Debt-sizing & DSCR — the lender's lens

The screen and the report answer the equity question (what is the asset worth). A development-finance institution is usually a lender: its credit committee underwrites how much debt the cash flows can carry, and whether that debt still covers in a downturn. This tool sizes indicative debt capacity and stresses the debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) across price scenarios.

A sizing indication, not a credit model. The cash-flow input is the returns feed's Derived annual gross operating margin (100% project basis) from a simplified model (production × (price − C1 cost)) — it is before tax, royalties, and sustaining capital, so a haircut is applied to approximate cash available for debt service; true free-cash-flow coverage is lower. Financing terms (rate, tenor, target DSCR, haircut) are illustrative assumptions you set, not a real facility. This tool indicates whether an asset's cash generation can plausibly carry debt and survive a price downturn; it does not structure, price, or approve a loan.

Two limits a credit officer must hold. (1) 100%-project basis, not borrower-attributable — the debt capacity shown is against the whole project's cash flow; a single sponsor's supportable debt scales by its ownership share (e.g. a ~40% sponsor supports ~40% of the figure). (2) Scope — these are the producing assets that carry a Derived margin; the development pipeline a DFI would actually finance has no margin scenario yet, so DSCR is Absent · not-yet-verified there (see the credit-memo generator). The magnitude of debt capacity moves with the haircut and terms; the downside coverage figure does not (it depends only on margin elasticity).

Asset (operating, margin-Derived)

Haircut to gross margin (tax/royalty/sustaining), %

Interest rate, %

Tenor, years

Target DSCR (sizing)

Cash available for debt service (spot)

—

gross margin × (1 − haircut)

Indicative debt capacity

—

sized to target DSCR at spot

Implied gearing

—

DSCR under price scenarios Derived

The down-case coverage result is independent of the rate, tenor and haircut you set — those cancel out. It follows from the asset's margin elasticity (how much of spot margin survives the downturn), so it is a property of the asset, not of the assumptions.

Scenario	Cash for debt service	DSCR

Cross-asset downside resilience

For each producing asset with a Derived margin: how much of spot operating margin survives the down-price case, and where a debt sized to 1.40× DSCR at spot would land in the downside. Values below 1.00× are marked: in that case the down-price cash does not cover debt service. No other grading is applied; what coverage a lender requires is its own decision. Assets without a margin scenario are Absent · not-yet-verified.

Asset	Gross margin (spot ↓ down)	Downside retention	Down-case DSCR @1.40×	Capex base
Kansanshi Zambia · Cu · operating	US$2,877m (↓US$2,259m)	79% retained	1.10×	US$1,250m
Kamoa-Kakula DRC · Cu · operating	US$2,723m (↓US$1,872m)	69% retained	0.96×	US$3,040m
Sentinel Zambia · Cu · operating	US$2,373m (↓US$1,864m)	79% retained	1.10×	Absent · not-applicable — operating
Sukari Egypt · Au · operating	US$1,060m (↓US$810m)	76% retained	1.07×	Absent · not-applicable — operating
South Deep South Africa · Au · operating	US$656m (↓US$511m)	78% retained	1.09×	Absent · not-applicable — operating
Obuasi Ghana · Au · operating	US$564m (↓US$431m)	76% retained	1.07×	Absent · not-applicable — operating
Tenke Fungurume DRC · Cu-Co · operating	margin scenario Absent · not-yet-verified	—	Absent · not-yet-verified	Absent · not-applicable — operating
Khoemacau Zone 5 Botswana · Cu-Ag · operating (ramp)	margin scenario Absent · not-yet-verified	—	Absent · not-yet-verified	Absent · not-applicable — operating
Ngualla REE Tanzania · REE · development (pre-FID)	margin scenario Absent · not-yet-verified	—	Absent · not-yet-verified	US$320m
Manono DRC · Li · development (contested)	margin scenario Absent · not-yet-verified	—	Absent · not-yet-verified	US$546m
Motheo Botswana · Cu · operating	margin scenario Absent · not-yet-verified	—	Absent · not-yet-verified	US$259m
Balama Mozambique · graphite · operating	margin scenario Absent · not-yet-verified	—	Absent · not-yet-verified	US$138m
Colluli Eritrea · Potash (SOP) · development	margin scenario Absent · not-yet-verified	—	Absent · not-yet-verified	US$302m

Margin returns.json (Derived, gross, 100% basis) · capex bankability.json · equity-economics companion: project economics estimator · method: how debt-sizing is built · v2.137.281
This is the lender's-lens analytical layer. It does not host a data room, model a specific facility's security/intercreditor terms, or anchor a live credit process — those sit outside a static analytical layer.