DFI Decision Screen · Worked example · Procurement-grade
A single decision surface for a development-finance reviewer: primary-source-verified bankability, downstream risk, and safeguards alignment — each figure carrying its provenance state. The geology is table stakes; what a DFI underwrites is the bankability layer.
Primary-source verified against the Lifezone Feasibility Study Technical Report Summary (S-K 1300, Rev C.1, effective 18 July 2025) — read in-container 2026-06-22. Bankability figures below are FS-TRS values; corporate-financing facts in §2 are sourced to Lifezone releases (not the FS-TRS).
Post-tax NPV (8%)
US$1,579m
SourcedFS-TRS, 18 Jul 2025. Post-tax, 8% real. Reconciles prior "$1.58bn" to the exact FS figure.
After-tax IRR
23.3%
SourcedLong-term Ni price US$8.49/lb (FS-TRS Table 1-9). After-tax.
Initial capex
US$942m
SourcedPre-production capital incl. contingency — FS-TRS Table 1-14 (Key Project Metrics). Item 19 narrative rounds to 943; table value governs. Peak funding US$1,049m; total capital US$2,491m.
Mine life
18 yr
Sourced18-yr LoM confirmed (FS-TRS Item 19). Project life 20 yr incl. 4-yr build/ramp + closure. Exploration upside (Safari Link + geophysical anomalies).
AISC
US$3.36/lb
SourcedLife-of-mine.
Payback
4.5 / 7.1 yr
SourcedUndiscounted / discounted.
Reserve
52.2 Mt @ 1.98% Ni
SourcedOne of the world's largest/highest-grade development-ready Ni-sulphide deposits.
Contained Ni
902 kt in conc.
SourcedRESOLVED to primary source: 902 kt contained nickel in concentrate over LoM (5.2 Mt conc. @ 17.5% Ni) — FS-TRS Item 19. In-situ reserve contained Ni ≈ 1.03 Mt (52.2 Mt × 1.98%); both correct, different bases. No discrepancy.
Discount-rate note: the FS reports post-tax NPV natively at 8% real, so the cross-asset-comparable (npv8_common) equals the headline and is Sourced — no Derived re-discount.
The fiscal pillar a DFI actually underwrites — built on the asset's applied convention, not the statutory default. Government of Tanzania holds a 16% non-dilutable free-carried interest under the Kabanga framework agreement (Economic Benefit Sharing Principle); Lifezone retains operational control and 100% offtake. The dollar figures below are the issuer's own FS-modelled government take; the share percentages are Derived from them.
Royalties, fees, levies & duties
US$1.2bn
SourcedFS economic model, disclosed in the Form 6-K (18 Jul 2025). Blended bucket — consistent with Tanzania's 6% metallic royalty on US$14.1bn LOM revenue (~US$846m) plus fees/levies, but does not isolate the rate.
Corporate income tax (LOM)
US$2.4bn
SourcedFS economic model (Form 6-K, 18 Jul 2025). Tanzania CIT 30%.
Direct fiscal take
~44%
DerivedUS$3.6bn (royalties+fees US$1.2bn + CIT US$2.4bn, Sourced) over pre-take LOM net cash flow ~US$8.2bn (after-tax FCF US$4.6bn + CIT + royalties/fees). Derived from Sourced dollars.
Govt share incl. free-carry
~53%
DerivedAdds the GoT 16% free-carried equity dividend (~16% of US$4.6bn after-tax FCF ≈ US$0.74bn, Derived) — matching the issuer's EBSP "equitable share of total economic benefits" framing.
State free-carried interest
16%
SourcedNon-dilutable, under the framework agreement. The applied convention — not the statutory default.
Certification status — read this. This government take is Derived from the issuer's disclosed FS government-take dollars ($1.2bn + $2.4bn) applied to the real convention. It is not a blind-pilot-certified AETR: the issuer publishes endpoints and the two fiscal buckets, but not the annual cash-flow stream, so the full-precision rate cannot be reconstructed to tolerance. The share percentages are an honest Derived estimate grounded in Sourced dollars — not a certified figure, and not an invented one. Using the asset's convention (16% free-carry) rather than Tanzania's statutory default is what makes the number decision-relevant: a statutory-rate model would misstate the take.
What a DFI underwrites alongside the economics.
| Dimension | Position | State |
|---|---|---|
| FID guidance | Mid-2026 targeted FID + financial close (company word; umbrella "FID in 2026"). One secondary source says "late 2026" — company guidance governs. Reaffirmed at Q1 2026 results (30 Apr 2026): FID not yet taken; the company states (Q1 2026 earnings call) that the remaining ~US$18.3m of the Taurus bridge is sufficient to reach FID. | Sourced |
| Financing structure | 60:40 debt-equity; US$60m Taurus senior secured bridge (Kabanga-earmarked) — US$41.7m drawn / US$18.3m remaining as of late Apr 2026; US$75m raised H2 2025 (US$60m facility + US$15m equity) fully funded pre-FID. A separate US$25m registered direct offering closed 23 Apr 2026 (5.7m shares @ US$4.40; net US$23.3m) — ring-fenced for Burundi / regional exploration, PGM recycling and working capital, not Kabanga. Project-finance advisor Société Générale; competitive strategic-partner process run by Standard Chartered (advisors per COO interview, Jan 2026). | Sourced |
| BHP exit terms | Lifezone acquired BHP's stake via deferred consideration: US$10m due 12 months post-FID + US$28m indexed to LZM share price post commercial production. Reflects BHP's nickel retreat, not a project concern — cash-flow-light. | Sourced |
| Power | TANESCO grid; >90% availability through 2025 (94% Nov). | Sourced |
| Regional optionality — Musongati (Burundi) | 10 Mar 2026: 14-month exclusivity to evaluate the Musongati nickel-laterite deposit (~200 km SW of Kabanga; 2011 historical resource >140 Mt @ ~1.31% Ni), signed at the U.S. State Department. A real option on a second East-African-Nickel-Belt asset — and, for a DFI, a capital-allocation / management-bandwidth item to weigh against single-asset focus. New since the Dec-2025 baseline. | Sourced |
Lifezone is in advanced discussions with strategic/financial investors and off-takers regarding project-level investment, partnership, or value-accretive project divestiture. No agreement reached as of Q1 2026 (30 Apr 2026) — the competitive strategic-partner process is run by Standard Chartered; Lifezone is under no obligation to proceed.
A divestiture would change the asset's ownership/control narrative — material to a DFI's counterparty assessment. Monitor for the financial-close announcement and the outcome of the strategic process. Sourced
Conflict-event density and critical-habitat exposure on the route to capital.
| Layer | Reading | State / source |
|---|---|---|
| Conflict-event density (ACLED) | Kagera admin-1: low absolute event count in the latest captured window (ACLED Explorer, admin1). | Sourced ACLED Explorer (admin1) |
| Critical habitat | Ruvubu-associated critical-habitat sensitivity (Ashy Red Colobus) noted in the FS-TRS — feeds the safeguards / Component-E read, not the bankability headline. | Sourced Lifezone FS-TRS |
| Logistics / power | Grid-connected (TANESCO); not exposed to the off-grid power premium that burdens several peer Ni-sulphide developments. | Sourced |
Component-E architecture: critical-requirement gates, not a weighted-pie sub-score. Full framework mapping at /alignment/.
Status read from the FS-TRS (S-K 1300, eff. 18 Jul 2025) primary filing — granted certificates shown as granted, residuals shown as residual. Full framework mapping at /alignment/.
The platform's own audit posture for this screen — shown, not hidden. This is the difference between a brochure and a decision surface.
| Item | Status |
|---|---|
| Bankability headline (NPV 1,579 / IRR 23.3% / capex 942 / 18-yr LoM / AISC 3.36 / payback 4.5&7.1) | Verified against the FS-TRS (S-K 1300, Rev C.1, eff. 18 Jul 2025), read in-container 2026-06-22. NPV/IRR are after-tax; Ni price US$8.49/lb (Table 1-9). |
| Contained-nickel figure | Resolved 902 kt = contained Ni in concentrate over LoM (FS-TRS Item 19); ~1.03 Mt = in-situ reserve. Different bases, both correct — open item closed. |
| FID date | Company word (mid-2026) governs over secondary "late 2026". |
| Capex 942 vs 943 | Resolved FS-TRS internal rounding: Table 1-14 = 942 (canonical); Item 19 narrative = 943. Use 942. |
| Strategic-process / divestiture | Open — monitor; no agreement reached as of Q1 2026 (Lifezone Q1 results, 30 Apr 2026); competitive process run by Standard Chartered. |
| Government take (US$1.2bn royalties/fees + US$2.4bn CIT; ~44% direct fiscal / ~53% incl. 16% free-carry) | Sourced dollar buckets from the FS economic model (Form 6-K, 18 Jul 2025); Derived share %s from those dollars + after-tax FCF US$4.6bn. Applied 16% free-carry convention, not statutory. NOT blind-pilot certified (annual stream not published) — Derived-from-Sourced, not fabricated. |
| Safeguards status | Sourced Read from the FS-TRS: EIA cert EC/EIS/824 (Jun 2021) + resettlement EIA (Sep 2024) + water permit (Sep 2024) granted; IFC-aligned critical-habitat assessment completed (Ruvubu/Ashy Red Colobus, PS6). Residuals: JFM (FID condition precedent), concentrate-export permit, RAP completion. |
| COI status | Tanzania asset — outside the Rwanda/DRC/conflict-minerals editorial exclusion. Data-layer treatment only. |