The screen and the report answer the equity question (what is the asset worth). A development-finance institution is usually a lender: its credit committee underwrites how much debt the cash flows can carry, and whether that debt still covers in a downturn. This tool sizes indicative debt capacity and stresses the debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) across price scenarios.
The down-case coverage result is independent of the rate, tenor and haircut you set — those cancel out. It follows from the asset's margin elasticity (how much of spot margin survives the downturn), so it is a property of the asset, not of the assumptions.
| Scenario | Cash for debt service | DSCR |
|---|
Given debt sized to the target DSCR at spot, the price is drawn many times from a lognormal distribution with the base case as median, calibrated so the down case sits at the 10th percentile — i.e. the down scenario is treated as a plausible P10 outcome with real probability mass below it, not an impossible floor. Each draw maps through the asset's exact linear margin model to a DSCR. The result is the probability that coverage falls below 1.00× — a single-factor (price) screening probability, not a market-risk or default model.
Red bars = draws below 1.00× coverage. The simulation is exact in the margin model (margin is linear in price); the assumptions are the price distribution (lognormal, median = base) and that the down case is a P10 outcome. This reconciles with the deterministic table above: the down-case DSCR there is roughly the P10 of this distribution. Single-factor — only price varies; capex overrun, schedule slip, ramp-up and grade are held fixed, and those construction-phase risks dominate real project-finance defaults. The breach probability is sensitive to the percentile choice: if the down case is nearer P25 than P10, it roughly doubles. A screening probability conditional on the model — not a probability of default, and true coverage is lower after tax/royalties/sustaining.
For each producing asset with a Derived margin: how much of spot operating margin survives the down-price case, and where a debt sized to 1.40× DSCR at spot would land in the downside (≥1.10× comfortable, 1.00–1.10× thin, <1.00× breached). Assets without a margin scenario are Pending.
| Asset | Gross margin (spot ↓ down) | Downside retention | Down-case DSCR @1.40× | Capex base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansanshi Zambia · Cu · operating | US$2,877m (↓US$2,259m) | 79% retained | 1.10× | US$1,250m |
| Kamoa-Kakula DRC · Cu · operating | US$2,723m (↓US$1,872m) | 69% retained | 0.96× | US$3,040m |
| Sentinel Zambia · Cu · operating | US$2,373m (↓US$1,864m) | 79% retained | 1.10× | n/a — operating |
| Sukari Egypt · Au · operating | US$1,060m (↓US$810m) | 76% retained | 1.07× | n/a — operating |
| South Deep South Africa · Au · operating | US$656m (↓US$511m) | 78% retained | 1.09× | n/a — operating |
| Obuasi Ghana · Au · operating | US$564m (↓US$431m) | 76% retained | 1.07× | n/a — operating |
| Tenke Fungurume DRC · Cu-Co · operating | margin scenario Pending | — | Pending | n/a — operating |
| Khoemacau Zone 5 Botswana · Cu-Ag · operating (ramp) | margin scenario Pending | — | Pending | n/a — operating |
| Ngualla REE Tanzania · REE · development (pre-FID) | margin scenario Pending | — | Pending | US$320m |
| Manono DRC · Li · development (contested) | margin scenario Pending | — | Pending | US$546m |
| Motheo Botswana · Cu · operating | margin scenario Pending | — | Pending | US$259m |
| Balama Mozambique · graphite · operating | margin scenario Pending | — | Pending | US$138m |
| Colluli Eritrea · Potash (SOP) · development | margin scenario Pending | — | Pending | US$302m |
Margin returns.json (Derived, gross, 100% basis) · capex bankability.json · equity-economics companion: project economics estimator · method: how debt-sizing is built · v2.137.23
This is the lender's-lens analytical layer. It does not host a data room, model a specific facility's security/intercreditor terms, or anchor a live credit process — those sit outside a static analytical layer.