is stated as such. The npv8-common restatement is a first-order rate adjustment, not a like-for-like ranking metric, and contested or data-layer-only assets (DRC) are excluded from normalisation by design.

Cross-references: Decision Lens (Q5) · bankability.json feed · downstream method · demand & market outlook